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$FMS.CA Focus Graphite lookin’ good…

Posted by justiceisfalse at 9:41 AM on Friday, September 21st, 2012

September is almost done and as expected and written here, the $TSXV has taken a nice turn. Since my call on August 23rd my favorites names have put on 80-100% (I deeply apologize that I did not write about them before, but for the record, they were $CRE.CA and $XEL.CA). In the future I will try to be more forthcoming with my picks.

As such, even if the $TSXV has rallied nicely and I think that overall it is due for some consolidation, I really think the $FMS.CA chart is sexy – note the MACD divergence with the lower lows and the kiss of that downtrend break Take a look for yourself….

Making money on the $TSXV

Posted by justiceisfalse at 10:28 AM on Friday, August 24th, 2012

In the next few lines, I will describe the most useful piece of information I was ever given for making money on the $TSXV. This primordial rule of risk management was handed down to me by a banker at GMP Securities back in 2005 when I started out in this business. Had I followed it, I would have been far richer, less stressed and likely on vacation much more often.

The rule: If you are up 100% (a double) on any position, reduce your size by half – eliminate all the risk. Simple. In trading terms this is called scaling out.

In this market, with almost everything trading at a significant discount, 100%+ gainers will be commonplace. Be smart take money off the table and let the risk-free position ride.

Follow me on Twitter @justiceisfalse

$TSXV rally underway… right on schedule

Posted by justiceisfalse at 4:35 PM on Wednesday, August 22nd, 2012

After the breakout  in precious metals this week,  everyone and their grandmother has come out and said that the $TSXV is going for a ride, I would like to do a little selfless promotion and say I told you so in this post on August 15th.

Now that we have some confirmation and a little more confidence in this turn around, I think we could be looking for the 1400 mark or a ~17% gain from today’s close at 1245.82, as the first target. This may take the next 3-5 months to play out but I am confident it will.

I am also certain that some names will do better than others and I have my own picks that I will most certinly share with everyone in the coming days as well as a cardinal rule to this volatile market.

….. Everyone loves a picture… note MACD crossing zero line and ADX turning up: Bullish!

Seasonal run in the $TSXV coming?

Posted by justiceisfalse at 7:57 AM on Wednesday, August 15th, 2012

A variety of market commentators have come out in the last week or so with opinions that the $TSXV is about to enter it’s regular seasonal bull run which traditionally occurs from September to February. The best empirical data I have seen so far is this piece from Canaccord ( cropped file here: JMW_08142012crop).

When I look at the daily chart, it certainly see selling pressure has waned, but I would like to see a close above the 1211 mark on volume. The weekly chart is also looking to get out of over-sold territory. What will the catalyst be to begin the run?

$BGM.CA 43-101 @ 12.3MM ounces #gold

Posted by justiceisfalse at 9:32 AM on Tuesday, August 14th, 2012

The 43-101 technical report on Barkerville ($BGM.CA) was posted to SEDAR last night. They are looking at ~7.4MM ounces of gold if you use a cap on the resource and ~12.3MM ounces if uncapped. Here is the doc on SEDAR – scroll to section 1.6 of the summary.

From what I can tell, and I may be wrong, if being conservative, using $62/oz in the ground (as per the Canaccord research), the market cap should gravitate towards anything between $460MM and $760MM depending on the valuation being based on capped vs. uncapped respectively. The market cap at close of Aug.13 was $132MM.

$BGM.CA may just be what the $TSXV needs to break-out and reignite the industry.

#HFT action on the $TSXV and the coming revolt

Posted by justiceisfalse at 5:36 PM on Monday, August 13th, 2012

As is the de rigueur, when things go badly, people look at who they can point their fingers at. In the world of the $TSXV there have been a slew of fingers pointed, most recently High Frequency Trading (#HFTs)  or Algorithmic trading (algos) has been under the gun from the investing community.

Last week I received the email below with Background on Manipulative trades as an attachement.

IROC recently issued a policy on Manipulative and Deceptive Practices that are related to algorithm trading. 
 
I attach a commentary which I have prepared on one aspect of this situation.  IIROC is looking for comments and I am interested for any situations/examples which I could highlight to them.
 
If you know of any examples that I could explore, feel free to call me.  You can certainly pass this document along if you believe it is of interest for someone in your circle.
 
I look forward to hearing from you.

This gentlemen is the person I know of who is going to IIROC to try and curtail what seems to be the inevitable. The other is an investment advisor out of Calgary.

As an active participant in the $TSXV market as well as other exchanges and platforms, I have to say that the volume of algorithmic trading is visibly lower on the $TSXV than anywhere else. I also posit that the $TSXV participants in general are much less technologically inclined and slower to adopt new trends so the lower adoption rate isn’t that surprising.

The retail investor has been and will likely continue to be the largest voice of the negative side of algos. If you know nothing about the market and can’t read price-action, whether algos “fleece” you or someone else does is irrelevant. If you are savvy and can adapt, you can play ball with them. Two great example as of late are $GQC.CA and $CSQ.CA who have had good rides on solid drill holes. Algos will drive the price up and it is a wave you can ride if you can read the patterns of the stock churn and understand how these systems work – just don’t get stuck being a bag holder (!).

This story is just starting to unravel in Canada and I expect it to get a whole lot juicier in the coming months.

Five Year Total Return of Major Financial Assets

Posted by justiceisfalse at 8:53 PM on Tuesday, February 28th, 2012

A chart is worth a thousand words…….

$TSXV Week in Review

Posted by justiceisfalse at 5:52 PM on Sunday, February 26th, 2012

The $TSXV had another strong week. I was definitely looking for a correction, but that has yet to materialize – we may just rock ‘n’ roll into PDAC. I remain confident that the good issuers will prevail and the cream will rise in addition to certain hot sectors like Graphite and precious metals that will bring volume in. I am also keeping a close eye on Uranium and some interesting biotech issues.

There are a few points that I noticed this week that stood out:

  • Market Internals: Long side momentum players and the “Jitney Magic Men”(broker code 99 that takes out those key levels in the blink of an eye) are all over issues with good news and price levels to be taken out.
  • Risk Appetite: There is a sense that the worst is behind us and money is flowing into the speculative issues. There is money available to fiance projects of merit. Retail can follow this via http://canadianfinancing.com/
  • The CRB Index: The CRB index is crossing it’s 200EMA and is trending very nicely.

Here is where the $STXV stands going into Monday morning:

I’d like to see some larger trading ranges and divergence added to the MACD but I will take the levitation. I want to see that ADX continue to rise and would love to see more volume in this market.

By the way has anyone else been hearing about Zinc? Is it just me or it starting to make noise again?

$FIS.CA Fission Energy Corp.

Posted by justiceisfalse at 4:17 PM on Sunday, February 26th, 2012

Fission Energy ($FIS.CA) has been doing quite nicely lately with positive news hitting the wire for the last few weeks. They have increased their exploration budget, staked more ground and announced Three Step-Out Holes with “Off-Scale” Radioactivity.

Uranium has been under pressure since the Japanese distater last April but recovering nicely as of late with names across the board putting up nice gains.

I mentionned $FIS.CA a few weeks ago with good reason, here’s the chart… looks sexy!

$TSXV Week in Review

Posted by justiceisfalse at 9:53 PM on Saturday, February 18th, 2012

I though we were going to see  sell off into the end of the week as per my risk off post, but it looks like the equity markets are going to push higher and the $TSXV is going to challenge that 1,673 high – caveat: beware of a double top here and that November high. That being said, I remain relatively hesitant to take new speculative long positions but will re-enter into names I know, those that I believe offer a good value proposition. The overall volume on the $TSXV is in decline but we did start this rally on less. Again, ultimately I think 2012 will be a great year, but I would like to see a correction from the  post Xmas rally we have been seeing.

Here is where the $TSXV stands on the daily:

Here is the weekly view…. We need more volume flowing into this market to keep marching forward but this looks very promising for the rest of the year.