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VIDEO: AGORACOM Predicts TSX Venture Small-Cap “Melt-Up”

Posted by AGORACOM at 10:11 AM on Wednesday, March 11th, 2015

It is no secret that Canadian small-cap companies have taken a massive beating in the last 4 years, falling from 2,500 to 650 or ~ 75%.  That is a brutal melt down and here is a visual:

TSXV MeltUp

 

Nobody escaped unscathed.  If you were lucky, you survived – barely.  The rest just died.  AGORACOM survived largely because we saw the oversupply and called it as far back as 2008 when I posted the following right here on this same blog”

“Let the fly by nights die, consolidate those with decent assets and let the superstars stand up on their own two feet.”

Our industry, however, didn’t learn our lesson and chose to keep the fly by nights going in the name and pursuit of greed.  Unfortunately, Mr. Market doesn’t like an oversupply of non-performing assets, so he chose to teach us the lesson by turning fly by nights into zombies.  For the record, I want to thank Tony Simon for quantifying the term … but have to give credit to our very own Chief Market Commentator, Allan Bary Labouchan, for first applying the term Zombies to the TSX Venture Walking Dead … watch this clip.

THAT WAS THE BAD NEWS … HERE IS THE GOOD NEWS … I’M NOW CALLING A MELT UP

I’m calling it, right here, right now … the Canadian Small Cap Market is now entering a Melt UP Phase that will last for a minimum of 4 years. My call is based on the following:

  1. The Zombies may still be walking around but we all know who they are and they no longer pose a risk.
  2. Investors have ended the “mourning” phase and are now seeking new investments to build their future with.  This is supported by our traffic metrics clearly demonstrating investors are spending more time researching even while the TSXV bottomed out in 2014.
  3. The Buzz at PDAC was much more focused on making real deals and moves between the strong companies that survived the melt down.
  4. The survivors are trading at ridiculously cheap prices.
  5. The TSX Venture Exchange is starting to see healthy diversification via “real” companies from the tech and medical space.  I emphasize REAL because these companies have real products, customers and business plans.

More than just lip service, here is my video call.  If your small cap company is ready to take advantage of the multi-year melt up, be sure to get in contact with us to discuss our CASHLESS online programs!

TSXV MeltUpVideo

 

I Told You Mark Carney Was An Out Of Touch Moron As Bank Of Canada Governor .. Now We Have The Proof

Posted by AGORACOM at 11:27 AM on Wednesday, April 2nd, 2014

Courtesy Of National Post

 

A couple of days ago, new and SANE Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said:

bank economists have been struggling to adapt to a “new reality” since the crisis, making it much tougher to predict where the economy is headed. He acknowledged that the economy has “fallen short of our expectations.”  Globe & Mail

In other words, Mark Carney’s delusions that Canada was somehow booming and on the verge of needing interest rate hikes were WRONG.  Hell, I could have told you that …. Actually, I did, on several occasions.  My 3 famous “Mark Carney Is A Moron” posts

 

Wow … We’ve All Said “Analysts Suck” … But This Pie Graph Now Makes It Official …

Posted by AGORACOM at 10:48 AM on Thursday, April 18th, 2013

Via The Reformed Broker .. Click Image To Go To Story

No, this isn’t a running count of arguments between married couples … these are the accuracy of recommendations by 883 analysts of all Dow 30 stocks.

Flip a coin.

Better yet, figure it out by collaborating with your fellow AGORACOM members.

Regards,

George

Why Is VMS Ventures Being Sued By Vendor Of Previous Claims? Sour Grapes After Copper Doubles

Posted by AGORACOM at 10:23 AM on Monday, April 30th, 2012

The good people at VMS Ventures announced on Friday they are being sued by:

W. Bruce Dunlop Limited (N.P.L.) (“Dunlop”), the vendor of certain of the claims comprising the Reed Lake Joint Venture, pursuant to an agreement signed by both parties on December 2, 2008 (the “Dunlop Agreement”).   The claim seeks to compel the Directors of the Company to give up VMS’ 30 per cent participating, carried to production, interest and to elect to become a non-participating party to the Reed Lake Joint Venture in order to trigger certain alleged royalty entitlements, largely benefiting Dunlop at the expense of all other VMS shareholders.

In short, it appears Dunlop wants VMS to give the claims back despite receiving $375,000 and 3,000,000 (million) shares when the deal was signed back in December 2008.

Now, I haven’t reviewed the statement of claim so I’m not casting an expert opinion here – but my highly scientific analysis combining fractals and chaos theory concluded the following primary reason for the Dunlop claim:

Regards,

George

 

AGORACOM Interview: Bob Moriarty Says Graphite Is For Real & Gold Juniors Poised For 500% Gains

Posted by AGORACOM at 2:56 PM on Monday, March 26th, 2012

I’m very pleased to announce the completion of an interview with Bob Moriarty, one of the junior resource industry’s most respected commentators whose market thoughts can be found at 321gold.com and 321energy.com.   More than just a market commentator, I look forward to reading Bob Moriarty’s comments because he simply isn’t one to sit on the fence and hedge his words.  He makes a call and says it like it is.

This rare trait most likely stems from the fact that Bob was trained to make split-second life or death situations as a young man.  Specifically, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B pilot at the age of twenty and a veteran of over 820 missions in Vietnam. Becoming a Captain in the Marines at 22, he was one of the most highly decorated pilots in the war. He went on to ferry General Aviation aircraft all over the world for 15 years with over 240 over the water deliveries. He holds 14 International Aviation records including Lindbergh’s record for time between New York to Paris in two different categories.

As such, when someone like Bob Moriarty speaks, it behooves all of us to listen.  So what did we talk about today?

1. Why the explosion of interest, investment and growth in new graphite mine development? Is it for real?

2. Why graphite is an analog of oil.

3. Why the present ratio of the XAU (Philly Gold and Silver Index) over gold almost guarantees a 500% return on gold shares over the next two years.

4. Why the banking system is going to collapse / The implications of $708 trillion dollars in derivatives.

5. Middle East tension

This was a great interview.  One of the best we’ve had with a major market commentator, which have included the likes of  Eric Sprott, JF Tardif, Barry Ritholtz , Paul Kedrosky and Eric Coffin.  What made it one of our better ones? Though I agree with much that Bob had to say, I challenged him by playing Devil’s Advocate and arguing the case as presented by Wall Street and the mass media.  Though Bob didn’t budge and argued his case even harder, he was kind of enough to tell me how pleased he was with the interview.

The ultimate judge will be you, so listen in on the first few minutes and see if it carries you through to the fireworks at the end.

On behalf of myself and the entire listening audience, I want to thank Bob for taking time out of his Sunday to speak with us.

Regards,

George

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ZeroHedge / Alexa Ranking Contra-Market Indicator

Posted by AGORACOM at 3:18 PM on Thursday, February 16th, 2012

Don’t make fun of the image … OK, make a little fun … but you get the point.

1. Don’t bother with any Alexa data prior to 2011, as ZH was gaining steam.  The traffic trends I’ve noticed really come into play over the last 10 months or so … but Alexa doesn’t let you pull charts for specific time periods.

2.  I’ve always considered ZH to be a great fear gauge of the masses.

3.  When the masses panic and S&P is dropping, they run to ZeroHedge and ZH Alexa Rank Rises (see S&P 1,100)

4.  When the world is calm and S&P is rising, they go elsewhere (more traditional financial media) and ZH Alexa Rank Drops (see S&P 1,340)

The masses are feeling really good right now.

Mistango River Resources Answers: “So How Exactly Does a US investor Buy CNSX Listed Companies?”

Posted by AGORACOM-JC at 4:05 PM on Wednesday, February 15th, 2012

  

We received the following from Bob Kasner, Chairman and CEO of Mistango River Resources, the other day.  Given the fact many US investors are getting more and more involved with CNSX listed companies, we wanted to share it with all of you.

We have received many inquiries from US investors about buying CNSX listed companies.

There’s two basic answers:

1.Any US dealer that can trade a TSX stock through a relationship with a Canadian dealer can do the same for CNSX stocks. The Canadian dealers have access to CNSX. Canaccord’s name comes up most often.

2.Penn Trade is a discount broker in Coeur d’Alene Idaho that offers on-line access to CNSX. US residents that want to trade can open an account with them and enter their own orders.

The list of Canadian Dealers keeps growing, Kudos to CNSX.

Acker Finley Inc.

AltaCorp Capital

Barclays Capital Canada Inc.

BBS Securities Inc.

Beacon Securities Limited

Blackwatch Capital Corp

BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.

Brant Securities Limited

Brockhouse & Cooper Inc.

Byron Capital Markets Ltd.

Caldwell Securities Ltd.

Canaccord Capital Corporation

Casimir Capital Ltd.

CIBC World Markets Inc.

Citigroup Global Markets Canada Inc.

Clarus Securities Inc.

Commission Direct Inc.

Cormark Securities Inc.

Credit Suisse Securities (Canada) Inc.

D&D Securities Company

Desjardins Securities

Deutsche Bank Securities Limited

Dundee Securities Ltd.

e3m Investments Inc.

Edward Jones

Fidelity Clearing Canada ULC

FirstEnergy Capital Corp.

Fraser Mackenzie Limited

Global Maxfin Capital Inc.

Global Securities Corporation

GMP Securities LP

Goldman Sachs Canada Inc.

Hampton Securities Limited

Haywood Securities Inc.

HSBC Securities (Canada) Inc.

Independent Trading Group

Infinium Capital Corp.

Instinet Canada Ltd.

Integral Wealth Securities Limited

Interactive Brokers Canada Inc.

ITG Canada Corp.

J.P. Morgan Securities Canada Inc.

Jacob Securities Inc.

Jennings Capital Inc.

JitneyTrade Inc.

Jones Trading Canada Inc.

Jones, Gable & Company Limited

Jordan Capital Markets Inc.

Lakeshore Securities Inc.

Laurentian Bank Securities Inc.

Leede Financial Markets Inc.

Liquidnet Canada Inc.

Loewen, Ondaatje, McCutcheon Limited

M Partners Inc.

MacDougall, MacDougall & MacTier Inc.

Mackie Research Capital Corporation

Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd.

Macquarie Private Wealth Inc.

Manulife Securities Incorporated

Maple Securities Canada Limited

Merrill Lynch Canada Inc.

MF Global Canada Co.

MGI Securities Inc.

Morgan Stanley Canada Ltd.

National Bank Financial

NCP Northland Capital Partners Inc.

Newedge Canada Inc.

Norstar Securities LP

Northern Securities Inc.

Octagon Capital Corporation

Odlum Brown Ltd.

Paradigm Capital Inc.

Penson Financial Services Canada

Peters & Co. Limited

PI Financial Corp.

Pictet Canada L.P.

Pollitt & Co. Inc.

Qtrade Securities Inc.

Questrade Inc.

Raymond James

RBC Dominion Securities Inc.

Salman Partners Inc.

Scotia Capital Inc.

State Street Global Markets Canada Inc.

Stifel Nicolaus Canada Inc.

Stonecap Securities Inc.

TD Securities Inc.

Toll Cross Securities Inc.

UBS Securities Canada Inc.

Union Securities Ltd.

Versant Partners Inc.

W.D. Latimer Co. Limited

Wolverton Securities Ltd

A Snapshot Of My Tax Loss Selling Candidates On 1st Day Of 2012 Trading

Posted by AGORACOM at 11:03 AM on Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

As many of you know, I sold many of my TSXV holdings into November and aggressively called for a short-term bear market into tax-loss selling season (TLS), primarily based on the effect of Euro debt on the markets.  Putting my money where my mouth is, I sold Evolving Gold and Donnybrook Energy at losses but at much higher prices, giving me the tax-loss and allowing me to re-enter at lower prices in December.

Below is a snapshot of my tax-loss selling candidates performance on Day 1 of 2012.  I didn’t list these in advance but I tweeted and posted many of them throughout December.

Some notes:

  1. This is their 1-day performance.  Take their average price during kill zone Dec 15 – 23 and the annualized gains are massive
  2. I didn’t buy all of these.  In fact, waiting for a compliance clarification on trading my past clients [which arose in the middle of TLS but resolved in my favour AFTER TLS was over … Errrr :-( ] meant that I lost out on some of the best opportunities.
  3. My December junior trades were successful in Levon Resources and Focus Metals.
  4. I have pending positions in Avalon (red), Evolving Gold (green) and Donnybrook (green)
  5. I still like many of these at current levels … but remaining agnostic and only taking the ones that give me the best opportunities.
  6. In 2011, I had a 72% win ratio (31/43).
  7. I credit much of my success to my trading rules, which I posted back in May 2011 …. 10 Rules To Trade Juniors By
Here is the snapshot
Regards,
George

How Can Retail Investors Buy Credit Default Swaps (CDS)?

Posted by AGORACOM at 11:41 AM on Friday, September 30th, 2011

This isn’t my thing … though it should have been given my clear public statements on Greece’s inevitable failure.

Nonetheless, I get questions on it from time to time and I see posts on our HUBS, so I took a quick look at a few places and found Wikipedia has a nice summary.  I stress summary because CDS is a big boys game and 99% of you will need a full-service broker to advise you and help execute.  Personally, I think you can find an ETF for just about anything today and they represent an easier route relative to CDS.

[CLICK ON IMAGE BELOW FOR A LARGER VIEW]

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TSX Venture Volumes = Too Low For Capitulation = No Man’s Land Right Now

Posted by AGORACOM at 11:17 AM on Monday, September 26th, 2011

Volume At Beginning Of 2011 Much Higher Than Current Levels

I’ve had a number of people call, e-mail or tweet me asking about what I’m doing in this wicked TSX Venture downdraft.  In short, I’m stalking and waiting patiently for new entries.

Aren’t Prices Attractive Enough Now?

For long-term holds, there are some beauties sitting out there …. Donner Metals is a screaming buy for example.

For short-term trades, I believe we are in no man’s land right now.  I posted my reasons to Twitter and won’t repeat here. I’ll just paste my comments in:

CONCLUSION – I’m not buying trading positions at these levels.  I’ll either buy lower on capitulation confirmed by volume, or higher on a break to the upside.   Buying trading positions at these levels is no man’s land.

Regards,

George