Agoracom Blog Home

Posts Tagged ‘$CDNX’

Making money on the $TSXV

Posted by justiceisfalse at 10:28 AM on Friday, August 24th, 2012

In the next few lines, I will describe the most useful piece of information I was ever given for making money on the $TSXV. This primordial rule of risk management was handed down to me by a banker at GMP Securities back in 2005 when I started out in this business. Had I followed it, I would have been far richer, less stressed and likely on vacation much more often.

The rule: If you are up 100% (a double) on any position, reduce your size by half – eliminate all the risk. Simple. In trading terms this is called scaling out.

In this market, with almost everything trading at a significant discount, 100%+ gainers will be commonplace. Be smart take money off the table and let the risk-free position ride.

Follow me on Twitter @justiceisfalse

$TSXV rally underway… right on schedule

Posted by justiceisfalse at 4:35 PM on Wednesday, August 22nd, 2012

After the breakout  in precious metals this week,  everyone and their grandmother has come out and said that the $TSXV is going for a ride, I would like to do a little selfless promotion and say I told you so in this post on August 15th.

Now that we have some confirmation and a little more confidence in this turn around, I think we could be looking for the 1400 mark or a ~17% gain from today’s close at 1245.82, as the first target. This may take the next 3-5 months to play out but I am confident it will.

I am also certain that some names will do better than others and I have my own picks that I will most certinly share with everyone in the coming days as well as a cardinal rule to this volatile market.

….. Everyone loves a picture… note MACD crossing zero line and ADX turning up: Bullish!

Seasonal run in the $TSXV coming?

Posted by justiceisfalse at 7:57 AM on Wednesday, August 15th, 2012

A variety of market commentators have come out in the last week or so with opinions that the $TSXV is about to enter it’s regular seasonal bull run which traditionally occurs from September to February. The best empirical data I have seen so far is this piece from Canaccord ( cropped file here: JMW_08142012crop).

When I look at the daily chart, it certainly see selling pressure has waned, but I would like to see a close above the 1211 mark on volume. The weekly chart is also looking to get out of over-sold territory. What will the catalyst be to begin the run?

$BGM.CA 43-101 @ 12.3MM ounces #gold

Posted by justiceisfalse at 9:32 AM on Tuesday, August 14th, 2012

The 43-101 technical report on Barkerville ($BGM.CA) was posted to SEDAR last night. They are looking at ~7.4MM ounces of gold if you use a cap on the resource and ~12.3MM ounces if uncapped. Here is the doc on SEDAR – scroll to section 1.6 of the summary.

From what I can tell, and I may be wrong, if being conservative, using $62/oz in the ground (as per the Canaccord research), the market cap should gravitate towards anything between $460MM and $760MM depending on the valuation being based on capped vs. uncapped respectively. The market cap at close of Aug.13 was $132MM.

$BGM.CA may just be what the $TSXV needs to break-out and reignite the industry.

$TSXV Week in Review

Posted by justiceisfalse at 5:52 PM on Sunday, February 26th, 2012

The $TSXV had another strong week. I was definitely looking for a correction, but that has yet to materialize – we may just rock ‘n’ roll into PDAC. I remain confident that the good issuers will prevail and the cream will rise in addition to certain hot sectors like Graphite and precious metals that will bring volume in. I am also keeping a close eye on Uranium and some interesting biotech issues.

There are a few points that I noticed this week that stood out:

  • Market Internals: Long side momentum players and the “Jitney Magic Men”(broker code 99 that takes out those key levels in the blink of an eye) are all over issues with good news and price levels to be taken out.
  • Risk Appetite: There is a sense that the worst is behind us and money is flowing into the speculative issues. There is money available to fiance projects of merit. Retail can follow this via http://canadianfinancing.com/
  • The CRB Index: The CRB index is crossing it’s 200EMA and is trending very nicely.

Here is where the $STXV stands going into Monday morning:

I’d like to see some larger trading ranges and divergence added to the MACD but I will take the levitation. I want to see that ADX continue to rise and would love to see more volume in this market.

By the way has anyone else been hearing about Zinc? Is it just me or it starting to make noise again?

$TSXV Week in Review

Posted by justiceisfalse at 9:53 PM on Saturday, February 18th, 2012

I though we were going to see  sell off into the end of the week as per my risk off post, but it looks like the equity markets are going to push higher and the $TSXV is going to challenge that 1,673 high – caveat: beware of a double top here and that November high. That being said, I remain relatively hesitant to take new speculative long positions but will re-enter into names I know, those that I believe offer a good value proposition. The overall volume on the $TSXV is in decline but we did start this rally on less. Again, ultimately I think 2012 will be a great year, but I would like to see a correction from the  post Xmas rally we have been seeing.

Here is where the $TSXV stands on the daily:

Here is the weekly view…. We need more volume flowing into this market to keep marching forward but this looks very promising for the rest of the year.