Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 12:07 PM on Tuesday, March 10th, 2020
Completed a Spectral Analysis survey and a Synthetic Aperture Radar survey over the Sill Lake Lead-Silver Project, Vankoughnet Township, Ontario
The surveys covered all 22 single-cell mining claims as well as the four boundary-cell mining claims owned by the Company’s subsidiary, Canadian Arrow Mines Limited
TORONTO, ON / March 10, 2020 / Tartisan Nickel Corp. (CSE:TN)(OTC:TTSRF)(FSE:A2D) (“Tartisan”, or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that the Company has completed a Spectral Analysis survey and a Synthetic Aperture Radar survey over the Sill Lake Lead-Silver Project, Vankoughnet Township, Ontario. The surveys covered all 22 single-cell mining claims as well as the four boundary-cell mining claims owned by the Company’s subsidiary, Canadian Arrow Mines Limited.
The most abundant minerals on the Sill Lake mining claims were seen
to be saponite, a clay mineral from hydrothermal alteration as well as
orthoclase feldspar and kaolinite, the hydrothermal alteration product
of orthoclase. Principal minerals characteristic of the lead-silver vein
were determined to be galena and goethite. Galena is the principal ore
mineral of the low-alpha lead on the Sill Lake Project, which goethite
is the principal alteration product of sulphides like galena.
As the report notes, “In the centre of the Sill Lake Claims the
lead-silver deposit and underground workings are located. The spectral
analysis survey outlined a number of minerals spatially associated with
the deposit. Using the Target Vector Mineral (“TVM”) overlap technique
for the Sill lake Claims a number of areas of where three and four TVM’s
overlaps were outlined. One area on the claims outlined a general
north-south TVM lead-silver target zone from 65m to 190m wide and
approximately 650m in length.”
The anomaly covers the northern trace of the mineralization and is
centred on boundary cell mining claim 272137 and single-cell mining
claim 297898, with a minor response on claim 206180. Another minor
response on claim 204833, when plotted with the others, may suggest a
separate structure oriented perpendicular to the principal trend of the
Sill Lake lead-silver vein; and along the principal lithological contact
between ultramafic intrusive rocks on the north and mafic volcanic
rocks to the south, with conformable interbedded sedimentary rocks.
Tartisan CEO Mr. Mark Appleby said, “The survey showed us that there
may be much more to the Sill Lake Lead-Silver Project than anyone
previously thought. We plan to follow up the anomalies with detailed
geological mapping and sampling this summer.”
The Company is pleased with the results of the survey and has
requested Aster Funds Ltd to survey and report on the Kenbridge
Nickel-Copper-Cobalt Project as well.
About Tartisan Nickel Corp.
Tartisan Nickel Corp. is a Canadian based mineral exploration and
development company which owns a 100% stake in the Kenbridge
Nickel-Copper Project in Ontario; a 100% interest in the Sill Lake
Lead-Silver project, Vankoughnet Township, Ontario; a 100% interest in
the Don Pancho Zinc-Lead-Silver Project in Peru just 9 km from Trevali’s
Santander mine. Tartisan also owns a 100% stake in the Ichuna
Copper-Silver Project, also in Peru, contiguous to Buenaventura’s San
Gabriel property. The Company also owns a significant equity stake in
Eloro Resources Ltd, which is exploring the low-sulphidation epithermal
La Victoria Gold/Silver Project in Ancash, Peru as well as its recently
acquired Iska Iska property in Bolivia.
Tartisan Nickel Corp. common shares are listed on the Canadian
Securities Exchange (CSE:TN; US-OTC:TTSRF; FSE:A2D). Currently, there
are 100,403,550 shares outstanding (103,103 ,550 fully diluted).
For further information, please contact Mr. D. Mark Appleby,
President & CEO and a Director of the Company, at 416-804-0280 ([email protected]). Additional information about Tartisan can be found at the Company’s website at www.tartisannickel.com or on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
Jim Steel MBA P.Geo. is the Qualified Person under NI 43-101 and has
read and approved the technical content of this News Release.
This news release may contain forward-looking statements
including but not limited to comments regarding the timing and content
of upcoming work programs, geological interpretations, receipt of
property titles, potential mineral recovery processes, etc.
Forward-looking statements address future events and conditions and
therefore, involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results may
differ materially from those currently anticipated in such statements.
The Canadian Securities Exchange (operated by CNSX Markets Inc.)
has neither approved nor disapproved of the contents of this press
release.
SOURCE: Tartisan Nickel Corp.
Tags: CSE, nickel, nickel demand, stocks, tsx Posted in Tartisan Nickel | Comments Off on Tartisan Nickel Corp. $TN.ca Completes Spectral Analysis and SAR Surveys over Sill Lake Lead-Silver Project and Files Assessment Report $ROX.ca $FF.ca $EDG.ca $AGL.ca $ANZ.ca
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 5:10 PM on Wednesday, February 19th, 2020
SPONSOR: Tartisan Nickel (TN:CSE)
Kenbridge Property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14
million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper. Tartisan also has
interests in Peru, including a 20 percent equity stake in Eloro
Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property. Click her for more information
EV Predictions Show Strained Metal Supply
As sales of electric vehicles continue to climb (also electric buses, trains and e-bikes), among the metals we are most bullish on, are lithium, nickel, cobalt and copper.
By Rick Mills
One of the most prevalent current trends concerning mined
commodities is the shift, driven by the effort to reduce our carbon
footprint, is towards the electrification of the global transportation
system.
Electrification is part of the solution to averting further global
environmental damage/collapse due to tailpipe emissions from the burning
of fossil fuels in internal combustion engines. The Union of Concerned
Scientists says cars and trucks account for nearly one-fifth of all US
air pollution, emitting 24 pounds of CO2 and other greenhouse gases for
every gallon of gas.
As sales of electric vehicles continue to climb (also electric buses,
trains and e-bikes), among the metals we are most bullish on, are
lithium, nickel, cobalt and copper.
Copper is utilized in an EV’s electric motor and wiring. An electric
vehicle contains four times as much copper as a fossil-fueled model. We
also can’t forget residential chargers and public charging stations
which require a lot of copper – consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimates
that by 2030 there will be more than 20 million residential EV charging
stations requiring 250% more copper. One of the largest manufacturers of
public charging stations is targeting a 50-fold increase by 2025.
Lithium is obviously crucial in electrification due to its use in EV
batteries. There is no substitute for lithium and it is expected to
remain the foundation of all lithium-ion EV battery chemistries for the
foreseeable future.
Nickel is popular with EV battery-makers because it provides the
energy density that gives the battery its power and range. Increasing
the amount of nickel in a battery cathode ups its power/range, but add
too much of it and the battery becomes unstable, ie. vulnerable to
overheating and a shortening of its lifespan.
Nickel is used in both of the dominant battery chemistries for EVs,
the nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) battery used in the Chevy Bolt (also
the Nissan Leaf and BMW i3) and the nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA) battery
manufactured by Panasonic/Tesla.
Cobalt is a necessary ingredient in the battery cathode to provide
stability and to maintain the battery’s cycle life – ie, how many times
the battery can be discharged and recharged without loss of capacity.
Lately we have been writing a lot about current and expected supply
crunches in several of the metals we’re following. That made us wonder,
is electrification at the scale required to reduce our carbon footprint
enough to make a differenceeven possible? Given all the current demands
for them, do we have enough battery metals and copper required for the
construction of electric vehicles, and all the associated charging
infrastructure? Is the massive shift required to move transportation
from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electrics setting
ourselves up for gigantic bust, as scarcity of raw materials pushes the
prices of EVs beyond the reach of the average consumer?
In this article we’re getting out our calculators and crunching the numbers.
EV predictions – low and high
Currently, less than 1% of the world’s vehicles are electric, but by
2030 they are expected to represent about 11% of new car sales,
according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie in a 2019 report. In 2018 global
EV sales were just over 2 million units, about 2% of 86 million total
vehicle sales including EVs and ICE vehicles. 11 million EVs is over
five times as many, in a decade. Will demand, and sales, be that high?
We can’t know for sure – many EV predictions appear wildly
optimistic. But we got to thinking, why not take a low end and a high
end, pick two target years, in the not too distant future, then see how
many tonnes of metals that would require?
On the low end is UBS, whose 2017 case study report ‘UBS Evidence Lab
Electric Car Teardown – Disruption Ahead?’ is required reading for
anybody concerned or curious about the effects of electric vehicles on
their industry.
The report “tears down†the Chevrolet Bolt, a mass-marketed,
affordable electric vehicle, analyzing just about every Bolt component.
Its base case scenario for EV metals demand expects 14.2 million EVs to
be sold in 2025, a penetration rate of 13.7% (of global car sales).
This compares to a recent report by New York-based Investment
Management, forecasting a much more ambitious 37 million units will be
sold in 2025.
We decided to use that 37-million-unit figure and push it out to a
more conservative 2035, for our high-end, long-term scenario, and use
the UBS figure for our low-end, short-term scenario. (By the way, an
in-between forecast from the oft-quoted McKinsey’s Future Mobility
Initiative has global EV production at 13-18 million units by 2025 and
26-36 million by 2030. So we’re in the ballpark)
Lithium
A Tesla S with a 70kWh battery uses 63 kilograms of lithium carbonate
equivalent (LCE) – the standard industry measure of lithium production
which includes lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, both used in EV
batteries. The Chevy Bolt has a 60kWh battery so the weights are
comparable.
According to Fastmarkets, a specialty metals industry data provider,
global lithium supply in 2019 was expected to reach 363,000 tonnes per
year. Using UBS’ 14 million-EV figure, the amount of new lithium
carbonate required is:
14M EVs x 63kg = 882,000,000kg (882,000 tonnes) divided by 363,000t = 2.4 yrs of 2019 production.
By 2025 demand for lithium (just for EV batteries, not counting in
any other demand), at the low end of our projected EV market
penetration, could hit 871,000 t/yr, leaving a whopping great shortfall,
unless 508,200 tonnes of new supply comes online between now and then.
Now suppose the 14-million EV figure is light, and after 10 years of
Gigafactories and EV-makers pumping out more and more EVs, the number is
37M EVs in 2035.
37M EVs x 63kg = 2,331,000,000kg (2,3331,000t) divided by 363,000t = 6.4 yrs of 2019 production.
It’s true the lithium market is currently oversupplied, at about
300,000 tonnes of demand versus 363,000 tonnes of supply. This accounts
for the price slippage in the lithium market recently. Some lithium
miners are pulling in their sails, holding off on expanding operations
until better prices return. Albemarle and SQM, the two biggest lithium
producers, are both delaying plant expansions.
Australia’s Mineral Resources ((MIN)) said earlier this month
it is pausing operations at its Wodgina lithium project, a joint venture
with US-based Albemarle, due to “challenging lithium market
conditions.â€
Market conditions are difficult primarily for two reasons: low prices
due to oversupply from Australian hard-rock lithium producers, most of
whom sell their spodumene concentrate to China; and reduced Chinese
demand for lithium, after Beijing cut EV subsidies that made electric
vehicles more affordable.
Demand has also been dented by bottlenecks in Chinese chemical
conversion facilities that make lithium hydroxide from spodumene
concentrate.
A few years ago, Australian lithium producers thought they could make
a profit mining pegmatites (lithium host rock) despite the higher
capital and production costs of this “hard rock†lithium mining. Many
ramped up production to take advantage of record-high prices, creating a
supply overhang.
In 2017 top producer Chile lost its crown to Australia, home to the
largest hard-rock lithium mining operation in the world, Greenbushes.
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, by mid-2018, spodumene
had overtaken brine as the leading source of lithium chemical feedstock
production. From just one spodumene mine in 2016 – Greenbushes in
Australia – the number of active hard-rock mines grew to nine by 2018
year-end.
Since then, the $400 plunge in spodumene prices has really hurt
Australian lithium miners. They might be wishing they hadn’t all jumped
on the spodumene wagon at the same time.
A more “political†obstacle is the social unrest happening in
Chile, along with a newly invigorated resource nationalism, that has
spooked would-be foreign investors. A uniform royalty and tax regime is
also lacking.
Since lithium prices started climbing in 2014, Wealth Minerals is the
only new player to receive permitting required to complete exploration
work in the Salar de Atacama, having partnered with Chilean state mining
company Enami.
The second largest producer also has problems with water. Chile’s
underground lithium reservoirs need to be recharged by rainfall and snow
melt from the Andes, but a study found more water was leaving the salar
than returning, prompting water restrictions.
Neighboring Argentina is considered to be a risky place for mining
companies to do business. Despite the end of 12 years of leftist rule, a
shaky economy and a lack of regulatory clarity has meant the mining
industry and its investors are hesitant.
In September thousands of protesters hit the streets of Buenos Aires
demanding the government take action to address the deepening economic
crisis, amid reports of rising hunger.
Also, lithium grades in Argentina are low, around 600 milligrams a
liter, compared to Chile’s Salar de Atacama – the main production area –
which average 863 mg/l.
How about Bolivia, the third side of the “lithium triangle†stretched
across Chile, Argentina and Bolivia? Lithium contained in Bolivian
salars are higher in altitude, not as dry, and contain more impurities,
magnesium and potassium, than in neighboring Chile, making the
extraction process much more complicated, and costly.
Recently a German company, ACI Systems, tried to kickstart lithium
mining in Bolivia through a joint venture with state-owned lithium
company YLB. The agreement had them planning to install four lithium
extraction plants in the Salar de Uyuni – known to hold the world’s
second largest lithium deposit – but Bolivia canceled the deal following
a change of leadership at YLB, following the resignation of President
Evo Morales.
That 737,000 tonnes of new lithium supply required to meet demand in
2025? It looks to be in serious jeopardy. Chile has become consumed with
resource nationalism as it protects its national treasure, lithium, by
denying processing plant expansions and restricting water usage. Lithium
miners have joined in solidarity with protesters in country-wide work
stoppages, as Chile is gripped with a wave of social unrest due to
perceived and actual inequality. Mining unions in Chile frequently
strike and there is no reason to suggest they won’t continue to walk
picket lines in support of fellow workers.
The country has lost marketshare to its competitors; it now produces
about 20% of the world’s lithium compared to 36% four years ago.
It’s no better in Bolivia, which just canceled a German-Bolivian
joint venture, or Argentina, whose economy is a basket case. Australia’s
lithium miners are hurting due to low spodumene prices and have already
started cutting production in response. Canada’s upstart Nemaska
Lithium recently filed for bankruptcy.
With prices for hard-rock lithium mines low until the supply overhang
can get sopped up, it falls to lower-cost lithium brine and claystone
operations to meet the industry’s long-term supply challenges. But as
we’ve just outlined, there are problems in South America’s salt flats,
too.
Nickel
In September 2019, the average new passenger EV contained 14
kilograms of nickel in its battery, an increase of 20% over October
2018, according to Adamas Intelligence’s latest ‘EV Battery Nickel
Monthly’ report. 2018 nickel production was 2.3 million tonnes.
14M EVs x 14kg = 196,000,000kg (196,000t) divided by 2.3M = 8.5% of 2018 production.
37M EVs x 14kg = 518,000,000kg/ (518,000t) divided by 2.3M = 22% of 2018 production.
Nickel deposits come in two forms: sulfide or laterite. About 60% of
the world’s known nickel resources are laterites. The remaining 40% are
sulfide deposits.
Large-scale sulfide deposits are extremely rare. Historically, most
nickel was produced from sulfide ores, including the giant (>10
million tonnes) Sudbury deposits in Ontario, Norilsk in Russia and the
Bushveld Complex in South Africa, known for its platinum group elements
(PGEs). However, existing sulfide mines are becoming depleted, and
nickel miners are having to go to the lower-quality, but more expensive
to process, as well as more polluting, nickel laterites such as found in
the Philippines, Indonesia and New Caledonia.
Nickel sulfide deposits provide ore for Class 1 nickel users which
includes battery manufacturers. These battery companies purchase the
nickel product known as nickel sulfate, derived from high-grade nickel
sulfide deposits. It’s important to note that less than half of the
world’s nickel is suitable for the biggest growth market – EV batteries.
Tesla recently expressed concern over whether there will be enough
high-purity “Class 1†nickel needed for electric-vehicle batteries.
According to BloombergNEF, demand for Class 1 nickel is expected to
out-run supply within five years, fueled by rising consumption by
lithium-ion electric vehicle battery suppliers. It’s clear that nickel
is facing some growing pains since the industrial metal was burnished by
its new-found use in the transportation mode of the future.
Nickel’s inroads are due mainly to an industry shift towards “NMC
811†batteries which require eight times the other metals in the
battery. (first-version NMC 111 batteries have one part each nickel,
cobalt and manganese).
But a lot of nickel will still need to be mined for stainless steel
and other uses. Will annual world production of around 2.3 million
tonnes be enough for everything? It seems unlikely. Consider that less
than half of the total nickel output is Class 1 product, suitable for
conversion into nickel sulfate used in battery manufacturing.
Class 1 nickel powder for sulfate production enjoys a large premium
over LME nickel prices, but for miners to switch from lower-grade to
battery-grade material requires huge investments to upgrade refining and
processing facilities.
Last year, only around 6% of nickel ended up in EV batteries, as 70% of supply went into making stainless steel.
The nickel industry’s dilemma is therefore how to keep the
traditional market intact, by producing enough nickel pig iron (NPI) and
ferronickel to satisfy existing stainless steel customers, in
particular China, while at the same time mining enough nickel to surf
the coming wave of EV battery demand?
One possibility is to keep mining the more plentiful laterites and
convert the nickel product into nickel sulfate, as the Chinese are
planning to do in Indonesia.
Reuters reported on the $4 billion Chinese-led project to produce
battery-grade nickel chemicals, that Indonesia hopes will attract
electric-vehicle makers into the country, which is the second-largest
car-maker in Southeast Asia.
However there is no simple separation technique for nickel laterites.
As a result, laterite projects have high capital costs and therefore
require large economies of scale to be viable. The technology for
producing battery-grade nickel from nickel laterite ores is – despite
being available since the late 1950s – unreliable.
High Pressure Acid Leaching (HPAL) involves processing ore in a
sulfuric acid leach at temperatures up to 270ºC and pressures up to 600
psi to extract the nickel and cobalt from the iron-rich ore.
The advantage of HPAL is its ability to process low-grade nickel
laterite ores, to recover nickel and cobalt. However, HPAL is unable to
process high-magnesium or saprolite ores, it has high maintenance costs
due to the sulfuric acid (average 260-400 kg/t at existing operations),
and it comes with the cost, environmental impact and hassle of disposing
of the magnesium sulfate effluent waste.
Now, considering all the challenges in increasing nickel production,
due mostly to the dearth of nickel sulfide deposits and the expense and
disposal nightmare of mining laterites for conversion into nickel
sulfate, pile on the amount of nickel required for EV batteries.
We’re talking 8.5% of 2018’s total nickel production of 2.3 million
tonnes. That works out to 195,500 tonnes – more than the combined
production of Canada and the US (179,000t). Go with the high-end EV
penetration scenario, 22% of total production, and the amount of nickel
demanded, 518,000 tonnes, is nearly as much as Indonesia, the top
producer’s output of 560,000 tonnes. One mine takes 10 to 15 years to
develop. In that time is it really possible to bring online nearly as
much new nickel as the current two largest producers – Vale and Norilsk
Nickel – which in 2017 mined a combined 536,000t? The possibility is
incredibly unlikely.
Cobalt
The average Tesla consumes about 4.5 kg of cobalt, according to
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. 2018 production of cobalt was 140,000
tonnes.
14M EVs x 4.5kg = 63,000,000kg (63,000t) divided by 140,000t = 45% of 2018 production.
37M EVs x 4.5kg = 1,665,000,000kg (1,665,000t) divided by 140,000t = 11.8 yrs of 2018 production.
According to Adamas Intelligence’s EV Battery Capacity and Battery
Metals Tracker, in April 2019 the NMC 811 cathode chemistry saw a 251%
increase in deployment year over year. Despite holding just 1% of the
passenger EV market by gigawatt hour deployed (GWh), the percentage of
811s is expected to rise further due to the release of the Nio ES6
battery electric vehicle (BEV) and the GAC Aion S BEV, both equipped
with NMC 811 battery cells from China’s CATL, the largest EV battery
manufacturer in the world.
EV-makers want to reduce the amount of cobalt in their batteries
because it is over twice the cost of nickel, and the battery accounts
for around half the price of an EV. Therefore, cathodes with
nickel-manganese-cobalt chemistries (NCA) with ratios of 8 parts nickel
to one part cobalt and one part aluminum (NMC 811) are expected to be
the battery of choice for EV-makers going forward.
Apart from cost considerations, cobalt is likely to attract unwanted
attention to the awful conditions of cobalt mining in the DRC, the
world’s largest producer, including the use of child and slave laborers;
the unstable African country has made cobalt the “blood diamonds†of
the EV industry.
Tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Dell and Samsung are increasingly
being asked to defend their supply chains to ensure they are sourcing
cobalt responsibly. In December Cnet reported that International Rights
Advocates, a non-profit, filed a lawsuit in a Washington court on behalf
of 14 plaintiffs – guardians of children either killed or seriously
injured in tunnel or wall collapses. The defendants in the suit, writes
Cnet, are Apple, Microsoft, Dell, Tesla and Alphabet, Google’s parent
company.
Because it is mostly mined as a by-product of nickel and copper, end
users are at the mercy of those markets. If the price of either base
metal should fall, the incentive for mining cobalt will decrease,
potentially making it hard to source supply.
For all of these reasons, some industry observers think cobalt’s days
are numbered, but they’re wrong. That’s because cobalt is actually the
“safe†element in the battery cathode. Reducing the amount of cobalt
shortens the life of the battery cell. The battery has to last at least
eight years – the industry standard – if not, the owner can replace it
under warranty. Those battery replacement costs would likely negate any
savings gained from using less cobalt.
A lithium battery for electric vehicles has to be both strong and
long-lasting, through many charging cycles. It’s mostly the nickel that
gives the battery its strength, and the cobalt that gives it stability
and resilience, to ensure an industry-standard 8-year lifespan.
So, while Elon Musk claims Tesla can reduce the amount of cobalt in
its Tesla 3 batteries to zero, to cut costs, the reality is that cobalt
is an indispensable battery ingredient.
Formerly used mostly in superalloys for jet engines and hardware,
over 50% of cobalt demand now comes from the battery sector. Expect that
percentage to increase, not decrease, over time.
The vast majority of cobalt resources are locked within stratiform
copper deposits in the DRC and Zambia. The remaining tonnage is found in
nickel-bearing laterites in Australia and Cuba. The DRC accounts for
about two-thirds of cobalt supply.
Indeed no metal exemplifies “supply insecurity†better than cobalt.
China is heavily invested in the DRC, as it works towards its goal of
mass EV adoption. China imports 98% of its cobalt from the DRC and
produces around half of the world’s refined cobalt. For that reason
cobalt could easily be targeted by China for export restrictions or an
embargo (same as rare earths have been threatened), which would harm
end-users that depend on a reliable, price-competitive cobalt supply
chain.
The demand for cobalt is now directly correlated to the growth of
lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles. According to Argus Media,
the battery industry’s cobalt demand in 2018 grew 102% from 2017, to
16,629 tonnes.
Simon Moores, managing director of Benchmark Minerals, told the US
Senate he thinks that cobalt demand will quadruple by 2028, as EV market
penetration deepens. Benchmark projects global cobalt demand at 276,401
tonnes by 2028 – more than double the 105,000 tonnes of refined cobalt
produced in 2017.
Returning to our electrification forecasts, 14 million EVs on the
road by 2025 will require almost half (45%) of current annual cobalt
production. The largest cobalt producer is the DRC, at 90,000 tonnes.
All the other producers combined produce just 43,000 tonnes – ie.
<63,000t required for 14 million EVs.
And that’s the low-end scenario.
Mining companies in the DRC and elsewhere will either have to
significantly scale up production – notwithstanding big tech companies
wanting to stay away from the “blood cobalt†DRC – or new deposits have
to be found which will take several years to develop. If either fails to
occur, demand is sure to outstrip supply. Cobalt prices will continue
to rise – to the chagrin of battery – and EV-makers – who will pass on
the higher costs to EV buyers.
Copper
Conventional gas-powered cars contain 18 to 49 pounds of copper while
a battery-powered EV contains 183 pounds or 83kg. 2018 global copper
production was 21 million tonnes.
14M EVs x 83kg = 1,162,000,000kg (1,162,000) divided by 21M = 5% of 2018 production
37M EVs x 83kg = 3,071,000,000kg (3,071,000) divided by 21M = 14% of 2018 production
Copper is used for electrical applications because it is an excellent
conductor of electricity. That, combined with its corrosion resistance,
ductility, malleability, and ability to work in a range of electrical
networks, makes it ideal for wiring. Among electrical devices that use
copper are computers, televisions, circuit boards, semiconductors,
microwaves and fire prevention sprinkler systems.
In telecommunications, copper is used in wiring for local area
networks (LAN), modems and routers. The construction industry would not
exist without copper – it is used in both wiring and plumbing. The red
metal is also used for potable water and heating systems due to its
ability to resist the growth of water-borne organisms, as well as its
resistance to heat corrosion.
EVs contain about four times as much copper as regular vehicles.
Copper is a crucial component for auto-makers because it is a
fraction of the cost compared to silver and gold, which also conduct
electricity. There is about 80% more copper in a Chevy Bolt compared to a
Volkswagen Golf; an electric motor contains over a mile of copper
wiring. According to Visual Capitalist, by 2027, copper demand for EVs
is expected to rise by 1.7 million tonnes – almost the entire copper
production of China in 2017.
Notable and likely unknown to most people is the amount being
invested in public charging infrastructure, to deal with drivers’ range
anxiety.
Wood Mackenzie states that US utilities have invested nearly $2.3
billion in EV charging infrastructure. The consultancy predicts that by
2030 there will be more than 20 million (residential) charging points
consuming over 250% more copper than in 2019.
With each residential charger using about 2 kg of copper, that’s 42
million tonnes, or double the current amount of copper mined in one
year.
One of the largest manufacturers of public charging stations,
ChargePoint, is targeting a 50-fold increase in its global network of
loading spots by the mid-2020s. A Level 2 charging station requires 7kg
of copper, a DCFC station uses 25kg.
How are we going to find that much more copper? As we have written about extensively, copper is facing a supply crunch.
The base metal is heading for a supply shortage by the early 2020s;
in fact the copper market is already showing signs of tightening –
something we at AOTH have covered extensively.
Supply is tightening owing to events in Indonesia and South America, where most of the world’s copper is mined.
Copper concentrate exports from Indonesia’s Grasberg, the world’s
second biggest copper mine, have plunged dramatically as operations
shift from open pit to underground.
Major South American copper miners have also been forced to cut
production. State-owned Codelco has said it will scale back an ambitious
$40-billion plan to upgrade its mines over the next decade, after
reporting a drop in earnings, a prolonged strike at Chuquicamata and
lower metals prices. The world’s largest copper company also said it
will reduce spending through 2028 by 20%, or $8 billion.
Shipments from BHP Group’s ((BHP)) Escondida mine were
expected to drop by 85% in 2019 due to operations moving from open-pit
to underground. The largest copper mine on the planet is expected to
take until 2022 to re-gain full production.
These cuts are significant to the global copper market because Chile
is the world’s biggest copper-producing nation – supplying 30% of the
world’s red metal. Adding insult to injury, for producers, copper grades
have declined about 25% in Chile over the last decade, bringing less
ore to market.
Exacerbating falling inventories, grades and copper market tightness,
Chinese smelting companies have reportedly indicated they will cut
smelter output this year, burdened by low fees they charge mining
companies to process copper ores.
Meanwhile demand for copper keeps going up and up. Copper products
are needed in homes, vehicles, computers, TVs, microwaves, public
transportation systems (trains, airplanes) and the latest copper
consumable, electric vehicles.
Consider the amount of copper needed to fix the global infrastructure deficit.
According to the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), the US
needs to spend $4.6 trillion between 2016 and 2024 in order to upgrade
all its infrastructure to an acceptable standard. But only $2.6T has
been earmarked, leaving a funding gap of $2 trillion.
Infrastructure is the physical systems – the roads, power
transmission lines and towers, airports, dams, buses, subways, railways,
ports, bridges, power plants, water delivery systems, hospitals, sewage
treatment, etc. – that are the building blocks, the Lego pieces, which
fuel a country’s, city’s or community’s economic, social and financial
development.
Economic growth necessitates building more infrastructure to meet
increasing demands on power, heat, water, roads and the like. As
populations grow, they need more houses, hospitals, subway lines, roads,
recreational facilities, sports stadiums.
How much metal will be required to upgrade US freight and passenger
rail? We can only estimate but consider the amount of copper it takes to
build a high-speed train network: 10 tonnes per kilometer of track.
Powerful electric locomotives contain over eight tonnes of copper,
according to the Copper Alliance.
Public transit is lacking in the US compared to Canada and Europe.
New subway and light-rail systems are badly needed to get motorists out
of their cars. Buses will also be in high demand.
A hybrid electric bus has 196 pounds, and 814 pounds of copper go
into a hybrid-electric bus, mostly the battery. The Copper Alliance
states that the largest EV maker, China’s BYD, used an estimated 26
million pounds of copper in 2016.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) consists of a vast network of
railways, pipelines, highways and ports that would extend west through
the mountainous former Soviet republics and south to Pakistan, India and
Southeast Asia.
Research by the International Copper Association found BRI is likely
to increase demand for copper in over 60 Eurasian countries to 6.5
million tonnes by 2027, a 22% increase from 2017 levels.
There’s also the global 5G buildout. Upgrading cellular networks from
4G to 5G is expected to result in a vast improvement in service,
including nearly 100% network availability, 1,000 times the bandwidth
and 10 gigabit-per-second (Gbps) speeds. With 5G, it’s possible to
download a movie in less than 4 seconds compared to about 6 minutes on
4G.
However 5G isn’t only about mobile speeds, it’s also the foundation
for the “Internet of Things†that connects a multitude of industrial
computer networks, and virtual reality (VR) applications across a wide
swath of industries.
Microwave Journal explains:
The result of this is that, even though 5G is a wireless
technology, its deployment will involve a lot more fiber and copper
cable to connect equipment, both within the radio access network domain
and back to the routing and core network infrastructure. Furthermore, 5G
will require many more antennas than 4G ever did. That’s why this
continuous demand for faster and more efficient connectivity across the
world calls for state-of-the-art cable infrastructure to make 5G
possible and to break down these barriers.
Artificial intelligence is not often associated with mining, but
according to a 2019 report titled ‘The Geopolitics of Critical Metals’,
[AI and 5G] will form the backbone of the next “industrial†revolution and their complex systems are voracious consumers of critical materials.
In Japan, demand for copper cables is seen growing 2.6% from 696,000
tonnes in 2018 to 714,000t in 2022, and copper for rolled copper alloy
products growing 6% to 690,000t during the same period, according to the
state-run Japan Oil, Gas and Metal National Corporation, or JOGMEC.
S&P Global Platts quotes the chairman of the Japan Mining
Industry Association saying that the demand for electric vehicles and
the rollout of 5G telecommunication infrastructure will support future
demand for copper, zinc, lead and nickel.
Another report by Roskill forecasts total copper consumption will
exceed 43 million tonnes by 2035, driven by population and GDP growth,
urbanization and electricity demand. Electric vehicles and associated
network infrastructure may contribute between 3.1 and 4Mt of net growth
by 2035, according to Roskill.
American lifestyle
It has been estimated that by the year 2050 our global population will reach 10 billion people.
The developing world’s urban centers are expected to burgeon, drawing
96% of the additional 1.4 billion people by 2030. Due to the overall
growing global population – but especially an exploding urban population
(urban populations consume much more food, energy, and durable goods
than rural populations) – demand for water, food, housing, heat, energy,
clothing, and consumer goods is going to increase at an astounding
rate.
We already have one billion people out of today’s current population slated to become significant consumers by 2025.
Another 2.8 billion people will be added to the world between now and
2050. Most will not be Americans but they are going to want a lot of
things that we in the Western developed world take for granted –
electricity, plumbing, appliances, AC etc.
But what if all these new one billion consumers were to start
consuming, over the next 10 years, just like an American? What’s going
to happen to the world’s mineral resources if one billion more
‘Americans’ are added to the consuming class? Here’s what each of them
would need to consume, per year, to live the American lifestyle…
One billion new consumers by 2025. Can everyone who wants to, live an
American lifestyle? Can everyone everywhere else have everything we in
North America have?
If we mined every last discovered, and undiscovered, pound of
land-based copper, the expected 8.2 billion people in the developing
world would only get three quarters of the way towards copper use parity
per capita with the US.
Of course the rest of us, the other 1.8 billion people expected to be
on this planet by 2050, aren’t going to be easing up, we’re still going
to be using copper at prestigious rates while our developing world
cousins play catch up.
Now add an extra 1.1 million tonnes of copper demanded by 14 million
EVs by 2025 – just five years away – in the low-EV scenario of 14
million units. And another 42 million tonnes of copper to be deployed
for the 20 million charging points predicted by Wood Mackenzie? The
numbers are starting to get stupid.
Critical minerals collaboration
The mining of critical minerals is finally getting the attention it
deserves after many years of neglect by Canada and the United States.
The lack of a plan to build a domestic supply chain of metals to serve
the clean, green economy of the future has put North America far behind
China, a country that has prioritized having a ready and plentiful
supply of materials deemed essential to the economy and defense of a
nation.
The deficiency is a fact North American politicians have just woken
up to, and a subject we at AOTH have been writing about for over a
decade.
On Jan. 9, Canada and the United States announced the Canada-US Joint
Plan on Critical Minerals Collaboration, to advance “our mutual
interest in securing supply chains for the critical minerals needed for
important manufacturing sectors, including communication technology,
aerospace and defence, and clean technology,†reads a press release from
Natural Resources Canada.
The announcement follows a June 2019 commitment by Prime Minister
Trudeau and President Trump to collaborate on critical minerals.
Reducing dependence
In fact the Trump administration was ahead of Canada in pin-pointing
the lack of domestic supply and how that poses a threat to national
security.
In 2017 Trump signed an executive (presidential) order to develop a
strategy to ensure a secure and reliable supply of critical minerals,
within 180 days. The directive was issued the day after the US
Geological Survey published an updated assessment of the country’s
critical minerals resources. In its report, the USGS said of 23 minerals
analyzed, the US relies on foreign supplies for at least 50% of all but
two: beryllium and titanium. The list was later widened to 35 critical
minerals.
What collaboration means
Cutting through the government-speak, the main points of interest to mining investors are:
The Joint Plan will guide efforts to secure critical minerals supply chains for “strategic industries†(undefined) and defence.
The Canadian mining sector is setting up a task force to work with
Ottawa and Washington, to identify critical minerals projects and study
“how to overcome some of the R&D challenges to drive down costs and
be competitive with China,†the Globe and Mail reported, quoting Pierre
Gratton.
In December Canada joined the US-led Energy Resource Governance
Initiative, which aims, through multiple countries, to promote supply
chains for critical energy minerals such as uranium.
Along with Canada, the US is seeking alliances with Australia, Japan
and the European Union, which also fear mineral dependency on China.
Canada supplies 13 of the 35 minerals the US has identified as critical. They are:
This is about the U.S. wanting to make sure it has access to a
reliable supply of metals for its defence industries and manufacturing
sector,†Pierre Gratton, president of the Mining Association of Canada,
told the Globe and Mail.
Gratton said Canada is well-positioned to benefit from collaborating
with the US, and the US-Canada collaboration on critical minerals is
particularly interesting to us at AOTH.
Conclusion
At the start of this article we asked a simple question: Given the
current demands for copper, nickel, lithium and cobalt, do we have
enough supply required for the construction of electric vehicles, and
all the associated charging infrastructure? Is the massive shift
required to move transportation from internal combustion engine (ICE)
vehicles to electrics setting ourselves up for gigantic bust, as
scarcity of raw materials pushes the prices of EVs beyond the reach of
the average consumer?
The answer, in our humble opinion is while it’s within the realm of
possibility (though highly unlikely) for the mining industry to meet the
metals demand required by a low-EV scenario of 14 million units by
2025, anything beyond that is virtually impossible.
For lithium, there are supply problems in all the main producer
countries – Australia, Chile and Argentina. China has pretty well
cornered the market on nickel sulfate production, with all the nickel
processing facilities it is planning for Indonesia. Even if somehow
laterite nickel ores could be en masse converted to battery-grade
nickel, without destroying nickel companies and the environment, at the
very least nickel sulfate prices will eventually spike to unsustainable
levels.
The cobalt supply is likely to get tighter as more companies shun the
DRC and try to get the essential EV ingredient elsewhere. Copper’s
long-term structural supply deficit plus skyrocketing demand for
infrastucture build-outs, EVs, 5G networks and insatiable demand for
Western-type consumer goods, will likely support higher copper prices
for a long time.
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 11:22 AM on Tuesday, February 11th, 2020
SPONSOR: Tartisan Nickel (TN:CSE)
Kenbridge Property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14
million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper. Tartisan also has
interests in Peru, including a 20 percent equity stake in Eloro
Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property. Click her for more information
The burgeoning electric vehicle (EV) sector has taken the mining industry by storm in the last five years
The burgeoning electric vehicle (EV) sector has taken the
mining industry by storm in the last five years with the metals and
minerals used in the production of battery energy storage, including
cobalt, lithium, graphite, nickel and vanadium taking centre stage.
Nickel takes the lead as battery metal of choice
The significant interest in these battery metals has caused a flurry
of mining companies to enter the race to extract them, causing prices to
surge.
Fast-forward to 2019 and the picture looks very different, prices
have plummeted, mostly due to demand struggling to keep up with supply,
and in some cases better metal substitutes being found.
However, one thing remains clear, the future global demand outlook
for EVs remains strong and so does the need for energy storage in
renewable energy applications.
Cobalt and lithium – the battery metals front runners
According to Diego Oliva-Velez, commodities analyst at Fitch Solutions, lithium
and cobalt prices are likely to remain subdued over the coming months
as demand struggles to keep up with new supply coming online.
Because cobalt and lithium have received significant investor
interest since 2015 due to their increasing use in lithium-ion
batteries, which power the burgeoning electric vehicle industry, the
resultant demand and prices for both metals have been on the rise.
“For instance, cobalt prices rose over 300% in the period from 2016
to 2018, while South America lithium carbonate prices rallied over 170%
during a similar time frame,†says Oliva-Velez.
“However, rising prices have also spurred a flurry of investments
into new cobalt and lithium projects that have significantly loosened
both markets – which caused prices to start to unwind since 2018.
The demand outlook for both EV metals waned in 2019, as the removal
of Chinese government subsidies to EV manufacturers caused a slowdown
across the industry.
In March 2019, the Chinese government announced that from July
onwards subsidies for pure battery electric vehicles with driving ranges
of 400 km or more would be cut by half.
Furthermore, to qualify for subsidies, electric vehicles now need to
have a range of at least 250 km, compared with 150 km previously.
Without these subsidies, Chinese EV manufacturers are having to raise
the prices of their vehicles, leading to reduced sales and output
numbers over the past months, as they become less affordable to
consumers.
However, the Fitch Solutions Autos team believes the subsidy cuts
will only have a short-term impact on China’s EV market, as revised
government policy calls for a more profound engagement from
manufacturers to preserve EV market growth rates, while rising
competition will continue to support the EV segment.
Fitch Solutions’ Autos team also highlight that the new policy sets
out sales targets for car manufacturers, whereby they must generate
credits for selling EVs, which should prop up EV production.
Furthermore, they expect carmakers will move to offset the impact of
the EV subsidies cuts with price reductions, which will see demand for
EVs remain robust over 2020.
Fitch Solutions forecast EV sales in China to average 20% year-on-year in 2020, slightly up from 19% in 2019.
Despite announcements of supply cutbacks (such as the premature
closure of Glencore’s Mutanda cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of
Congo in late 2019) and rising demand, there are a number of new
projects due to come online, including Chemaf Sarl’s Mutoshi mine in the
DRC, CleanTeQ Holdings’ Sunrise nickel cobalt scandium project and
Australian Mines’ Sconi project, both in Australia.
As a result, Fitch Solutions retains the view that both markets will
remain largely in oversupply next year – keeping a lid on prices.
Nevertheless, Oliva-Velez expects demand growth for lithium and
cobalt to improve in 2020 following a disappointing 2019, as low prices
attract purchases from EV battery manufacturers and Chinese EV sales
hold strong.
Nickel takes the lead as battery metal of choice
Fitch Solutions’ outlook for nickel over 2020 is more positive as the
market will remain in deficit, buoyed by a ban on Indonesian ore
exports from January 2020 and ongoing support from the Chinese stainless
steel sector.
Despite a steep fall in prices since October 2019, Fitch Solutions
believe that prices will rebound from spot levels into 2020 and average
US$15 000/t throughout 2020, buoyed by a tight fundamental picture.
Moreover, the global nickel market is expected to remain in a deficit
of 12 200 t in 2020, driven by sustained demand from stainless steel
production in China.
Based on findings from Fitch Solutions’
own proprietary model, nickel is set to be the primary demand
beneficiary of the EV revolution on the metals side in the longer term
beyond 2021, significantly ahead of lithium or cobalt – as the use of
nickel-heavy NMC cathodes among manufacturers become increasingly
prevalent over the same period.
The NMC cathode will become the chemistry of choice for EV
manufacturers over the coming years, due to its high energy density,
thermal stability and low cost.
Currently, most NMC cathodes are referred to as NMC 622, so-called
due to the ratio of metals they contain (6 parts nickel, 2 parts
manganese and 2 parts cobalt).
However, due to concerns relating to the price and sustainable
sourcing of cobalt, battery manufacturers are in the process of
increasing the share of nickel in these cathodes in order to achieve a
ratio of 811 (8 parts nickel, 1 part manganese and 1 part cobalt).
“We forecast that the share of NMC cathodes will account for 82% of
all new NMC battery sales by 2029, up from just 2% in 2019. This
transition will lead to an increase in average nickel content from 7.24
kg to 16.76 kg for each NMC cathode produced over the same period,†says
Oliva-Velez.
Nickel upsurge reduces demand for cobalt
The transition towards nickel-heavy NMC 811 cathodes will lead to
lower demand for cobalt, which will increasingly be shunned by
manufacturers due to price and sustainability considerations.
The unstable and restricted supply of cobalt from the DRC – the
largest producer by a significant margin – makes the metal prone to
price spikes, as witnessed over 2017.
Secondly, the questionable ethical nature of cobalt supplied by the
DRC, due to the prevalence of child labour and conflict mines in the
country, will drive battery makers away from the metal in an effort to
mitigate reputational risk.
“As a result, we forecast cumulative demand for cobalt from EV
batteries over 2019 to 2028 to amount to 218 000 t, considerably less
than nickel, lithium and even manganese,†Oliva-Velez points out.
Lithium remains an integral battery metal going forward
Lithium is found in both the anode and cathode of all lithium-ion
battery chemistries, being the key element that allows batteries to
charge and discharge.
Furthermore, unlike cobalt, global lithium supply is more diversified
across a number of better regulated jurisdictions such as Chile,
Australia, Argentina and China – making it less prone to price spikes or
environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns.
As a result, lithium will continue to be an integral component of all
EV batteries moving forward – supporting global demand levels for the
metal over the next 10 years.
Therefore, in the longer term, prices of all key battery metals are
set to rise as demand from the EV industry ramps up, with nickel being
the primary demand beneficiary.
Graphite – new low-cost sources needed
The biggest driver of the flake graphite market has been the
introduction of new supply from Africa – primarily from Madagascar and
Mozambique.
In 2018, ASX-listed Syrah Resources brought the world’s largest flake
graphite operation into production and the new production volumes
introduced to the market from its Balama graphite project in Mozambique
have added to excess graphite capacities in China – which has been the
world’s leading graphite supplier for a generation. [Insert image of
Balama here]
As China focuses its domestic graphite output on value-added markets,
there remains a need for need for new low-cost sources of flake
graphite material – the anode material of choice for commercial
lithium-ion rechargeable batteries – and Africa has several promising
projects aiming to fill this role to global markets, according to Andrew
Miller, head of price assessments at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
“At this stage the introduction of new graphite material from Africa
has overtaken the demand growth, which will be largely driven by the
production of lithium-ion battery anodes and, ultimately, EV penetration
rates,†says Miller.
Moving forward there is a significant backlog to overcome in the
market which is likely to see continued depressed prices into 2020.
Longer-term however, the industry is still faced with the major task of
expanding graphite production to meet the projected growth in battery
demand and the low graphite prices of today will not be capable to
support the development of many new projects.
As a result, Miller says the market is in a transition period with
demand growth on the horizon and an abundance of feedstock material –
the question is how much of this can be used in the lithium-ion battery
supply chain and how much of this will be available ahead of the major
ramp up of battery projects.
Vanadium – the key to renewable energy storage
According to AIM-listed Bushveld Minerals, a low-cost, vertically
integrated primary vanadium producer with assets in South Africa,
Vanadium currently benefits from having two strong uses driving its
demand.
One, the traditional steel sector, where vanadium is used as a
strengthening alloy, which boasts a steady growth trajectory according
to most general forecasts due to an increase in intensity in use of
vanadium.
Two, the energy storage sector, where vanadium is the primary input
into vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs), which not only benefits the
burgeoning renewable energy sector, but significantly, and perhaps more
importantly, helps make existing power systems more efficient through
load balancing and other forms of grid savings.
Upside in demand from the energy storage sector
Research from Navigant forecasts that the size of the energy storage
market will reach US$50 billion within the next 10 years, which
represents a growth rate of 58% a year to exceed 100 GWh of capacity by
2027.
While multiple technologies are expected to be successful due to
their unique technical and cost advantages and suitability to local
conditions, VRFBs are expected to capture approximately 18% of the
market, which equates to 20 GWh of demand and nearly $10 billion in
revenue in the coming decade.
This confidence is shared by the World Bank, which recently allocated
$1 billion to a global battery storage programme (aiming to raise an
additional $4 billion in co-investment) to drive market creation and
help drive down battery prices in low- and middle-income countries.
From a VFRB deployment perspective, there are already a number of
large VRFB projects in progress, including the largest VRFB in the world
currently under construction, demonstrating the technological benefits
and proven use-cases in countries with established power grid
infrastructure.
In South Africa, the country’s recently published Integrated Resource
Plan 2019 specifically seeks novel ways to improve grid reliability and
access to power over the long-term, with a dedicated allocation of over
2 GW for new energy storage.
As a result of these developments, Bushveld Minerals founder and CEO
Fortune Mojapelo is confident that vanadium will continue to feed the
primary steel market, while gaining further market share of the
important energy sector through VRFBs.
Tags: CSE, nickel, nickel demand, stocks, tsx, tsx-v Posted in Tartisan Nickel | Comments Off on The burgeoning electric vehicle #EV sector has taken the #mining industry by storm in the last five years – SPONSOR Tartisan #Nickel $TN.ca – $ROX.ca $FF.ca $EDG.ca $AGL.ca $ANZ.ca
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 3:00 PM on Thursday, January 30th, 2020
SPONSOR: Tartisan Nickel (TN:CSE)
Kenbridge Property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14
million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper. Tartisan also has
interests in Peru, including a 20 percent equity stake in Eloro
Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property. Click her for more information
Nickel and copper are bull stand-outs in base metals poll: Andy Home
Nickel and copper are the bull stand-outs in the latest Reuters poll of base metals analysts, with both set to rise in price over the next two years thanks to supply constraints and expected market deficits.
By: Andy Home
LONDON — Nickel and copper are the bull stand-outs in the latest
Reuters poll of base metals analysts, with both set to rise in price
over the next two years thanks to supply constraints and expected market
deficits.
All the other base metals are expected to fall in price this year at
least, with zinc and lead set to underperform over the next two years as
those markets transition from supply shortfall to surplus.
Supply is the clear differentiator in the poll findings.
Demand is widely expected to recover from the synchronized weakness of 2019.
Or at least it was.
The poll was conducted between Jan. 8 and Jan. 20 before the outbreak
of the coronavirus in China’s Wuhan started hitting the headlines. It’s
still too early for analysts to change their forecasts but quite
evidently the hit to Chinese economic activity now looms ever larger.
BUYING INTO DEFICIT STORIES
Nickel was the best-performing base metal last year and analysts are looking for more of the same over the next two years.
The median forecast for cash nickel is $15,325 per tonne this year
and $16,500 in 2021, up 10% and 19% respectively on last year’s average
price of $13,903.
The bull consensus is almost unanimous with only JP Morgan expecting
lower average prices in both years and then only by a small margin.
Underpinning the positive price outlook is Indonesia’s ban on exports
of nickel ore, which kicked in at the start of this month and which is
widely expected to feed through to lower nickel pig iron production in
China.
There are multiple moving parts to this Indonesian puzzle but there
is a clear analysts’ consensus that the nickel market will experience a
supply shortfall to the tune of 31,000 tonnes in 2020 and 74,000 tonnes
in 2021.
Out of the eight analysts prepared to forecast a nickel market
balance only one, the Economist Intelligence Unit, foresees anything
other than a deficit market in both years.
Expected supply deficit is also why copper gets the collective thumbs-up.
The median expectation is for a supply shortfall of 160,000 tonnes in
2020 and 17,000 tonnes in 2021 and, as with nickel, there are only a
handful of contrarians. Just three out of 13 analysts expect a surplus
this year.
The copper price is expected to rise by around 3% per year from 2019 levels to $6,214 this year and $6,393 next year.
ZINC THE UNDERPERFORMER
Among the other base metals, zinc is the least favored while aluminum
and tin lie somewhere in the middle of the bull-bear spectrum with
analysts forecasting lower prices this year with some recovery penciled
in for 2021.
The poll’s median forecast for zinc is a fall from an average $2,549 in 2019 to $2,295 this year and $2,299 in 2021.
That’s predicated on an expected 108,000-tonne supply surplus this
year and a bigger 185,000-tonne excess in 2021. Only one company,
Jefferies, is looking for a deficit in both years to the tune of a
relatively modest 26,000 tonnes and 21,000 tonnes respectively.
Tangible signs that zinc has transitioned from a state of supply
deficit to surplus were conspicuous by their absence last year. Analysts
are evidently expecting that to change going forwards.
Unsurprisingly, the collective bearishness on zinc extends to sister
metal lead because of the two metals’ shared mined production profile.
Lead is not expected to fall by nearly as much as zinc but that may
be down to the market’s opacity as much as anything else. Only 15
analysts hazarded a price forecast for lead, compared with 23 for zinc,
and only four projected a market balance estimate compared with zinc’s
eight.
Opacity also continues to plague assessments of the aluminum market.
Analysts’ views of market balance this year range from a surplus of 1.1
million tonnes (Morgan Stanley) to a deficit of 1.1 million (Bank of
America Merrill Lynch).
The median reading is a surplus of 350,000 tonnes, translating into a
median price forecast of $1,775, down 1% on 2019. Only a slight pick-up
to $1,830 is expected next year, reflecting market concerns that
Chinese production is set to resume its strong uptrend after pausing in
2019.
The tiny tin market was out of favor last year and looks set to
remain so again this year with a median forecast the price will drop 6%
to $17,500, from last year’s $18,660. A modest bounce is expected next
year but only to $18,175.
DEMAND SHOCK
This poll is already starting to look like a rear-view snapshot of the world before the coronavirus.
Analysts’ focus on supply differentiators was in part based on a
collective assumption that industrial metals demand was going to improve
this year after last year’s weak performance.
That benign view in turn assumed a recovery in China’s giant
manufacturing sector, still the most single powerful driver of metals
prices.
The spread of the coronavirus and Beijing’s increasingly draconian
measures to contain it are already undermining those assumptions.
It’s still too early for analysts to change their price forecasts and
the consensus is that any Chinese manufacturing recovery is postponed
not canceled.
If the SARS virus of 2003 is a template, itself questionable, the
prognosis is for a sharp short-term hit to Chinese economic growth
followed by an equally sharp bounce as Beijing pulls all the usual
stimulus levers to compensate.
Expectations are changing in real time in tandem with the news flow coming out of China.
However, it’s noticeable that the two base metals hardest hit so far
are nickel and copper, down by 12% and 9% respectively since the start
of January.
That’s because funds had been long of both, buying into the same
optimistic narrative evident in the analysts poll. Those positions are
now being rapidly unwound as investors reassess their views.
It’s a sign that demand not supply may yet exert the more powerful effect on pricing this year.
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 12:34 PM on Wednesday, January 29th, 2020
SPONSOR: Tartisan Nickel (TN:CSE)
Kenbridge Property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14
million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper. Tartisan also has
interests in Peru, including a 20 percent equity stake in Eloro
Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property. Click her for more information
Understanding Nickel Usage in Lithium Batteries
CRU calculates that around 5% of nickel demand came from the battery sector in 2019
However, we forecast that growth will be rapid and the battery sectors use of primary nickel will reach 870,000 tonnes by 2030 and 1.5 Mt by 2040
LONDON, Jan. 29, 2020 — This Insight focuses on current nickel use in the battery sector, how it has changed in recent years, what is driving these changes and what our base case demand forecasts for nickel are.
Understanding nickel usage in lithium batteries (PRNewsfoto/CRU)
CRU calculates that around 5% of nickel demand came from the battery
sector in 2019. However, we forecast that growth will be rapid and the
battery sectors use of primary nickel will reach 870,000 tonnes by 2030
and 1.5 Mt by 2040. The evolution of the electric vehicle sector and the
differing battery technologies within it, will increasingly shape the
nickel market and represent a third of total demand by 2040.
There has been fierce debate surrounding the outlook for nickel usage
in lithium batteries over the past few years. CRU has invested a large
amount of time and resources into developing in-house long-term
modelling capabilities for the automotive sector. This work has been
undertaken not only to support our analysis of traditional automotive
commodities like steel and aluminium, but also to shed light on the
development and growth of the nascent electric vehicle (EV) sector and
to better understand the resultant long-term impact for a wide range of
commodities including cobalt, lithium, nickel, graphite and PGMs.
Of the various battery chemistries in widespread production four use
nickel: nickel metal hydride (NiMH), nickel cadmium (NiCd),
nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) and nickel-cobalt-aluminium oxide (NCA).
Here, we will focus on NMC and NCA, which amount to more than 95% of
nickel contained in batteries. NMC and NCA are lithium-ion batteries
(LIBs), but NiMH and NiCd are not and we believe more applications will
move towards using LIBs in the future.
Sourcing of nickel units for cathode markets shows high degree of flexibility
CRU’s in-house nickel sulphate supply model covers nine separate key
processing routes. These can be classified into four categories, based
on the raw materials used; sulphide ore, nickel briquettes, laterite ore
and recycled nickel. Currently, sulphide ore, nickel briquettes are the
dominate routes, but laterite ore and recycled nickel are growing.
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 4:06 PM on Monday, January 20th, 2020
SPONSOR: Tartisan Nickel (TN:CSE)
Kenbridge Property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14
million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper. Tartisan also has
interests in Peru, including a 20 percent equity stake in Eloro
Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property. Click her for more information
Global EV sales to reach 54mn by 2030
Global electic vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 54mn by 2030
Changing lithium-ion battery chemistry will transform battery metals demand in the coming years, delegates at the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference (AABC) in Wiesbaden, Germany, heard yesterday.
Worldwide, EVs will have a 40pc market share by 2030, with cumulative
sales of up to 54.3mn, according to forecasts from P3 Automotive. By
2025, global EV sales are expected to have exceeded 30mn and make up
25pc of the market. And this year, they are expected to pass 10mn,
making up just under 10pc of new car sales.
The growth is expected to come as limits for vehicles’ CO2 emissions are reduced.
In China, average vehicle emissions are expected to fall to 71g/km in
2030 from 119g/km this year. The number of EVs in China is expected to
rise to 23mn from 5.8mn over the same period, making China the largest
market globally. In the EU, CO2 emissions must fall to 59g/km in 2030,
down from 95g/km this year, and number of EVs is expected to rise to
10.7mn by 2030, up from 2.1mn this year.
If carmakers do not hit these targets, they could face large
government penalties, especially in the EU, where Groupe PSA expects
fines exceed €240mn for each gram above the target.
Battery chemistry to shift by 2025
A shift in the chemistry of batteries towards higher lithium and
nickel density and lower cobalt levels will also define battery metals
demand in the coming years, according to Lux Research.
As buyers demand greater range and duration between charges, battery
manufacturers will move towards higher nickel cathodes, which offer
improved capacity. There will also be a move towards silicon anodes by
2025, before a switch to solid state lithium anodes by 2030.
Currently, most lithium-ion batteries contain cathodes that are made
from lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt-oxide (NMC), with a ratio of either
5 parts nickel-3 parts manganese-2 parts cobalt, or a 6-2-2 ratio and a
graphite anode.
To cut costs and maximise efficiency, battery manufacturers are
looking to reduce the cobalt and manganese content, moving to an 8-1-1
ratio. This can be dangerous. Cobalt stabilises battery chemistry and
reducing it can lead to explosions, but this year China will launch the
first commercial car to contain an 8-1-1 battery. China is a testing
ground for riskier forms of battery chemistry.
As cooling technology improves, the risk of electrical fires is
reduced, and cell makers are expected to shift to this chemistry. By
2025, Lux says most manufacturers will use some form of 8-8-1 battery.
As a result, cobalt demand growth could be slower than expected after
2025, but nickel and especially nickel sulphate demand could grow
sharply.
The use of silicon in anodes is also expected to increase. Silicon
improves battery performance, but it expands and contracts, which can
cause problems. Still, incremental gains mean the market could start to
see widespread inclusion of silicon from 2023. Demand for extremely pure
grades of silicon metal would increase, while demand growth for
graphite would slow.
Demand for metals being used less in battery chemistry would still
grow thanks to exponential growth expected in the EV market between now
and 2030.
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 5:00 PM on Monday, January 13th, 2020
SPONSOR: Tartisan Nickel (TN:CSE)
Kenbridge Property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14
million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper. Tartisan also has
interests in Peru, including a 20 percent equity stake in Eloro
Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property. Click her for more information
Battery markets charge up for 2020
Our main area of focus is what we see as the critical minerals and metals in the battery supply chain – lithium, graphite, cobalt and nickel
There are a lot more minerals and metals that are used in the EV supply chain, but we focus on those four because they’re going to experience the most considerable growth from the emergence of EVs over the coming years
by Canadian Mining Journal
Why we’re headed toward a ‘tipping point’ for EVs
According to the International Energy Agency, in 2018, the
global stock of EV passenger cars surpassed 5 million, a rise of 63%
over the previous year. Nearly half of those EVs – 45% – were in China.
The growth over the past decade has encouraged investment in
battery minerals and metals – lithium, graphite, cobalt and nickel. But
interest in new projects has waned as prices have fallen – largely in
response to a scale back of subsidies for EV’s in China and an
oversupply of battery minerals.
To understand the disconnect between expected growth in the battery minerals markets and current prices, Canadian Mining Journal
spoke with Andrew Miller, head of price assessments with Benchmark
Mineral Intelligence, a consultancy and advisory firm that provides
independent pricing and market data on battery minerals, in December.
Canadian Mining Journal: Which minerals and metals are considered EV minerals and metals – which ones does Benchmark track?
Andrew Miller: Our main area of
focus is what we see as the critical minerals and metals in the battery
supply chain – lithium, graphite, cobalt and
nickel. There are a lot more minerals and metals that are used in the EV
supply chain, but we focus on those four because they’re going to
experience the most considerable growth from the emergence of EVs over
the coming years. They’re susceptible to volatility because of the huge growth that they’re facing and
the rigid supply structure in each of those markets. As you’ve seen
with lithium and cobalt over the last three to four years, you have an
extremely volatile pricing situation. So those are the four that we see
as really critical in this supply chain and areas that are really going to have to develop to support electrification.
CMJ: Can you give us a sense of how big and fast–growing the EV market is right now?
AM: To date, the market has been
driven by adoption of batteries in heavy duty vehicles, e-buses for
instance have seen considerable growth. But
we’re only in the very early stages of what’s really going to drive the
market over the coming decade, which is the adoption of electric
vehicles for passenger applications. We’re seeing considerable growth,
particularly in the Chinese market.
China’s been very dominant in the supply chain because of some
of the incentives they had in place to promote electrification and we’re
now entering what we think is going to be a tipping point
for that electric vehicle industry outside of China, as Western OEMs are
committing a huge amount of their future fleet to electrified models.
Ultimately, what that’s going to mean is the rampup of these OEMs and
their electrification plans is really going to drive the battery sector
forward outside of China and Asia.
The lithium-ion battery market right now is producing around 200 GWh and we’re forecasting it will grow to around 1,800 GWh by 2028, so that gives you some idea of scale – almost 10X growth in terms of battery output in the coming decade.
CMJ: At The Northern Miner’s Progressive Mine Forum in the fall, you forecast that
we could see a deficit in cobalt in 2020 and lithium and graphite by
2022. That’s obviously not far off. What are the key factors that could
swing those forecasts either way?
AM: With some of the cutbacks in
cobalt production, there’s definitely going to be a tighter cobalt
market going into the new year. (Glencore recently announced
that it’s closing its Mutunda mine, a large cobalt producer, for two
years.) Around that 2021/2022 time horizon, we’re expecting others –
lithium and graphite for instance – will also become tighter markets.
The big factor in terms of demand in the short term, as I
mentioned, is what’s been happening in China. And although you’ll hear a
lot said about what slowing Chinese growth actually means,
in reality, China’s still growing at quite a healthy rate – double
digit growth in terms of its EV production. So it’s not bad, it’s just
not as much as in previous years. And the reason for that is they’re phasing out their subsidies, which is forcing some liquidity issues and some consolidation along the supply chain.
Chinese policy can swing things quite considerably one way or
the other, but as I mentioned, we’re entering a market in the next two
to three years where demand isn’t so China-focused. Although China will
remain an important driver of growth, we’re also going to see significant growth in Europe and North America, and that diversity of demand is going to see this story accelerate in terms of consumption numbers.
You’re also seeing some very pro-electrification policies being
put in place in Europe at the moment, which are expected to have a
positive impact and could see things grow at a faster speed. China is
due to bring their subsidies to an end by next year – I think that’s
already built into a lot of people’s demand models, but if Chinese
growth dries up in the short term that still has a meaningful impact on
global demand.
So I think there’s more on the upside in terms of where that
outlook could go wrong, particularly when you look at the market balance
of these raw materials and you consider that we’re really in a period
where to support the growth of 2022, money needs to be going into those
markets now. And investment has dried up because of the negative price
environment for all of these key materials – investment has actually
dried up at a time when it’s incredibly important that new supply is
brought into the market. So things have a chance of becoming more
fragile rather than less fragile over the coming years.
CMJ: There seems to be a bit of a disconnect between, as you say,
that negative price environment and the actual projected increases in
demand in the relatively near future – what’s causing that disconnect?
AM: It’s a short-term effect. What
we saw around 2015/2016, particularly in the cobalt and lithium markets
with the rapid increase in pricing that occurred, was a wave of
investment that was based on the market at that point and the more
considerable growth that was expected in the future. That led to this
sort of transition period that we’re in in the moment where there’s
still double-digit demand growth across all of these markets from the
battery sector, but because we’ve been able to introduce some new supply
that’s accelerated above the rate of new demand, you have this
imbalance that is driving a correction in pricing. The
spike in pricing and the highs in pricing we saw several years ago
weren’t sustainable, but equally now, pricing we’re seeing in areas like
lithium are unsustainable to allow for new supply in the future.
So unfortunately, the correction that’s happened because of
this new supply is only making the longer-term outlook that much more
fragile.
CMJ: In addition to that difficult market,
many battery minerals are specialty minerals that are finicky to
produce in a quality and specification that battery manufacturers need.
What do new producers have to do to be successful in this market?
AM: I think it’s really an issue
of time. Even the most established producers in the market, to expand
their production of these refined materials takes time, even if you have
the investment and infrastructure in place. So whether you’re an
existing producer or a development stage project, you’re going to need
time because it’s not a commodity game – it’s not just taking it out of
the ground and worrying about the logistics, it really is more an issue
of refining that product, working with the end user to make something
they can use.
On that note, I think any type of partnership with your
customer or any way of working with them in order to understand their
requirements is helpful. That can be quite difficult in itself because
we’re still in this period where people are trying to figure out what is
the most cost-effective type of anode and cathode material to use and
how much energy density can we squeeze out of this material. But the
closer the relationship with their end user the better the chance of
success for new companies, particularly as they introduce new suppliers.
So I think it’s a combination of time, expertise, knowing your
market and your product and then coupling that with a strong
relationship with the people that will ultimately be using your product.
CMJ: What is the dominant type of chemistry or lithium-ion battery in the EV market right now?
AM: On the anode side, it’s a bit
more clean cut – you’re either using natural or synthetic graphite, and
more typically now a combination of the two materials to maximize the
cost/energy performance requirements of the anode.
It’s a little more varied on the cathode side. What was driving
the market around the mid-2000s was the rise of consumer electronics,
which required LCO (lithium cobalt oxide) cathodes, which is a
cobalt-intensive cathode. What you’re seeing for electric vehicles and
what’s really going to drive the market going forward is the use of
either NCM (nickel cobalt manganese) or NCA (nickel cobalt aluminum)
cathode types. Tesla use NCA.
These are more nickel-intensive cathode chemistries that still do use cobalt but in a lower intensity
than LCO. For more heavy duty vehicles, like buses and trucks, you have
LFP – lithium iron phosphate, a cathode that’s really grown to a lot of
people’s surprise this year and continues to grow. It’s a lower-cost
type of cathode – you get less energy density from it, but for some of
the larger vehicle applications, it’s a very stable, reliable chemistry.
CMJ: Are there any advances that are happening in the EV battery space that you’re watching that could affect the market?
AM: There are a lot of exciting
things that are happening in the EV market that you have to keep tabs
on, particularly on the technology side. We’re reaching a point with the
electric vehicle market where it’s really about fine tuning the
existing chemistries – that’s going to be the real development that you
see rather than a major overhaul or anything that could disrupt the
future projection. Because if you look at the time to commercializing
any of these technologies, to overcome the consistency, quality, performance and safety issues – it takes a huge amount of time to tick all of those boxes and to bring something new in.
CMJ: You’ve outlined a big supply challenge that looks like perhaps it can’t be met –
we can’t necessarily speed up permitting to get projects developed
faster, even if prices rise dramatically in the near term. How do you
see that being resolved?
AM: It’s a big concern for the
industry and ultimately you’ll have to see a huge influx of investment
going in in quite a short amount of time. These projects do take time
and it’s not going to be something that resolves itself overnight.
There’s the potential for some of these industries to become major
bottlenecks to the expansion of the electric vehicle market. On that
note, I do think that’s being realized at the moment and even though
investment may not be coming into the sector from public markets, you
are seeing more joint venture partnerships in companies downstream,
getting involved with the raw material supplies to ensure that that
supply availability is there, so I think that will continue.
One area that we still haven’t seen come to maturity is battery
recycling – bringing some of these materials back out of the battery
and being able to use them again. In the longer term, though, these
issues will be resolved because, with the possible exception of cobalt, these aren’t scarce materials geologically, it’s just getting them out of the ground and refining them in the right way.
There are definitely going to be some real teething issues over
the coming years because you need continued and sustained investment to
support this new production and at the moment it’s just not being
forthcoming at the speed that’s required. But the hopeful side of that
is we saw in 2015 and 2016 how quickly the prospect of this major
battery growth can attract investment into the
sector. It didn’t provide everything that was needed, but when prices
start going up again and when there’s a tighter market, parties can turn
their attentions to this very quickly, particularly when you’re moving
into the real growth that we’re expecting come the mid-2020s.
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 9:00 PM on Sunday, January 12th, 2020
SPONSOR: Tartisan Nickel (TN:CSE)
Kenbridge Property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14
million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper. Tartisan also has
interests in Peru, including a 20 percent equity stake in Eloro
Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property. Click her for more information
Nickel demand set to rise in 2020 along with growth in electric vehicle sales
China is stepping up its efforts to be a leader in autonomous cars and is aiming for a quarter of all cars sold in the country to be new-energy vehicles by 2025
500,000 tonnes of refined nickel will be used annually in lithium-ion batteries for EVs by 2025 Â
Nickel’s demand outlook looks bright, especially from the electric vehicle sector of the automotive industry
Fastmarkets analysts estimate that
500,000 tonnes of refined nickel will be used annually in lithium-ion
batteries for EVs by 2025, up from 100,000 tonnes in 2018.
That growth in nickel consumption comes
even before the wider adoption of the nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM)
8-1-1 battery, which the market expects to become an industry staple.
A recent report drafted by the Ministry
of Industry & Information Technology indicates that China will step
up its efforts to be a leader in autonomous cars and is aiming for a
quarter of all cars sold in the country to be new-energy vehicles [NEVs]
by 2025.
NEVs include electric cars, hybrids and fuel-cell vehicles.
Ban on nickel exports in Indonesia
In response to the risk of increasing
demand tightening local supply, the Indonesian government announced a
ban on the export of raw nickel ores, bringing the ban forward from 2022
to January 2020.
According to GlobalData director of
analysis David Kurtz, this ban is intended to produce value-added nickel
products, stimulate domestic processing of ore, and make the country a
hub for electric vehicle production.
Indonesia is the largest global producer
of nickel and a major supplier of the metal to China’s stainless steel
industry. In anticipation of the ban, Chinese producers are building up
nickel inventories.
This has increased the price of nickel
significantly, with prices at the end of September 2019 reaching more
than $16,000 per tonne, an increase of more than 60% from January.
When the ban was announced, nickel prices increased by 8.8% to reach a peak of $18,620 per tonne, the highest price since 2014.
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 12:35 PM on Tuesday, January 7th, 2020
Investment Highlights
Kenbridge property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14 million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper
17.5 (21.8 fully diluted) percent equity stake in Eloro Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property
Kenbridge Ni Project (ON, Canada)
Advanced stage deposit remains open in three directions, is
equipped with a 623m deep shaft and has never been mined
Preliminary Economic Assessment completed and updated returned robust project economics and operating costs including a NPV of C$253M and cash costs of US$3.47/lb of nickel net of copper credits
Plans for Kenbridge include updating PEA,
advancing the project through to feasibility and exploring the open
mineralization at depth
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 12:21 PM on Friday, January 3rd, 2020
SPONSOR: Tartisan Nickel (TN:CSE)
Kenbridge Property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14
million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper. Tartisan also has
interests in Peru, including a 20 percent equity stake in Eloro
Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property. Click her for more information
THE nickel mining industry group is bracing for the possible increase in the global demand of nickel brought about by the boom of electric vehicles.
“The direction globally is really the EV (electric vehicle) industry and we have that global competitiveness because more than 50 percent of the component of the entire electric vehicle is really nickel. The batteries itself and the body need more nickel,†Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA) Executive director Charmaine Capili said in a press conference, Friday. Capili explained battery companies are currently experimenting on putting more nickel mineral in batteries for electric vehicles.
“At present, the composition of the battery that is being used is six nickel, two cobalt, and two magnesium. [By] Late 2018, they already tried to use eight nickel, one cobalt, and one magnesium because they said it has lower production cost and higher efficiency, but they still have to test the durability and further its efficiency,†she said.
She said the growing demand for nickel is also foreseen in the goal of European countries to have zero-carbon emission by 2030 by shifting to electric vehicles.
She added that the demand is not only exclusive to other countries as it has been observed in the Philippine transportation.
“Daghang mga LGUs (local government units) karon nga naga-shift na especially sa Manila e-trike, e-jeep (A lot of LGUs right now are shifting into using electric-powered tricycle and electric-powered jeepneys),†Capili said.
Apart from batteries, she said the stainless steel used for the body of electric vehicles also has nickel in it.
Although the Philippines is one of the largest producers of the mineral’s ore along with Indonesia which is leading in the industry, she admitted there are still factor preventing the country to compete globally.
She said among the challenges are the limitations of exploring other areas because of the moratorium imposed by Executive Order (EO) 79.
“May limitations po sa explorations, no new permits. Kung ano lang yung na approved [areas] for existing operations, doon lang (We are only allowed to mine on those areas approved for operations),†she said.
“We have 9 million hectares available in the Philippines for minerals that is copper, gold, nickel. But the Philippines right now is only maximizing only 2 percent out of the 9 million [hectares], and out of the 2 percent, only 1 to 1.5 percent is operating. There is a very big potential,†she said citing data from the Department of Environment and Natural Resources – Mines and Geoscience Bureau (DENR-MGB).
She shared other challenges confronting the industry is the amount of resources, the low grade of nickel, high cost of electricity to process the mineral, and the technologies of extracting ores or for processing it.
Capili bared that to address these issues, PNIA, an association of seven mining companies operating in Surigao, Palawan, and Agusan is working with the DENR and the Department of Trade and Industry to establish a Nickel Industry Roadmap.
She said the roadmap also aims to create stable policies for the nickel mining industry and other industries reliant on nickel as well as programs that promote the sustainability of nickel mining in the country.
She also hoped that the moratorium will be lifted soon for the country to be globally competitive.
“Hopefully, by middle of this year, we can already share and launch the roadmap but we are still creating the composition of the Technical Working Group because we want to get inputs from the government, business sectors, European Chamber of Commerce in the Philippines, the Electric Vehicles Association of the Philippines, other nongovernmental organizations and academe,†she said.