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VIDEO: AGORACOM Predicts TSX Venture Small-Cap “Melt-Up”

Posted by AGORACOM at 10:11 AM on Wednesday, March 11th, 2015

It is no secret that Canadian small-cap companies have taken a massive beating in the last 4 years, falling from 2,500 to 650 or ~ 75%.  That is a brutal melt down and here is a visual:

TSXV MeltUp

 

Nobody escaped unscathed.  If you were lucky, you survived – barely.  The rest just died.  AGORACOM survived largely because we saw the oversupply and called it as far back as 2008 when I posted the following right here on this same blog”

“Let the fly by nights die, consolidate those with decent assets and let the superstars stand up on their own two feet.”

Our industry, however, didn’t learn our lesson and chose to keep the fly by nights going in the name and pursuit of greed.  Unfortunately, Mr. Market doesn’t like an oversupply of non-performing assets, so he chose to teach us the lesson by turning fly by nights into zombies.  For the record, I want to thank Tony Simon for quantifying the term … but have to give credit to our very own Chief Market Commentator, Allan Bary Labouchan, for first applying the term Zombies to the TSX Venture Walking Dead … watch this clip.

THAT WAS THE BAD NEWS … HERE IS THE GOOD NEWS … I’M NOW CALLING A MELT UP

I’m calling it, right here, right now … the Canadian Small Cap Market is now entering a Melt UP Phase that will last for a minimum of 4 years. My call is based on the following:

  1. The Zombies may still be walking around but we all know who they are and they no longer pose a risk.
  2. Investors have ended the “mourning” phase and are now seeking new investments to build their future with.  This is supported by our traffic metrics clearly demonstrating investors are spending more time researching even while the TSXV bottomed out in 2014.
  3. The Buzz at PDAC was much more focused on making real deals and moves between the strong companies that survived the melt down.
  4. The survivors are trading at ridiculously cheap prices.
  5. The TSX Venture Exchange is starting to see healthy diversification via “real” companies from the tech and medical space.  I emphasize REAL because these companies have real products, customers and business plans.

More than just lip service, here is my video call.  If your small cap company is ready to take advantage of the multi-year melt up, be sure to get in contact with us to discuss our CASHLESS online programs!

TSXV MeltUpVideo

 

Canadian Small-Cap Consolidation Continues – Pace Oil & Gas, AvenEx Energy, Charger Energy Amalgamate – Form Dividend Paying Small-Cap

Posted by AGORACOM at 11:06 AM on Thursday, December 20th, 2012

Canadian Small Cap Consolidation Continues - Image Courtesy Of FlashDBA.com

Pursuant to my theme that a Canadian small-cap catharsis is underway … and long overdue … take a look at the huge headline below.

Hats off to the management teams of all 3 companies for this great move.

Pace Oil & Gas, AvenEx Energy and Charger Energy to Combine and Form Intermediate Dividend Paying Corporation

Conversion of natural gas volumes to barrels of oil equivalent (boe) are at 6:1.

CALGARY, ALBERTA–(Marketwire – Dec. 20, 2012) –

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES. ANY FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF U.S. SECURITIES LAWS.

Pace Oil & Gas Ltd. (“Pace”) (TSX:PCE), AvenEx Energy Corp. (“AvenEx”) (TSX:AVF) and Charger Energy Corp. (“Charger”) (TSX VENTURE:CHX) announce that they have entered into an agreement (the “Arrangement Agreement”) providing for the combination of Pace, AvenEx and Charger to form a dividend paying corporation to be named “Spyglass Resources Corp.” (“Spyglass”). Spyglass will have a balanced commodity profile and sustainable business model underpinned by 18,000 boe/d of stable, low decline oil and gas production and will be led by an experienced management team.

The merger will be completed through an amalgamation of the three parties (the “Merger”) on the basis of 1.30 Spyglass shares for each outstanding common share of Pace (the “Pace Shares”), 1.00 Spyglass share for each outstanding common share of AvenEx (the “AvenEx Shares”) and 0.18 Spyglass shares for each outstanding Class A share of Charger (the “Charger Shares”). The exchange ratios represent a value of $4.32 for each Pace Share, $3.32 for each AvenEx Share and $0.60 for each Charger Share based on the closing price for AvenEx on December 19, 2012.

In conjunction with the Merger, AvenEx has reached a binding agreement for the sale of its Elbow River Marketing business (the “Elbow River Sale”) for aggregate cash proceeds of $80 million, subject to regulatory approvals, customary closing conditions and adjustments. The Elbow River Sale is expected to close by mid-February 2013.

Spyglass will have approximately 129 million common shares outstanding upon completion of the Merger and, subject to receipt of the final approval of the TSX, will be listed on the TSX under the symbol “SGL”. Spyglass will be managed by the current Charger team, led by Tom Buchanan as CEO (former President and CEO of Provident Energy Trust) and Dan O’Byrne as President (former COO of Provident Energy Trust). The Board of Directors of Spyglass will consist of 8 members with nominees from each party including Randy Findlay as Chair, Dennis Balderston, Tom Buchanan, Gary Dundas, Mike Shaikh, Jeff Smith, Fred Woods and John Wright.

“We are very pleased to introduce a new dividend-paying intermediate oil and gas producer to the Canadian market,” said Tom Buchanan, Chairman and CEO of Charger. “The combined asset base features mature, low decline properties and a balanced commodity profile coupled with the light oil development opportunities needed to sustain the model. The management team has previously operated the majority of the assets that are being contributed to Spyglass and has a proven track record in respect of the execution, financial and operational discipline that is required to sustain a cash-distributing entity.”

Dividend Policy

Upon closing, Spyglass will implement a monthly dividend of $0.03 per share with a dividend payout of 35% to 40% of cash flow (approximately $46 million annual dividend) and a target all-in payout ratio (including $80 to $90 million of sustaining capital expenditures) of approximately 100% of cash flow. The dividend policy will be reviewed monthly and is based on a number of factors including current and future commodity prices, foreign exchange rates, an active commodity price hedging program, status of current operations and future investment opportunities. Each dividend declaration will be confirmed by Spyglass in a monthly news release. Spyglass will consider implementing a dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP) following completion of the Merger.

Key Attributes and Sustainability Criteria of Spyglass

Each of Pace, AvenEx and Charger believe that the Merger will create immediate and long term shareholder value through the introduction of an income and growth company of scale with a low decline, balanced commodity profile and a sustainable dividend. The business model is supported by the following key attributes: (more…)

AGORACOM Client Feature – Donner Metals Ltd. (DON: TSX-V)

Posted by AGORACOM-JC at 11:28 AM on Thursday, March 22nd, 2012

DON: TSX-V

Donner Metals Ltd. is a Canadian development and exploration company focused on base and precious metal projects in Québec. Donner’s flagship project is a partnership with Xstrata Canada Corporation in the world-class Matagami Mining Camp district, covering both the current development of a new mine and on-going exploration activities. The area is host to historical production of 8.6 billion pounds of zinc and 853 million pounds of copper since 1963. The Matagami project is located in the Abitibi region of central Québec and it is supported by Xstrata’s existing mine infrastructure, a highly experienced workforce and an operating 2,950 tonne per day mill. As well, the area is serviced by highway, power, airport, railway and town site infrastructure. The Bracemac-McLeod deposit is located 6 kilometres from Xstrata’s Matagami mill complex. Mineral concentrates produced in Matagami are processed and refined at Xstrata’s facilities in Rouyn – Noranda and Montreal.

Bracemac-McLeod Mine

  • 35% Donner, 65% Xstrata Zinc
  • Production scheduled for January 2013
  • Initial mine life of 4 years on current mining reserve (diluted) of 3.73 million tonnes grading 9.60% zinc, 1.26% copper, and 28.25g/t silver and 0.43g/t gold
  • Positive ROR at base case = $0.80Zinc, $2.50 Copper

Mine Expansion

  • + 2.5 million tonnes in upside highgrade inferred resources identified
  • Inferred resources are open with high exploration potential
  • Numerous high-grade intersections outside of current resource envelope

The main access ramp reached 2,300 metres at Bracemac in early December, in advance of the scheduled year-end target, allowing full multi-face development to begin later in January. Total development now stands at 2,500 metres, including the main ramp to McLeod, three ramps turned off to the Bracemac Zones, and a turn-off to the backfill raise. The backfill raise, when completed, will be used as temporary ventilation until the ventilation raise is completed in the fall of 2012. Multi-faced development will now continue to the Bracemac Zones and the in the main ramps accessing the McLeod Zone.

VIEW Bracemac-McLeod Feasibility Report on SEDAR

Corporate Website / Hub on AGORACOM

Welcome To Our Newest Sponsor: Golden Hope Mines

Posted by AGORACOM-JC at 10:48 AM on Thursday, February 16th, 2012

GNH: TSX-V

We want to thank Golden Hope Mines for becoming an AGORACOM Ad Sponsor and welcome them to the family.  Golden Hope Mines supports clean and intelligent small-cap stock discussion and is led by Frank Candido, as passionate a CEO as I’ve seen in a decade.  When you have a moment, show your appreciation by visiting the company through their logo above after you’ve had a chance to review their profile below.

The company’s current focus  is in southeastern Quebec, Canada.  The Bellechasse-Timmins gold deposit lies 5 kilometres southeast of St-Magloire within the Bellechasse Belt an approximately 18 kilometre long mineralized area.

Investment Highlights

  • New discovery resulting in 20km mineralized gold belt
  • 10,000+meter drill program currently in progress
  • Recent Drilling Intersects 6140 g/t Au (197.4 oz/t Au) of Gold Over 1 Metre
  • Target Potential for multiple multi-million ounce deposits
  • Positive Preliminary Metallurgical Testing – recovery ranged from 97% to more than 99%
  • Dominant land position in the most recent North American stalking rush

The Bellechasse Gold Belt

Location

  • Site of the first gold rush in North-America in 1828
  • Strategic land position comprising 80% of mineralized belt
  • 554 mining claims spanning 24,436 hectares
  • Excellent infrastructure nearby

Geology

Gold mineralization in the Bellechasse area occurs in quartz/carbonate veins in albite diorite and related intrusive rocks, and also in minor amount in the veins within the volcanoclastic rocks that host the diorite.

The area in which mineralization is known measures approximately 875 metres along 045° and approximately 650 metres across the regional strike. Gold-bearing zones consist in quartz-filled structures which locally exhibit stockwerk pattern and may be brecciated. They are known to develop in plug-like protrusions of diorite emplaced in the country rock (T1 Zone) and in larger diorite masses (T2 Zone).

Click to enlarge

Significant intersections include:

Hole
From(m)
To(m)
Length (m)
Au g/t
BD2011-157
1.2
382
380
0.61
Including
333
382
49
2.53
BD2011-158
101
116
15
1.22
BD2011-158
349
373
24
1.14
BD2011-158
385
393
8
1.64
BD2011-159
3
10
7
0.42
BD2011-159
30
33
3
3.32
BD2011-159
281
290
9
3.13
BD2011-160
3
18
15
0.71
BD2011-160
108
158
50
0.70
BD2011-164
13
38
25
0.92
BD2011-164
114
147
33
0.61
BD2011-164
193
215
22
0.85
BD2011-164
377
383
6
1.47
BD2011-164
431
446
15
7.64

Proposed Work

  Bellechasse-Timmins
Proposed Drilling
Click to view
Bellechasse-Timmins
Plan View
Click to download

TSX Venture Volumes = Too Low For Capitulation = No Man’s Land Right Now

Posted by AGORACOM at 11:17 AM on Monday, September 26th, 2011

Volume At Beginning Of 2011 Much Higher Than Current Levels

I’ve had a number of people call, e-mail or tweet me asking about what I’m doing in this wicked TSX Venture downdraft.  In short, I’m stalking and waiting patiently for new entries.

Aren’t Prices Attractive Enough Now?

For long-term holds, there are some beauties sitting out there …. Donner Metals is a screaming buy for example.

For short-term trades, I believe we are in no man’s land right now.  I posted my reasons to Twitter and won’t repeat here. I’ll just paste my comments in:

CONCLUSION – I’m not buying trading positions at these levels.  I’ll either buy lower on capitulation confirmed by volume, or higher on a break to the upside.   Buying trading positions at these levels is no man’s land.

Regards,

George

TSX Venture Dollar Volume Actives Are Getting Killed Today

Posted by AGORACOM at 1:29 PM on Friday, July 29th, 2011

A Table Is Worth 1,000 jaw drops …. not a good day for the TSX Venture as big money takes money off the table prior to long weekend …. With Canadian markets closed on Monday, nobody wants to be exposed to debt-default risk.

If you’ve got the guts and think Obama / Boehner will hammer out a deal this weekend, now is the time to take advantage of short term trading opportunities.