Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 12:35 PM on Tuesday, January 7th, 2020
Investment Highlights
Kenbridge property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14 million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper
17.5 (21.8 fully diluted) percent equity stake in Eloro Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property
Kenbridge Ni Project (ON, Canada)
Advanced stage deposit remains open in three directions, is
equipped with a 623m deep shaft and has never been mined
Preliminary Economic Assessment completed and updated returned robust project economics and operating costs including a NPV of C$253M and cash costs of US$3.47/lb of nickel net of copper credits
Plans for Kenbridge include updating PEA,
advancing the project through to feasibility and exploring the open
mineralization at depth
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 3:53 PM on Monday, January 6th, 2020
SPONSOR: Tartisan Nickel (TN:CSE)
Kenbridge Property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14
million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper. Tartisan also has
interests in Peru, including a 20 percent equity stake in Eloro
Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property. Click her for more information
Demand for nickel in PH to spike due to growing demand for electric vehicles
The nickel industry in the Philippines can expect a brighter prospect for 2020 as the global demand is expected to increase for the manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs).
Cha Olea, Philippine Nickel Association (PNIA) executive director,
said in an interview on Friday that the association has seen an
increasing trend for electric vehicles worldwide, including the
Philippines, leading to a possible industry boom as a result of a shift
from fossil-run vehicles to more environment friendly electricity-run
vehicles to curb carbon emission.
“The primary component of EV battery is nickel because of the
batteries,†she said. Aside from nickel, Olea said the batteries also
need cobalt and magnesium, but 50 percent of the batteries for EVs are
made of nickel.
The executive added that manufacturing plants’ demand for stainless steel, which is also derived from nickel, would increase.
Members of the European Union targets to totally eradicate carbon
emission by 2030, while the United States has been slowly replacing
fossil-run vehicles with EVs, by offering incentives to owners of
electric vehicles.
“Nickel has a very good prospect in the future, especially that
Europe’s direction by 2030 is zero carbon emission. They are shifting to
electric vehicles,†Olea said.
She said the Philippines is one of the biggest producers of nickel in
the world, producing an estimated volume of 30 million metric tons last
year. Of which, around 90% had been exported to China while the
remaining 10% to Japan, Australia, and EU.
“Globally, they are looking for Philippines. Of course, we have to position ourselves strategically,†she said.
She noted that in the Philippines, some public utility vehicles had been replaced with e-tricycles and e-jeepneys.
Olea said at least 70% of the nickel ore extracted from the
Philippines would be used for stainless steel, 3% for other components,
6% for batteries of EVs, 2% for castings, 6% for plating, 9% non-ferrous
metals, and 4% for alloy steel.
She said the new opportunities in the global market would benefit the
domestic nickel industry. According to her, the mining industry in the
Philippines employs some 250,000 workers. (Antonio L. Colina IV /
MindaNews)
Tags: CSE, nickel, nickel demand, stocks, tsx, tsx-v Posted in All Recent Posts | Comments Off on Tartisan #Nickel $TN.ca – Demand for nickel to spike due to growing demand for electric vehicles #EV $ROX.ca $FF.ca $EDG.ca $AGL.ca $ANZ.ca
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 12:21 PM on Friday, January 3rd, 2020
SPONSOR: Tartisan Nickel (TN:CSE)
Kenbridge Property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14
million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper. Tartisan also has
interests in Peru, including a 20 percent equity stake in Eloro
Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property. Click her for more information
THE nickel mining industry group is bracing for the possible increase in the global demand of nickel brought about by the boom of electric vehicles.
“The direction globally is really the EV (electric vehicle) industry and we have that global competitiveness because more than 50 percent of the component of the entire electric vehicle is really nickel. The batteries itself and the body need more nickel,†Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA) Executive director Charmaine Capili said in a press conference, Friday. Capili explained battery companies are currently experimenting on putting more nickel mineral in batteries for electric vehicles.
“At present, the composition of the battery that is being used is six nickel, two cobalt, and two magnesium. [By] Late 2018, they already tried to use eight nickel, one cobalt, and one magnesium because they said it has lower production cost and higher efficiency, but they still have to test the durability and further its efficiency,†she said.
She said the growing demand for nickel is also foreseen in the goal of European countries to have zero-carbon emission by 2030 by shifting to electric vehicles.
She added that the demand is not only exclusive to other countries as it has been observed in the Philippine transportation.
“Daghang mga LGUs (local government units) karon nga naga-shift na especially sa Manila e-trike, e-jeep (A lot of LGUs right now are shifting into using electric-powered tricycle and electric-powered jeepneys),†Capili said.
Apart from batteries, she said the stainless steel used for the body of electric vehicles also has nickel in it.
Although the Philippines is one of the largest producers of the mineral’s ore along with Indonesia which is leading in the industry, she admitted there are still factor preventing the country to compete globally.
She said among the challenges are the limitations of exploring other areas because of the moratorium imposed by Executive Order (EO) 79.
“May limitations po sa explorations, no new permits. Kung ano lang yung na approved [areas] for existing operations, doon lang (We are only allowed to mine on those areas approved for operations),†she said.
“We have 9 million hectares available in the Philippines for minerals that is copper, gold, nickel. But the Philippines right now is only maximizing only 2 percent out of the 9 million [hectares], and out of the 2 percent, only 1 to 1.5 percent is operating. There is a very big potential,†she said citing data from the Department of Environment and Natural Resources – Mines and Geoscience Bureau (DENR-MGB).
She shared other challenges confronting the industry is the amount of resources, the low grade of nickel, high cost of electricity to process the mineral, and the technologies of extracting ores or for processing it.
Capili bared that to address these issues, PNIA, an association of seven mining companies operating in Surigao, Palawan, and Agusan is working with the DENR and the Department of Trade and Industry to establish a Nickel Industry Roadmap.
She said the roadmap also aims to create stable policies for the nickel mining industry and other industries reliant on nickel as well as programs that promote the sustainability of nickel mining in the country.
She also hoped that the moratorium will be lifted soon for the country to be globally competitive.
“Hopefully, by middle of this year, we can already share and launch the roadmap but we are still creating the composition of the Technical Working Group because we want to get inputs from the government, business sectors, European Chamber of Commerce in the Philippines, the Electric Vehicles Association of the Philippines, other nongovernmental organizations and academe,†she said.
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 11:35 AM on Tuesday, December 31st, 2019
SPONSOR: Tartisan Nickel (TN:CSE)
Kenbridge Property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14
million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper. Tartisan also has
interests in Peru, including a 20 percent equity stake in Eloro
Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property. Click her for more information
The battery decade: How energy storage could revolutionize industries in the next 10 years
Over the last decade a surge in lithium-ion battery production has
led to an 85% decline in prices, making electric vehicles and energy
storage commercially viable for the first time in history.
Batteries hold the key to transitioning away from fossil fuel
dependence, and are set to play a greater role in the coming decade.
UBS estimates that over the next ten years the energy storage market
in the United States could grow to as much as $426 billion, and there
are many ways to buy into the surge, including chemical companies,
battery cell makers, car companies, solar companies and utility
companies.
“Capturing the massive economic opportunity underlying the shift to
controls and battery-based energy systems requires that planners,
policymakers, regulators, and investors take an ecosystem approach to
developing these markets,†sustainability-focused research firm Rocky
Mountain Institute said recently.
What a difference a decade can make. In 2010, batteries powered our
phones and computers. By the end of the decade, they are starting to
power our cars and houses too.
Over the last ten years, a surge in lithium-ion battery production
drove down prices to the point that — for the first time in history —
electric vehicles became commercially viable from the standpoint of both
cost and performance. The next step, and what will define the next
decade, is utility-scale storage.
As the immediacy of the climate crisis becomes ever more apparent,
batteries hold the key to transitioning to a renewable-fueled world.
Solar and wind are playing a greater role in power generation, but
without effective energy storage techniques, natural gas and coal are
needed for times when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t howling.
And so large scale storage is instrumental if society is to shift away
from a world dependent on fossil-fuel.
watch now
VIDEO08:13
The battery industry is exploding — here’s how it’s changing our world
UBS estimates that over the next decade energy storage costs will
fall between 66% and 80%, and that the market will grow to as much as
$426 billion worldwide. Along the way entire ecosystems will grow and
develop to support a new age of battery-powered electricity, and the
effects will be felt throughout society.
Changing electrical grid
If electric vehicles grow faster than expected, peak oil demand could
be reached sooner than expected, for instance, while more
green-generated power will alter the makeup of the electricity grid.
In a recent note to clients, Cowen analysts said that the grid will
“see more changes over the next ten years than it has in the prior 100.â€
The growing energy storage market offers no shortage of investing
opportunities, especially as government subsidies and regulations assist
the move towards clean energy. But like other highly competitive
markets — such as the semiconductor space in the 1990s — the battery
space hasn’t always provided the best return for investors. A number of
battery companies have gone bankrupt, underlining the fact that a
society-altering product might not reward shareholders.
“Eventually this will come down to some industry leaders who make
some money,†JMP Securities’ Joe Osha said. “I think all these companies
are going to do a good job of delivering declining prices for [electric
vehicle] manufacturers over the course of the next 5-10 years. I am not
so sure that they are going to generate great stockholder returns in
the process.â€
That said, while it might be tricky to invest in pure-play battery
companies, there are opportunities to target companies that stand to
benefit from the shift to a low-carbon world. For example, Sunrun is the largest residential solar company in the United States, while NextEra Energy is one of the country’s largest renewable power companies and is currently building out its utility-scale storage.
As scientists alter the chemical makeup of batteries and companies
make bets on what could be the next breakthrough technology, Dan
Goldman, founder at clean tech-focused venture capital firm Clean Energy Ventures,
said that areas like innovative battery management systems are a good
bet for investors since they can work with any battery technology.
“Capturing the massive economic opportunity underlying the shift to
controls and battery-based energy systems†requires that not only
planners, policymakers and regulators but investors “take an ecosystem
approach to developing these markets,†researchers from Rocky Mountain Institute wrote in Breakthrough Batteries: Powering the Era of Clean Electrification.
Batteries: the new star of science
Battery technology in its simplest form dates back more than two
centuries. The word itself is an umbrella term since batteries come in
all shapes and sizes: lead-acid, nickel-iron, nickel-cadmium,
nickel-metal hydride, etc.
Lithium-ion batteries — which itself can be a catchall term — were
first developed in the 1970s, and first commercialized by Sony in 1991
for the company’s handheld video recorder. They’re now found in
everything from iPhones to medical devices to planes to the
international space station.
Tags: CSE, nickel, nickel demand, stocks, tsx, tsx-v Posted in Tartisan Nickel | Comments Off on Tartisan #Nickel $TN.ca – The battery decade: How energy storage could revolutionize industries in the next 10 years $ROX.ca $FF.ca $EDG.ca $AGL.ca $ANZ.ca
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 5:29 PM on Monday, December 30th, 2019
Investment Highlights
Kenbridge property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14 million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper
17.5 (21.8 fully diluted) percent equity stake in Eloro Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property
Kenbridge Ni Project (ON, Canada)
Advanced stage deposit remains open in three directions, is
equipped with a 623m deep shaft and has never been mined
Preliminary Economic Assessment completed and updated returned robust project economics and operating costs including a NPV of C$253M and cash costs of US$3.47/lb of nickel net of copper credits
Plans for Kenbridge include updating PEA,
advancing the project through to feasibility and exploring the open
mineralization at depth
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 3:02 PM on Friday, December 20th, 2019
SPONSOR: Tartisan Nickel (TN:CSE)
Kenbridge Property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14
million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper. Tartisan also has
interests in Peru, including a 20 percent equity stake in Eloro
Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property. Click her for more information
BGL Metals Insider Says Nickel Forecasted to Shine
While stainless steel has historically been the primary end market for nickel, increased adoption of electrification in vehicle production is shifting demand for the material with advancements in battery technology
This structural shift is expected to change the supply and demand dynamics within the nickel market
CHICAGO and CLEVELAND, Dec. 18, 2019 –Â Technological advancements in the transportation industry are setting the stage for a surge in nickel demand, according to the Metals Insider, an industry report released by Brown Gibbons Lang & Company (BGL). While stainless steel has historically been the primary end market for nickel, increased adoption of electrification in vehicle production is shifting demand for the material with advancements in battery technology. This structural shift is expected to change the supply and demand dynamics within the nickel market.
Technological advancements in the transportation industry are setting
the stage for a surge in nickel demand, according to the Metals Insider,
an industry report released by Brown Gibbons Lang & Company (BGL).
While stainless steel has historically been the primary end market for
nickel, increased adoption of electrification in vehicle production is
shifting demand for the material with advancements in battery
technology.
Industry participants cite battery demand as a transformational
development for the nickel industry, with vehicle electrification and
global tightening of emissions standards key drivers underpinning market
growth:
Market forecasts quantify the shift to electric mobility, which
predict a nearly five-fold increase in electric vehicle (EV) models by
2030, when one in five passenger cars sold globally will be battery
electric vehicles. Government initiatives are driving EV growth, notably
stringent enforcement of emissions standards supported by targeted bans
on internal combustion engine vehicle sales.
Nickel consumption in EV batteries could expand ten-fold by 2025,
with battery demand projected to more than triple to an estimated 15
percent market share– up from 4 percent today.
Major nickel producers are validating the demand shift and investing
to support double-digit volume growth, with nickel integral to
strategic business models. Manufacturing capacity, raw materials
availability, and advancements in new battery technologies are critical
variables that will impact the supply outlook.
The nickel market is expected to undergo a structural shift across
the value chain that will impact supply demand dynamics for stainless
steel and nickel producers, distributors, manufacturers, and the major
end markets they serve, with the oil & gas, aerospace, and food
industries among the large consumers of the nickel- bearing material.
About Brown Gibbons Lang & Company Brown
Gibbons Lang & Company is a leading independent investment bank and
financial advisory firm focused on the global middle market. The firm
advises private and public corporations and private equity groups
on mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, capital markets, financial
restructurings, valuations and opinions, and other strategic
matters. BGL has investment banking offices in Chicago, Cleveland, and Philadelphia, and real estate offices in Chicago, Cleveland, Denver, San Antonio, and San Diego.
The firm is also a founding member of Global M&A Partners, enabling
BGL to service clients in more than 30 countries around the world.
Securities transactions are conducted through Brown, Gibbons, Lang &
Company Securities, Inc., an affiliate of Brown Gibbons Lang &
Company LLC and a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC. For more information, please visit www.bglco.com.
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 5:22 PM on Thursday, December 19th, 2019
SPONSOR: Tartisan Nickel (TN:CSE)
Kenbridge Property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14
million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper. Tartisan also has
interests in Peru, including a 20 percent equity stake in Eloro
Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property. Click her for more information
The future of nickel: tensions, trade bans and technology
It’s an interesting time for nickel on the global markets
Prices have risen dramatically despite trade tensions between the US and China, and are expected to explode as Indonesia and the Philippines prepare for nickel export bans
With increased demand for stainless steel production and recent
developments in technologies such as electric vehicles, demand for
nickel is higher than ever. Unfortunately, this demand is struggling
against an increasingly tightening supply of the essential metal.
In response to the risk of this increasing demand tightening local
supply, the Indonesian government announced in September 2019 a ban on
the export of raw nickel ores, bringing the ban forward from 2022 to
January 2020.
According to GlobalData analyst David Kurtz, this ban is intended to
produce value-added nickel products, stimulate domestic processing of
ore, and make the country a hub for electric vehicle production.
Indonesia is the largest global producer of nickel and a major
supplier of the metal to China’s stainless steel industry; in
anticipation of the ban, Chinese producers are building up nickel
inventories.
This has increased the price of nickel significantly, with prices at
the end of September 2019 reaching more than $16,000 per tonne, an
increase of more than 60% from January. When the ban was announced,
nickel prices increased by 8.8% to reach a peak of $18,620 per tonne,
the highest price since 2014.
While over half of Indonesia’s nickel is processed in the country,
around 218,000 tonnes of the metal is unprocessed and would be affected
by the ban, which represents around 10% of global demand.
Concerns over supply have led to LME nickel warehouse stock levels
dropping by almost 50% since the announcement of the ban, with Reuters reporting that stocks have fallen to 79,800 tonnes, the lowest since January 2009, as of 24 October 2019.
Potential for the Philippines?
The mining sector in the Philippines is expected to benefit from the
supply gap created by this export ban, with the country’s nickel
industry having suffered in recent years.
As the second-largest producer of nickel, the Philippines accounted for nearly 16% of global production in 2018.
However, production volumes fell sharply in 2016 when the country’s
Department of Environment and Natural Resources launched an audit
process for over 40 metallic mines, resulting in a number of suspensions
and 27 closures. Of these 27 mines, 19 were involved in nickel
production, resulting in a drop in nickel production of over 100kt.
Since the shutdowns, output has steadily increased but has become
dependent on a smaller number of operations, particularly in the mining
region of Caraga. According to Kurtz, the ban in Indonesia “paves the
way for higher exports of nickel from the Philippines to China.â€
However the shutdowns in the Philippines, as well as the lower
quality of nickel ore in the Philippines compared to Indonesia, are
expected to challenge this financial growth. The lower grade of nickel
ore in the Philippines is a particular problem for Chinese operators, as
it affects the ability of nickel pig iron producers to achieve the
necessary purity mix for stainless steel production.
With China being a significant importer of nickel, particularly for
its stainless steel production, the ongoing trade dispute between the US
and China has had a considerable influence on nickel prices.
Prior to the announcement of Indonesia’s export ban, nickel prices
fell steeply in the second half of 2018, but has eased in anticipation
of trade talks later in 2019. Indonesia’s export ban has also allowed
the price of nickel to fare better than other metals such as copper,
avoiding the longer-term financial concerns seen across the resources
sector.
Future prospects
Primary nickel production is forecast to rise by 9-10% in 2019 to
reach 2.4MT, primarily driven by an increase in Indonesia from rising
production in new mines. Demand for nickel in China is expected to grow
over 2.1Mt, as opposed to the 1.6Mt estimated for 2019.
According to analytics from GlobalData, the number of electric
vehicles is expected to increase from 1.6 million in 2018 to 6.8 million
in 2023, and the demand for nickel for lithium-ion batteries is
expected to quadruple over this period from 3-4% in 2019.
With the export bans in place, nickel prices are expected to remain
high while stocks remain low. However, any escalation of the trade
tensions between the US and China could lead to a fall in prices, and
there remains the possibility of Indonesia relaxing their export ban (as
it did previously in 2017 for a ban established in 2014).
This reversal applied to operators working on building processing
capacity, and came about due to losses incurred by stated-owned nickel
exporter PT Aneka Tambang as well as a need to ease the country’s budget
deficit.
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 11:38 AM on Thursday, December 12th, 2019
SPONSOR: Tartisan Nickel (TN:CSE)
Kenbridge Property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14
million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper. Tartisan also has
interests in Peru, including a 20 percent equity stake in Eloro
Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property. Click her for more information
Nickel prices hit 2-week high
Nickel prices hit their highest in nearly two weeks on Thursday, as investors who bet on falling prices had to buy in at a strong support level.
By Mai Nguyen
SINGAPORE, Dec 12 (Reuters) – Nickel prices hit their highest in
nearly two weeks on Thursday, as investors who bet on falling prices had
to buy in at a strong support level.
Nickel prices have fallen in the past weeks to touch a five-month low
of $12,900 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Tuesday, as
the market viewed prices more expensive than supply and demand
fundamentals indicated.
“$13,000 was a critical number to defend,†said a trader.
Three-month nickel on the LME on Thursday climbed as much as 0.9% to $13,980 a tonne, its highest since Nov. 29.
The most-traded nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange
(ShFE) jumped as high as 3.5% to 110,570 yuan ($15,708.42) a tonne,
nearing a two-week high, before ending at 110,190 yuan a tonne, up 3.1%
from the previous close.
Other nickel industry players said that a royalty hike in top nickel
ore producer Indonesia contributed to a bullish view on prices, but they
expressed uncertainty over how long the upward trend could last.
FUNDAMENTALS
* SPREAD: The LME cash nickel contract was last at a $65 a tonne
discount to the three-month contract, suggesting sufficient nearby
supplies.
* NICKEL STOCKS: LME on-warrant nickel inventories, or those
available to the market, rose to a 2-1/2-month high at 67,248 tonnes.
MNISTX-TOTAL
* ALUMINIUM STOCKS & SPREAD: LME headline aluminium stocks
MALSTX-TOTAL jumped to their highest since April 2018 at 1.33 million
tonnes, and the spread between the cash and three-month contract flipped
to a discount of $8.75 a tonne after mostly holding in the premium zone
for around a month. CMAL0-3
* OTHER PRICES: LME zinc advanced 1.3% to $2,250 a tonne at 0712 GMT,
while copper fell 0.3% to $6,139 a tonne and aluminium rose 0.3% to
$1,766 a tonne. ShFE copper rallied 0.5% to 49,030 yuan a tonne and zinc
jumped 1.1% while aluminium fell 0.3%.
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 10:30 AM on Tuesday, December 10th, 2019
Tartisan Nickel Corp. has begun
An Investor Awareness Initiative with particular focus on Tartisan’s
flagship asset – The Kenbridge Nickel Deposit in Kenora, Ontario.
Kenbridge property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14 million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper
Advanced stage deposit remains open
in three directions, is equipped with a 623m deep shaft and has
never been mined.
Preliminary Economic Assessment completed and updated returned robust project economics and operating costs including a NPV of C$253M and cash costs of US$3.47/lb of nickel net of copper credits.
Plans for Kenbridge include updating PEA, advancing the project through to feasibility and exploring the open mineralization at depth
FULL DISCLOSURE: Tartisan Nickel Corp. is an advertising client of AGORA Internet Relations Corp.
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 12:56 PM on Wednesday, November 27th, 2019
SPONSOR: Tartisan Nickel (TN:CSE)
Kenbridge Property has a measured and indicated resource of 7.14
million tonnes at 0.62% nickel, 0.33% copper. Tartisan also has
interests in Peru, including a 20 percent equity stake in Eloro
Resources and 2 percent NSR in their La Victoria property. Click her for more information
China to dominate battery metal demand
Demand trends for EV battery metals over the coming years have revealed that China will remain the key driver of direct metals demand
Direct demand for nickel, cobalt and lithium will remain the strongest in China across both the core and bearish case scenarios over the coming years.
By: Molly Hancock
Fitch Solutions’ demand trends for EV battery metals over the coming
years have revealed that China will remain the key driver of direct
metals demand.
The analysis estimates that the indirect growth for cobalt, nickel
and lithium will be the strongest across the EU under the bullish
scenario, which is underpinned by favourable policy assumptions.
However, indirect growth for these three metals will lag behind
across all scenarios in the United States, due to more restrictive EV
policy assumptions based on poor support at the federal level.
Fitch Solutions has divided the geographic demands for battery metals
into direct demand, which refers to demand from any country/region
where battery manufacturing takes place domestically and indirect
demand, which refers to demand from country/regions where EV sales make
stoke demand for batteries containing key metals that are produced.
The direct demand for nickel, cobalt and lithium will remain the
strongest in China across both the core and bearish case scenarios over
the coming years.
The Chinese Government has set ambitious EV targets and we retain a
positive outlook for China’s EV market as intensifying competition from
major vehicle brands will drive down costs and improve choice.
Despite recent subsidy cuts announced in July 2019, price reductions
among automakers and the rolling out of EV sales targets for vehicle
manufacturers will continue to position the Chinese EV market as the
most dynamic in the world.
While the demand growth for nickel, cobalt and lithium will spike in
2023-2025, Chinese carmakers’ strategies relating to EV production
targets generally end in 2025, and EV sales growth and subsequent metals
demand growth will begin to slow from 2025 onwards.
Fitch Solutions also revealed that due to the still-prevalent use of
iron-heavy LFP batteries in China, a bullish case for EV sales and
metals demand would lead to cumulative demand of 415,000 tonnes of iron
from the country over 2019-2028 compared to just 145,000 tonnes in its
bear case scenario.
Under Fitch Solutions’ bullish scenario, the EU will witness the
fastest average growth in indirect demand for cobalt (25.8 per cent
y-o-y), nickel (31 per cent y-o-y) and lithium (27.9 per cent y-o-y) up
to 2028, ahead of China and the US.
According to Fitch Solutions, the reason for this is that EU EV sales
team from a lower base in comparison to the US and China and as such
the potential for growth is higher.
For example, according to Fitch Solutions’ Autos team estimates, EV
sales will amount to over 370,000 units in 2019, compared to 458,000 in
the US and 1.252 million in China.
Within its bullish, base and bearish case scenarios, Fitch Solutions
forecast that the US indirect demand for cobalt, nickel and lithium to
average slower annual growth than in China and the EU over 2019-2028, as
a lack of supportive federal policy will pose obstacles to mass EV
adoption in the country.
In February 2019, the Trump administration announced new standards
that freeze emissions and fuel-efficiency requirements at the 2021
level, loosening previous higher targets and in contrasts to much
stricter regulations implemented by California and adopted by 12 other
states.
Its bullish case for the country assumes that future US government
policy will take a favourable turn towards the EV market, in order to
keep pace with rapidly developing EV segments in China and Europe.
The ongoing use of NCA batteries (containing nickel, cobalt and
aluminium) by Tesla in the US market means that indirect aluminium
demand will remain sustained in this market.
Cumulative indirect aluminium demand from the US EV market in our
bullish scenario will amount to 9800 tonnes over 2019-2028, compared
with to 3300 tonnes in China and 1300 tonnes in the EU.
