Agoracom

Clearly, the US consumer and economy are in trouble. Inflation in food and oil costs are sucking real money out of consumer pockets, re-financing homes is no longer an option and the markets had their worst June since the Great Depression. All of this adds up to a 28-year low in US consumer sentiment.

In this environment, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to conclude that discretionary spending is going to get hit hard in 2008 and I can’t think of a company with more discretionary products than Apple. Consumers may still want to buy MP3 players and smart phones but there are plenty of cheap alternatives to the iPod, iTunes and iPhone in the marketplace.

I am going to exercise PYMWYMI (Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is) and call for Apple to revisit $110 - $120 over the next 3-6 months. To capitalize on this, I am going to buy October puts in AAPL.

I’ll let you know how it goes.

Regards,
George

My friend, Barry Ritholtz, made a great point on Friday when he stated:

We learned today that consumer spending upwards by 0.8% in May. However, that appears to be primarily inflation driven consumption, fed by stimulus checks, and higher food and energy prices.

To illustrate his great point, consider the fact that you aren’t actually buying more gas, you are simply paying more for it. Buying more gas would imply that you are doing a lot more traveling related to business, travel, etc. and that you are filling your tank more than usual, which would be a good sign for the economy.

On the other hand, simply paying more for gas means you are driving the same (perhaps even less) but spending more money at the pump. Nobody should mistake this as a sign of a robust economy.

If he is right, then what is the actual state of consumer spending? It is an important question and, thankfully, Merril Lynch’s David Rosenberg provides the startling answer via the chart below:

For a great read on the state of consumer confidence, be sure to read Barry’s latest post.

Regards,
George

Good morning to you all. Last week, I posted my thoughts on the relevancy of small-cap investor conferences and asked for your thoughts on the matter via our simple, 4-question survey.

I’m happy to report that nearly 200 people took the time to participate in the survey (thank-you) and the detailed responses and results can now be viewed here:

For those of you that simply want the highlights, the results were as follows:

• 60% do not find conferences valuable and get everything they need from the web.
• Of those 60%, 24% responded they would not take time away from work or family as a reason.
• Of the 40% that do attend, 70% listed “meeting with company principals” as the #1 reason.
• Only 11.5% of you believe that small-cap conferences will vanish but 52% believe there will be fewer (but better) conferences.

Interesting stuff. In summary, it looks like the web takes care of all investor information needs but still can not replace personal interaction. I wonder if increased use of video (conference calls, presentations, etc.) would further erode the raison d’etre of small-cap conferences.

Thanks again to everyone that participated in the survey. Much appreciated and I hope you found the results to be equally valuable.

Regards,
George

I don’t have any empirical evidence yet but anecdotal evidence over the last 6 months is clearly indicating significant attendee drop-off in small-cap / micro-cap investor conferences across North America. Quite frankly, I am not surprised given the following factors:

• Online Research Dominates - The majority of research into new investment ideas by small-cap investors is done via the web.
• Too Big - With upwards of 400-500 pubco booths under one roof, investors typically can not make it through an entire show.
• Lack Of Focus - With so many companies from so many different fields under one roof, investors don’t know where to begin or how to separate the wheat from the chaff.
• Inconvenient - To attend a conference, you either have to take off a day of work or give up part of your weekend. Not too many people want to do either these days.

I believe the biggest challenge facing small-cap and micro-cap conferences is the temptation to keep getting bigger. Bigger is great from a revenue point of view but terrible from an attendee experience point of view. The answer is actually smaller but more frequent conferences targeted towards a specific audience. If you need any proof of this, just look at how TechTarget ate COMDEX’s lunch by providing smaller but more targeted conferences, resulting in greater revenues and fantastic attendee experiences.

QUICK SURVEY

I’d like to hear what investors think. You can simply post your comments below, or take part in our simple, 4-question survey.

UPDATE:  The survey results are in and can be found here.

INDUSTRY CONFERENCES ARE STILL VALUABLE

To be clear, Investor conferences are not to be confused with industry conferences that are strictly meant for professional networking and knowledge. For example, the Reverse Merger conference taking place in Los Angeles this week will bring together investment bankers, attorneys and other key professionals from across the world to learn about changing legislation and conduct great networking. In addition, the targeted nature of the event means attendees get a lot bang for their buck.

Regards,
George

THE SAD PART

It is with great sadness, shock and anger that we report the senseless loss of our friend, Oliver Martin, pictured on the left. Oliver was murdered just after midnight on Friday the 13th, along with his childhood friend, Dylan Ellis, while sitting in their Range Rover waiting for a friend after watching the Celtics/Lakers NBA game. Both were just 25 years old.

Me and the AGORACOM team first met Oliver at our Bay Street Hold ‘Em networking events, where he immediately stood out as an up and coming member of the Canadian finance scene. Oliver was a cool, polite, sharp-dressed and fun guy that we always invited back to our invite-only event. He also had a great poker face and actually placed in the top 3 at one of our events.

What I will remember most about Oliver were the incredible ties he always wore as part of his impeccable attire - and our inside joke that I would constantly try to buy them from him at our events.

Oliver was the youngest and only boy in a family of 4 children. Oliver and Dylan were inseparable childhood friends.

THE SHOCKING PART

You can read all the details of the murder via the extensive media coverage but by all accounts Oliver and Dylan were sitting in their truck in front of their friend’s condo just off the Toronto business district. They had just finished watching the game, actually left the area but came back for an “innocent reason” and were waiting for their friend to come down and meet them. Perhaps one of them forgot a cell phone, or returned to pick up the friend to go out for drinks? UPDATE: They were retrieving forgotten keys.

In any event, within seconds of pulling up, they were murdered in what police believe to be a botched car jacking. Police have gone out of their way to let everyone know that neither of the two were known to police and lived nothing short of exemplary lives.

THE ANGRY PART

Oliver and Dylan are dead because they drove a fucking Range Rover. We lost two exemplary citizens, children, brothers, buddies, colleagues over nothing more than a fancy truck. A random, senseless murder that could have been any of us. A crime that exemplifies the path of this city. One in which gutless “gangsters” run around with guns - and in which an even more gutless mayor governs with impotence.

Criminals in both Toronto and Canada operate without fear. Law abiding citizens have become nothing more than Zebras crossing the Mara River knowing full well some of them are going to be picked off by crocodiles. At least in Africa it is part of the natural food chain. In Toronto it is nothing more than a crime chain where hard working, law abiding people are made to feel as if they owe something to petty thieves.

I don’t know what is going to happen but the situation has to change and it has to change now. Criminals have to start living in fear. Criminals need to start getting picked off. If politicians can’t get the job done, the time may have come for angry white-collar men to take care of business themselves.

We work hard, we abide by the law and we pay our taxes. We owe nothing to the criminal underclass except for what now may be shaping up as a good fight. I know I speak for many who feel the same way. We’re sad that Oliver is gone but the manner of his passing requires a reckoning.

AGORACOM is proud to announce the launch of Investor Relations RSS Feeds for each of our clients.

MORE THAN JUST PRESS RELEASE ALERTS

RSS (Really Simple Syndication) now provides shareholders with the ability to receive any IR communication (press releases, industry bulletins, event information, media updates, executive addresses, interviews) as soon as we publish them. If you’re on the shareholder list for any of our clients, you’ll receive e-mail alerts about press releases and some other information - but not the information that is not considered “material”.

WHY SHOULD YOU USE RSS?

RSS has been around for a while but largely the domain of techies and early adopters of technology. As such, if you are like most most small-cap investors, you probably don’t use RSS feeds - yet.

RSS is a really big help for investors, analysts, fund managers and brokers that use feed readers to keep up with the plethora of market information. If you don’t use a feed reader - or “personal newspaper” as I like to refer to it - then my post on the subject is a must read for you.

The advantage of receiving RSS feeds into your “personal newspaper” is that it keeps information from multiple sources neatly organized.

This is especially true given the fact you receive information about multiple categories (small-cap stocks, large-cap stocks, general economy, health, travel, etc.) via e-mail. Your personal newspaper thus allows you to review your information by category in one location. This is a big advantage over e-mail that shoots info to you as it happens - but provides little, if any, ability to organize and review all of your incoming information at a glance.

ANOTHER INVESTOR RELATIONS FIRST FROM AGORACOM

After a review of our biggest peers, we’re proud to say that AGORACOM is once again a pioneer of great investor relations tools. We were the first (and only) to create monitored discussion forums and the first to introduce search engine marketing, podcasting and webcasting to the world of small-cap investor relations.

Now, we’re the first to introduce IR RSS feeds for small-cap companies.

Why do we keep pioneering online investor relations?  The reason is quite simple.  It is what investors want.  They want you to provide information on their terms.  The days of forcing investors to visit your site for information are over.  Your website is no longer relevant.  Investors are no longer hopping around from site to site.  They’re aggregating all of their information into one place and consuming it on their terms.  Companies who don’t realize this will die.

If you want more information on this, read my post here.  It is perhaps the best and most valuable lesson you will learn as a small-cap CEO.

HOW DO YOU START USING AGORACOM RSS FEEDS?

For now, simply visit any one of our client’s hubs and look for this . You will find it above the executive address in the right hand margin of the HUB. Alternatively, go to any HUB Home page and look for this in the “Recent Updates” box:

In the next couple of months, we are going to create an RSS page on AGORACOM where you can select any RSS feeds you want from one page.

I LIKE IT BUT I DON’T HAVE A PERSONAL NEWSPAPER .. HOW DO I SET ONE UP?

This is the question most of you are probably asking. Stay tuned. We’ll be posting an easy “how to” later today.

In the meantime, if you want to read more about RSS feeds, take a look at the Wikipedia entry for RSS.

If you don’t want to read more and aren’t interested, keep this post on file. You will begin using RSS feeds intently over the next 24 months.

Regards,
George

[UPDATE:  Thanks To All 200+ People That Attended My Keynote.  Due To My Laryngitis Issue, I will Be Re-Taping The Keynote And Making It Available On The Web For Everyone To Wach.  Expect To See It In The Next 2 Weeks!]

AGORACOM is proud to announce that we are once the Investor Relations Sponsor of the Reverse Merger Conference. The Conference is being held at the Millennium Biltmore Hotel in Los Angeles and is the largest event of its kind. To register or find out more information, please go here.

KEYNOTE INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION

We’re also happy to announce that we will once again be providing the keynote investor relations presentation on Day 1 (June 18th) at 12:05 PM. It is right before lunch and I know some will be restless, which is why I always bring a strong and energetic presentation to the stage. This year, my topic is as follows:

================

Reverse Mergers: New Company, New Management, New Vision
12:05 – 12:25 PM
Reverse Mergers face the challenge of communicating a new identity and vision to a brand new audience of shareholders. Press releases are limited, expensive and fail to accomplish the task. This presentation discusses how to build a digital community of global shareholders using powerful tools such as audio, video and photos to communicate beyond text.

================

If you’d like to watch a couple of my previous presentations, please take a look at the following:

1. PIPEs Conference 2006 - E-Mail Is Dead. How To Conduct Great IR In A Web 2.0 World
2. PIPEs Conference 2007 - How To Use The Web To Find New Investors And Turn Them Into An IR Machine
   

We are very proud to be a part of these great Deal Flow Media Events and encourage you to participate if you fall into one of the following categories:

• Structured Finance and PIPE Investors
• Investment Bankers
• Investor Relations Professionals
• Private Company Management Teams
• Accountants
• Attorneys
• Equity Analysts
• Venture Capitalists

See you in Los Angeles.

Regards,
George

Good morning to you all. US CPI numbers are out and the news isn’t good except for those buying furniture, women’s clothing and PC’s. Otherwise, the scene is pretty bad. If you like to eat, drive, drink, get an education and get medical attention when sick, life just got a whole lot more expensive.

Rather than giving you raw data, a graph is worth a thousand words:

(Thanks to Barry and Jake for the great graph)

This isn’t a pretty situation. The economy isn’t growing, yet inflation is on the rise. The government can report inflation “ex-food, ex-energy” to soften the blow - but they can’t hide the fact your pockets are still getting depleted every time you step up to the cashier and the pump.

The Fed continues to delay check mate but the fact of the matter is increasing interest rates to control inflation is only going to continue hitting real estate where it hurts. This isn’t good when foreclosures are up 48% in May and 1/483 households received a foreclosure note in May.

In addition, the resulting stronger dollar is only going to weaken exports and further slow the economy, which by most accounts (except for cheerleaders) is in a recession.

So will the Fed increase rates? Fed Funds Futures are now pricing in:

• A 100% chance that the Fed raises rates by a total of 50 bps by the October meeting.

• A 24% chance of a 75bps increase by October.
  

• By the January 2009 meeting, we have a 98% chance that Fed Funds rate will be raised by a total of 100 bps

In my opinion, I don’t think they have the guts to do it for the very reasons I outlined back on January 3rd. Here is the key excerpt:

Unfortunately, you can’t fight inflation and a credit liquidity crisis at the same time. Fighting one only makes the other problem worse. In this case, cutting interest rates will also lead to higher inflation. Afterall, the purpose of interest rate cuts is to get people to spend. Anybody want to guess what happens to gold when inflation starts climbing?

If you are a chess player, you understand the analogy that the Fed is about to sacrifice its Queen to save the King. Unfortunately, cutting interest rates to help save the real estate market is only going to delay the inevitable pain the US economy must suffer for years of excess and greed. They have picked their poison and thy name is inflation. Checkmate.

For now, the dollar is gaining strength and gold is off on sentiment that interest rates will have to increase. I think it’s far from a foregone conclusion. The Fed can argue”Core CPI” is in line with expectations - but the public outcry is going to buy it and should result in significant political pressure. Let’s see.

Regards,
George

AGORACOM is very proud to announce that we are once again sponsoring a Cambridge Conference. This time, we are sponsoring the World Resource Investment Conference on June 15-16 in Vancouver. With metals prices hitting on all cylinders, we expect to see record attendance this year, so this promises to be an incredible conference for both investors and public companies.

AGORACOM is ideally situated in the middle of the action at booth #922.

If you are a public company, you should stop by for the following reasons:

• Get real-time stock quotes
• Have AGORACOM publish your press release on Globe Investor, AOL Finance and Blackberry
• Conduct a 3-minute interview that will be broadcast on YouTube for all shareholders that live outside of Vancouver and could not make it
• Get a last-minute invite to our Pan Pacific Bay Street Hold ‘Em Tourney where we are giving away $2,500 in cash, plus food and drinks.
• Introduce yourself to AGORACOM Members that will be buzzing around the booth all day long.

Regards,
George

Here is the actual intro from the article:

The Department of Energy announced a $30 million effort Thursday with Ford, General Motors, and General Electric to bring to market by 2014 plug-in hybrid electric cars that drive 40 miles on a single charge.

Now, is it me or does $30m sound like a drop in the bucket?

Furthermore, Toyota is planning to release a plug in hybrid by 2010.

Is this a day late and a dollar short?

Either way, this is great news for companies like Avalon Ventures - an AGORACOM client.

Regards,
George