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US Real Estate – Why I Continue To Be Seriously Bearish

Posted by AGORACOM at 6:06 AM on Saturday, August 20th, 2011

I continue my 2009 bearish call on US real estate for all the same reasons … and I see nothing to even begin changing my mind.  The best Americans can hope for is a base at current levels … but my call is that US real estate is going to get worse.

If for no other reason, consider the fact that US real estate prices have failed to move higher despite US Federal Reserve ZIRP (zero interest rate policy), which we now know will continue into 2013.  God help homeowners if the bond markets decide to take matters into their own hands and demand higher rates, or if the Chinese decide enough is enough.

In the meantime, have a look at the following graph illustrating US home inventories, courtesy of the good people over at Calculated Risk …  Despite the fact that home inventories are actually lower to the tune of 8.9% over last year, the months of supply is moving higher due to a slower sales pace. That kind of divergence can only be described as bad … very bad.

AGORACOM Wire – $2,000 Gold; Nixon From The Grave; $USD End Game; Black Box Trading; US Real Estate Doomed

Posted by AGORACOM at 11:32 AM on Monday, August 15th, 2011



His Majesty The Sultantan of Oman Is A 25% Owner Of Omagine LLC … We Believe The Final Development Agreement Will Be Signed By September 15, 2011”  Full Release

*** OMAG Is A Client … We Own Shares and Options … Go To OMAG HUB

$2,000 GOLD – Bank Of America Makes The Call … Full Story

NIXON FROM THE GRAVE … Today Is The 40th Anniversary Of Nixon Removing $USD From The Gold Standard … Not A Celebration … The Case For $USD Demise … Watch Video

GOLD FOR CASH FOR MORE GOLD : Junior Gold Producers Rising to the OccasionVia Prospecting Journal Full Story

VIDEO: BLACK BOX TRADING: Want To Trade Against Black Boxes … AKA Algorithmic Trading … AKA Skynet? 1 Second Of Trades Stretched To 1 Minute

HOW GEORGE SWING TRADES: See How George Traded 2 Positions In Avalon Ventures Between Wed – Friday AGORACOM Twitter

VIDEO: US REAL ESTATE STILL DOOMED – In Case You Didn’t Believe Geore’s OCT/09 Prediction – Which Has Come True – Here Is More Support From Barry Ritholtz In AUG/11 Watch Video

In Case You Didn’t Believe My OCT/09 US Real Estate Call: Barry Ritholtz Video

Posted by AGORACOM at 11:41 AM on Friday, August 12th, 2011

I’ve been unwavering in my call for continued US real estate carnage since 2009 … nothing has changed my mind and I continue to believe it gets worse … my friend Barry Ritholtz agrees BUT he does pitch a great solution around immigration policies that I totally agree with.

SNAPSHOT: How $14.3 Trillion Debt Was Acquired .. & Who Holds It

Posted by AGORACOM at 12:29 AM on Monday, August 8th, 2011

I won’t say anything more than thanks to my friend Barry Ritholtz for this awesome snapshot of The $14.3 Trillion US Debt picture. Read his blog and learn!

Courtesy of Barry Ritholtz

AGORACOM Small Cap Wire … AAA … QE3 … Gold & Silver Sky’s The Limit

Posted by AGORACOM at 10:21 AM on Saturday, August 6th, 2011



Does This Now Make QE3 A Lock? We Don’t See Any Other Choice … Any Fallout In Bond Market Creates Higher Interest Rates, Making US Debt Service Untenable … GOLD … GOLD … GOLD

To America … Emigrate To Canada … Fast This Post By George Caused A Stir Around The Web On July 27th … Hold On To Your Hats Now That It’s Been Updated

In Case You Were Wondering … Complete S&P Sovereign Ratings List … Where Does Your Country Stand?

Blame Boehner & GOP … This Is Not A Political Statement, This Is Fact. Brinkmanship Worked Politically, Failed Financially … See George’s Warnings + S&P Statement Yesterday Citing “Brinkmanship” Factor

QE3 RISING? (Updated)

Almost Every Headline Believes So (QE3 News Results)

On March 30th, then again on April 11th, George predicted QE3 would be delayed due to politics, cause damage and then be ushered in … We Don’t See How It Can Be Avoided Now

  • Markets Hit Hard Since QE2 Ended June 30th
  • FOMC Meeting Is August 9th
  • Marc Faber – Next Week Will Show If Bernanke Is A True Money Printer, Or An Amateur ZeroHedge
  • Former Federal Reserve Officials Signal QE3 Support AGORACOM Twitter

GOLD AND SILVER – The Sky Is The Limit

1:1 Gold / Dow Ratio? See The 200 Year Chart And Discuss … This Article Continues To Be A Favourite Amongst Members

iPHONE + iPAD – Download Your FREE AGORACOM App Today


Rap Video: Raise The Debt Ceiling (It’s Actually Gooood)

Posted by AGORACOM at 8:11 PM on Wednesday, August 3rd, 2011

Whether you like rap or not, this is simply a great parody video. The words are great and the tune is actually catchy believe it or not. Not a bad tool for teaching younger people about what is going on.

“More unsustainable than my rap career” funny but frighteningly true

To America … Emigrate To Canada … Fast

Posted by AGORACOM at 12:04 PM on Wednesday, July 27th, 2011

Move To Canada Before America Crashes and Burns

UPDATE (AUGUST 6TH) … This Post Was Originally Posted On July 27th … It Was A Big Hit … It Will Be An Even Bigger Hit Now That America Has Been Stripped Of It’s AAA Rating By S&P … See “1A” Added To The List Below.


I love my American friends, family and neighbors.  I’ve spent a lifetime defending them in heated conversations around the world with people who don’t share my affection for the land of the free …

… but my affection has a limit.  America is lost on so many levels. Reality TV, Wall Street thieves, divisive politics, poor getting poorer, senseless wars …. and now a complete loss of leadership as political leaders put agendas before the financial security of its citizens.

To My American Friends … This Is Not A Joke … Move To Canada. Many high-net worth associates of mine have been inquiring at local Canadian embassies about emigrating to Canada. You should to. Why?

1. Sound Finances. Yes, we have personal debt but it’s tied to real assets and reasonable ratios. Hence, why our banks are rated the safest in the world.

1A AAA RATED …. Canada Is AAA Rated (see here) … America Is Not

2. Universal Health Care – you won’t lose your house because you can’t pay your medical bills

3. Low Low Low crime rate

4. Most similar culture to the USA on the planet

5. Rich in natural resources to feed a growing planet for the next 100 years

6. We love the NFL and NBA … MLB not so much

7. Great beer

8. We’re cool with different cultures

9. Our media isn’t controlled by people that want to keep us in constant fear

10. Our politics aren’t driven by rich, self-interested, divisive politicians

Hope to see you here.


40% of US 2nd Mortgages Are Underwater …. Double Dip Becoming A Double Crash … QE3 Coming

Posted by AGORACOM at 9:31 AM on Friday, June 10th, 2011

If you really need the full story click here – but this says it all

PIMCO Shorts US Debt, Goes To Cash – What Does This Mean For Small-Cap Investors?

Posted by AGORACOM at 8:46 AM on Monday, April 11th, 2011

The biggest news for small-cap investors to digest – by far – is that PIMCO has not only sold all of its US Debt Holdings, it has gone short.  Find my comments below via Twitter (reverse chronology) and my follow on comments below on how this plays out (theory vs. practically):

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN – Theoretically?

On it’s surface (I stress SURFACE), Bill Gross, Founder of PIMCO, is telling us that QE3 isn’t coming and nobody will be stepping into to replace US Fed purchases of US Gov’t debt.  That will lead to – at the very least – a drop in Debt prices, so he is getting the hell out of Dodge.  Simple enough … until you get to my practical comments below.

First, here are the theoretical (I stress THEORETICAL) follow-on effects:

INTEREST RATES – Going higher, just a matter of degree

$USD – Should strengthen with rising rates

EQUITIES – Should weaken for two reasons: A) Corporate expenses rise on higher borrowing rates = lower profits; B) Investors sell stocks to raise cash. Small-cap resource stocks fall in unison.

GOLD / SILVER – Should weaken against the US Dollar at the very least, potentially against most major currencies

US REAL ESTATE – Bombs Away .. my real estate theory since October 2009 remains intact

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN – Practically?

Unfortunately, we have learned over the last decade that economic theory can no longer be relied upon.  After all, interest rate easing that began after 9/11 was never intended to crash real estate markets, plunge the planet into a debt crisis and lead to record nominal gold prices … yet here we are despite the “brightest” minds at the US Fed, White House and Central Banks around the world.

What truly happens isn’t so linear because market manipulation has taken the natural ebb and flow out of all markets – debt, equities, commodities, currencies.  Prices are no longer determined by value – they are determined by confidence or a lack thereof.  As such, what should practically happen is the following:

CONFIDENCE CRISIS – When US Fed purchases of US debt vanishes and isn’t replaced by the market, a crisis of confidence will commence.

INTEREST RATES – Will move incrementally higher, then accelerate as US debt prices free fall

$USD – Will initially strengthen with rising rates and bond nibbling, then drop as investors realize bond/confidence risk is too great.  Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar will do very well.

EQUITIES – Double Dip probability rises dramatically. Small-cap resource stocks take an initial hit, followed by massive rebound on gold, silver moves (see below).

GOLD / SILVER- Will initially weaken by as much as 20% /30% respectively on early $USD strength, then rocket towards all-time inflation adjusted highs of ~ $2,200 and $150 within 12 months

US REAL ESTATE – Bombs Away .. my real estate theory since October 2009 remains intact


I’d like to think so – but I don’t think so for two reasons:

1] Obvious Reason – I could be very wrong and a number of other outcomes could occur.  This time, I think I’m right – but see #2 below

2]  The Fed / White House / Wall Street Financial Matrix Isn’t Stupid – Despite what many smart people have to say, the powers that be aren’t as stupid as they seem.  They just don’t give a damn about your long-term interests. Despite damage to the current and long-term US economy, I firmly believe they have executed their plan perfectly in their best interests – and they’re not finished ….


It’s coming … 100% … only this time it will require the financial pain I have outlined above in order to politically justify it … but as I posted on March 30th, QE3 Will Be Delayed, Not Terminated.

At that point, the game plan resumes … but not before Bill Gross and PIMCO step back into US Debt, go long and make a killing on their cash thanks to rising debt prices, which leads to falling rates, much weaker $USD, stabilized stock markets, MUCH higher gold/silver, MUCH higher junior resource stocks.

Until then, plan accordingly.


US BLS Lies To Support Lies … Crazy But True … Play The Game Accordingly

Posted by AGORACOM at 12:58 AM on Friday, April 1st, 2011

It is no secret to anyone watching beyond CNBC headlines that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been reporting lower jobless claims to placate markets on a reporting day – only to “revise” the figures upwards when nobody is looking a few days later.  In layman’s terms – they lie about the actual numbers.

Now, the problem is getting worse.  They are using “revised data” lies to support “improvement” lies.  Sounds complicated but it is quite simple and it goes something like this:

  1. BLS reports jobless statistics (“A”) and sounds victory bells
  2. BLS revises jobless figures higher when everybody has left the victory party and nobody is looking (“B”)
  3. BLS reports jobless figures next month (“C”) that are higher than “A” but lower than “B”
  4. BLS sounds victory bells because “C” came in lower than “B”, when they should have been comparing to “A”

For An Actual Example With Figures, See The Image Below That Apparently Made Rick Santelli Flip Out On CNBC Today.

In short, they always claim victory despite revisions and actual figures going higher.  No defeats, just victories.  Don’t complain.  Just be smart enough to know the US government is playing games with all economic data (i.e. inflation) and play along with them.  Just be prepared to bail if actual results don’t eventually catch up to the Fairy Tale Data.

Click on Image For Full Story At ZeroHedge