Agoracom Blog

AGORACOM Interview: Jim Sinclair Issues $1,000,000 Challenge To All Gold Bears

Posted by AGORACOM at 6:21 PM on Friday, April 4th, 2008

Good afternoon to you all. The title is neither a mistake, nor a gimmick. Jim Sinclair, whom the NY Times referred to as “perhaps the best-known gold speculator of his era”, has built a legendary reputation for his gold market calls since the 1970’s. For example:

  • In the 70’s he predicted that gold would hit a high of $900 (it hit $875)
  • Achieved his renown status when he sold 900,000 ounces of gold at an average price of $810 in early 1980, when gold was capping a decade-long bull market that commenced in 1971
  • Called for a 15-year bear market in gold (it lasted 21 years)
  • Has been a buyer of gold since it hit $250 in 2001
  • Predicted that gold would hit a high of $1,650 in this cycle, since 2003.

PYMWYMI – $1,000,000 Challenge

With gold now about 10% of its $1,030 high, gold bears are saying the party is over thanks to a recovering US financial sector. Jim thinks otherwise but rather than wasting time “flapping gums” he is exercising his right to PYMWYMI (Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is) and challenging any bear to do the same by laying $1,000,000 on the line.

It looks like Jim is specifically hunting for big game by targeting “any party on Bloomberg, CNBC or CNN Business“. I don’t know about you but I personally admire anybody who will man up and lay down that kind of money to back up his words. Right now, Jim Sinclair is the Muhammad Ali of the markets for going beyond plain predictions and providing specific details of his victory.


After first hearing about the wager on my friend Barry Ritholtz’s blog, I had to know more and decided to call Sinclair directly. We had never met before and he was reluctant at first to conduct any kind of interview, stating “I didn’t do this for publicity, just tell your audience about the wager”. No publicity? Now I couldn’t give up. After 10 minutes, I convinced him that my intent was not to glamorize the bet – but to uncover his reasoning behind his gold call. … I also told him I was 6’4, 240 lbs and had a great working knowledge of Google Maps, so he finally agreed.

I interviewed him this morning at 11:00 and discovered this was no conspiracy theory ladened gold bug. He was incredibly well reasoned and even sympathized with Ben Bernanke and his actions, however futile they may be. Yes, the sky is falling but he prefers it wasn’t happening. He isn’t cheering for gold to advance as a result of a crumbling US Dollar but his logic tells him it is simply a consequence of events and policy that started with Alan Greenspan.

I could put together a highlight list but it would not do Jim’s words any justice. This is one interview you have to listen to.

Having said that, I will provide you with one provocative morsel:

“What else is there to do? If they stepped away right now and let Bear Stearns go broke, the ramifications for the man walking on the street is he should walk straight to the soup kitchen.”

I look forward to your comments.


2 Responses to “AGORACOM Interview: Jim Sinclair Issues $1,000,000 Challenge To All Gold Bears”

  1. AGORACOM says:

    Good morning, Mark and thanks for the comment. We’re curious to see who the other party is. I guess we’ll know by Monday from the sounds of it.


  2. Mark Herpel says:

    Betting against Jim? Oh, now there’s a really bad bet!