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Peter Grandich Sheds Permabear Skin And Begins Building Long Portfolio

Posted by AGORACOM at 7:39 AM on Sunday, March 8th, 2009

AGORACOM Chief Commentator, Peter Grandich, has offcially shed his permabear skin according to his latest blog post.  This is a pretty important declaration because Grandich has an uncanny ability to call market tops and bottoms in commodities and equity indexes.  In fact, it’s the primary reason I brought him on to AGORACOM and I would easily state that he ranks up there with Peter Schiff.

GRANDICH HAS BEEN JUST AS RIGHT AS PETER SCHIFF

I’m going to work on compiling a chronology over the past couple of years but go ahead and google “Grandich + robbing Peter to pay Paul and Peter is tapped out” (OK, I did it for you).   It’s the phrase he’s been using for 3-4 years now to help illustrate the state of the US economy to his audience and a quick scan of the Google results finds at least one quote in Kitco from the summer of 2005.

At the beginning of 2008, Grandich banged the table on going short the US market once the Dow crossed 13,000.  In short, he’s just been dead on.

GRANDICH NOW BULLISH?

To be clear, he is not advocating running out and filling your boots today.  Grandich believes Dow 5,000 vs. 8,000 is an even money bet right now.  Given the fact his readers have been able to avoid the fall from 14,500 to 6,600, he’s willing to take small losses in order to be a year early, rather than a day late.

Like a freight train that takes miles to come to a full stop once the brakes have been applied, Grandich believes the markets are now in the same process and investors need to start reserving some choice seats for the turn around.

In the short-term however, he does state the following:

“At the minimum, we’re overdue for a sharp bear market rally. Never have my technical indicators suggested so in almost 25 years. Several market indexes are dramatically below key moving averages. Several have never seen this far of a spread between price and moving average while others only once or twice. Knowing in technical analysis you must look only at the charts, I do believe anyone experienced in this type of analogy would suspect as I do that a significant correction of an almost straight-down decline is overdue.”

He’s even put his money where his mouth is and provided specific equities and ETF’s that he would be buying, with a lot of emphasis on oil companies.  Sound choices if you expect the global economy to begin turning around in the next 12-15 months and the stock market to anticipate it sooner.

He also believes gold and precious metals continue to be attractive investments that will run as inflation – due to extreme US deficits – hits the US economy over the next couple of years.

Read his full post.  It is worth the read.

Regards,
George

AGORACOM Welcomes NioGold Mining (NOX: TSXV) To AGORACOM 100

Posted by AGORACOM at 12:13 PM on Wednesday, February 25th, 2009

On Friday February 20th, 2009 NioGold Mining Corporation was added to the AGORACOM 100. NioGold is well positioned to take advantage of the breakout in Gold prices, having consolidated a large mineral rights land package in the Abitibi Gold District, Quebec.

Highlights include:

Gold Assays from 2008 Drill Program Malartic Gold Camp, Abitibi Region, Quebec:

  • MB-08-090: 10.71 g/t Au over 1.1 metres
  • MB-08-078: 1.78 g/t Au over 47.4 metres
  • MB-08-080: 26.70 g/t Au over 1.2 metres
  • MB-08-063: 10.24 g/t Au over 2.5 metres

Recent News:

MARBAN WEST EXTENSION DRILLING RESULTS

February 5, 2009

MARBAN DRILLING RETURNS MORE HIGH-GRADE GOLD INTERSECTIONS

January 20, 2009
NioGold Corporation Full Profile

NioGold Corporation HUB

NioGold Corporation Shareholder Forum

GOLD FACT Via ChinaSecurities.com Blog – China Is World’s Largest Producer and Consumer of Gold

Posted by AGORACOM at 2:22 PM on Tuesday, February 24th, 2009

[Via ChinaSecurites.com Blog]

China surpassed South Africa to become the leading producer and it replaced India as the leading consumer of gold. Something I learned from this gold quiz.

Regards,
George

Technical Corner – Evolving Gold (EVG: TSXV) Presentation

Posted by AGORACOM at 10:18 AM on Thursday, February 19th, 2009

Evolving Gold Corp. is featured on the Technical Corner. Rattlesnake Hills assay results for the first nine holes reveal an intersection of 2.92 Grams/Tonne gold over 146 Meters and 2.74 Grams/Tonne gold over 131 meters. The company currently has $17.5 Million in the treasury. The Evolving Gold management team has over 200 years of collective experience. Click on image below to be taken directly to the presentation.

Link to hub

AGORACOM Gold Clients To Consider As Gold Breaks $960 Tonight $$

Posted by AGORACOM at 9:10 AM on Tuesday, February 17th, 2009

Good day to you all.  With gold now having broken through resistance at $940, sliding past $1,000 appears imminent. If you subscribe to this theory and looking for some great junior gold stories, have a look at the following AGORACOM clients.  Assume we are horribly conflicted and let me know if the numbers speak for themselves:

Its wholly-owned Kenville Gold Mine property is ranked the 26th largest gold producer in British Columbia history. The Company recently announced the discovery of 4 new gold veins with intercepts up to 26.6 g/t Au, 40.2 g/t Ag. This newly discovered high grade gold vein system, which can be traced for at least 700 metres, represents a potential new gold + silver resource on the Kenville property.

Link to hub

The company currently has $17.5 Million in the treasury. Hole RSC-003 recently intersected 2.92g/t gold over 146m. The Evolving Gold management team has over 200 years of collective experience.

Link to hub

Focused on upgrading resources to reserves and complete a mine development at El Valle in northwestern Spain. The estimated resources for El Valle/Carles resources as of January 20th, 2009 are as follows:

[Measured Indicated & Inferred] 2,237,000 Ounces Gold; 190 million pounds Copper ([email protected] Au/t and 0.63% CU; Scoping Study Now Available.

Link to hub

Company has cash in the bank ($10M financing Q3/08), a current drill program of 30,000m, upcoming resource calculation Q1/09 and scoping study Q2/09. Recent intersections include 31.08 Metres of 16 g/t gold equivalent.

Link to hub

Northern Star Mining’s crown jewel, the Midway property, is an advanced gold project located in the Abitibi Gold Belt in Quebec. Recent results include: 2.54oz/t Over 15.74 Ft on significant new Midway gold discovery

Link to hub

NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate with 372,900 Oz gold indicated and 321,800 Oz gold inferred. The Brookbank property is located in the prolific Beardmore-Geraldton Greenstone Belt and is one of the largest undeveloped resources of northern Ontario.

Link to hub

Seven new gold bearing veins were discovered on the Golden Extension in Northwestern Ontario. The Golden Extension reported channel results of up to 136.5 g/t gold and is believed to be the northwest extension of Kodiak’s Golden Mile.

Link to hub

Company has over $30 million cash, an NI 43-101 resource estimate of 19.7 million ounces of gold indicated and 14.3 million ounces of gold inferred. Seabridge owns 100% of the KSM project in British Columbia, one of the world’s largest undeveloped gold deposits. Seabridge was added to the S&P Global Gold and S&P Global Mining Index.

Link to hub

Shoreham recently intercepted 1.15g/t Au over 215m at its majority-owned Marudi Mountain Gold Project in Guyana and up to 209.5 g/t Au across an 80 cm vein at their Black Banana property, also in Guyana.

Link to hub

Regards,
George

MacroTwits Quote Of The Day: Inflation or Deflation – Gold Wins

Posted by AGORACOM at 10:39 PM on Sunday, February 8th, 2009

Gregor Macdonald
MacroTwits Excerpt

By the way, this came a close second:

Regards,
George

September 15, 2008 – The Day The Global Economic And Political System Almost Ended

Posted by AGORACOM at 2:01 PM on Sunday, February 8th, 2009

What were you doing on and around September 15th 2008? I know gold moved from $780 to $906 in the following week.

What I (and you) didn’t know was that a $550 Billion electronic run on the banks had taken place in about two hours on the morning of September 15th – and unabated it would have lead to a complete collapse of the global economic and political system within 24 hours.

If you owned gold, however, life would have carried on.

Paul Kedrosky describes it as follows:

=================

OK, that was close.

Regards,
George

Barry Ritholtz “Gold Has A Date With $1,500 Somewhere In The Future”

Posted by AGORACOM at 11:09 PM on Tuesday, December 16th, 2008
The Will Hunting Of Wall Street - Hes Wickid Smawt

The Will Hunting Of Wall Street - "He's Wickid Smawt"

Readers of my blog are very well acquainted with Barry Ritholtz, arguably the best financial blogger on the web.  For those of you who are hearing about him for the first time, Barry Ritholtz is the Will Hunting of Wall Street – a down to earth guy who is “wicked smawt”.

On December 8th, he completed this interview with Barron’s (highly recommended reading) in which he gave his outlook on the markets.  He provided an outlook on various sectors, including following outlook on gold:

Has gold bottomed?

I don’t know where gold bottoms. We recommended gold for the first time in 2002 or 2003. It was strictly an inflation trade, thanks to Greenspan. And then when the GLD gold ETF first came out, we recommended that. Gold has a date with $1,500 somewhere in the future [up from $763 an ounce now], [now trading at $857]  but whether it makes that move from 700 or from 400, I have no idea. You just can’t print that much paper and debase the currency and not see some sort of reaction.”

When really intelligent people talk openly about 5-digit gold, the commodity has moved beyond the fringe and into the mainstream.  This potentially bodes very well for North American juniors…..stay tuned.

Regards,
George

Gold Breaks Through $850 As Fed “Vows To Use All Tools”

Posted by AGORACOM at 2:35 PM on Tuesday, December 16th, 2008

The US Fed today established a target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 0.25%, effectively cutting its key rate for overnight lending to banks by between 0.75% and 1%.

  • The Federal Reserve pulled out all the stops in its campaign to save the U.S. economy today, slashing interest rates to just about zero and promising to try an array of new economic measures to stimulate spending.
  • North American equity markets have rocketed on the news, with the Dow up 360 points to 8925+ and the TSX up 260 to 8725+.
  • The $US is significantly weaker against all major currencies.

Gold prices broke through $850 on the news and are trading at $857.50 on the spot market.

First Ever Gold “Backwardation” Could Signal Price Spike As COMEX Runs Out Of Gold

Posted by AGORACOM at 9:28 AM on Thursday, December 11th, 2008

AGORACOM Chief Commentator, Peter Grandich, made a call to BNN to alert them about this article on gold officially hitting backwardation.  Backwardation occurs when the futures price of a commodity is lower than prices in the cash market.

Forward prices for gold turned negative on December 2nd and, according to Antal Fekete the author of the story, this is the first time it has happened in history (with the exception of contract expiry dates for a couple of minutes).  Fekete states:

“On December 2nd, at the Comex in New York, December gold futures
(last delivery: December 31) were quoted at 1.98% discount to spot,
while February gold futures (last delivery: February 27, 2009) were
quoted at 0.14% discount to spot. (All percentages annualized.)

The condition got worse on December 3rd, when the corresponding
figures were 2% and 0.29%. This means that the gold basis has turned
negative, and the condition of backwardation persisted for at least 48 hours.

In addition, demand for gold delivery on December 31 means COMEX may be running out of gold.  Specifically, 40% of COMEX’s 2.8 million ounces is set for delivery on December contracts but – given the fact not all COMEX gold is available for delivery – this means COMEX supply will fall short if demand for delivery does not change between now and the end of the month.

Why is this taking place? Fekete believes owners of gold are no longer willing to sell their gold at any price. Thus, as opposed to selling on the spot at a higher price and buying it on the futures at a lower price – an easy arbitrage trade – they are choosing to hold onto their physical gold because they don’t believe it will be available for delivery in the future.

Conclusion – a supply shortage in gold can only translate into a significantly higher price.

BNN INTERVIEW

As a result of the Grandich Alert to BNN, John Ing – CEO of Maison Placements – was brought in to talk about the matter further on The Close. You can view the interview by clicking on the screenshot above.

Gold prices broke through $825 today and is up 4 days in a row.

UPDATE #1: Backwardation has hit mainstream, with a discussion on CNBC at 9:30 AM this morning (December 11)

UPDATE #2: Merril Lynch Chief Economist, Dave Rosenberg, was on CNBC this morning and said gold is a hedge against inflation and deflation.  The only time gold isn’t a good investment is during “perfect” bull markets such as the one we had in the 90’s.

Regards,
George