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We Are Officially Living In The Financial Matrix

Posted by AGORACOM at 10:14 AM on Tuesday, September 23rd, 2008
  • Negative Savings
  • Negative Home Equity
  • Negative Stock Markets
  • Complete Fiduciary Failures

You may think the source of our economic problems stem from banks gone wild, or regulators gone missing.

Look again.

The source of our entire economic problem stems from the fact human beings over the last 20 years began valuing themselves by what they can buy and show.

Madison Ave has done a simply masterful job of selling the masses on glitz, glam and bling as requisites to being a complete person.  Paul Kedrosky cited Google Trends today as evidence that the masses appetite for celebs, cars, and TV crap is stronger than ever – even as the economy is on the verge of utter collapse.

WE ARE NOW LIVING IN A FINANCIAL MATRIX

We are living in a Financial Matrix. Where humans are used for nothing more than to power the sales of global corporations until their equity, savings and credit are completely dried up.

Now that the Financial Matrix can’t suck anymore out of humans, it’s time for the entire Matrix to collapse, leaving only a few strong and chosen people to re-build and then repeat the cycle.

Andy and Larry Wachowski are absolutely brilliant. Too bad they can’t provide us with our Neo.

Regards,
George

It’s Official – This Is A TRILLION Dollar Problem. 6 Trillion To Be Exact

Posted by AGORACOM at 9:29 AM on Tuesday, September 23rd, 2008

The Financial Collapse of 2008 means among other things, that Mike Myers will have to significantly adjust Dr. Evil’s dreams of “$1 Million” ransom significantly higher.

That’s because the ransom held by investment bankers over every one of our heads is between $5 and $6 TRILLION dollars. The $5 Trillion figure came from JF Tardif (ranked by Barron’s as the #18 Hedge Fund Manager on the planet) during an interview on BNN this morning. I live posted 4 of his comments in my Twitter micro-blog which can be seen seen in order here, here, here and (the Trillion dollar post) here.

The $6 Trillion figure came from this Financial Times article (hat tip to Paul Kedrosky). The FT article is a must read in it’s entirety, so I’m not going to provide any bullet point highlights.  Read it.

In the meantime, according to Tardif, start looking to shore up your portfolio with some good energy and agricultural plays.

Regards,
George

Commodities Catch Fire – Gold Up $42 To $906, Oil Up $7.45 To $112

Posted by AGORACOM at 12:19 PM on Monday, September 22nd, 2008

Oil is up on hopes that the bailout will stabilize the economy and bolster the kind of economic growth that will require more oil.

After hitting the SEC short wall on Friday, gold is resuming it’s rapid climb above $900 with a big $42 move as of 1:00 PM EST. Clearly, this is a flight to quality as investors fear US financial unknowns that can’t be masked by a ban on short selling.

However, more than just flight to quality, we also have the makings of a real supply demand issue.  If you missed my post of September 17th, here is an excerpt:

London-based researcher GFMS Ltd. states that Central Bank sales will drop 46 percent in 2008, while mine supply will decline for a third year.  Specifically, with respect to mine supply, global mine production will drop 2.3 percent this year to 2,422 tons, the lowest since 1996 That is going to put great pressure on an already string tight supply issue.

Regards,
George

SEC Bans Short Selling – NFL Bans Blitzes – MLB Bans Double Plays – NHL Bans Goalies

Posted by AGORACOM at 2:22 AM on Friday, September 19th, 2008

“We need more offense – so let’s just make defense illegal” – A high ranking group of idiots in Washington

The headline says it all.  The SEC just issued this press release.  I should be happy because this benefits my investor relations business immensely – but it’s hard to celebrate a hat-trick when the powers that be decided to ban goalies from the game. Moreover, after hitting $920 yesterday, gold is now trading around $850, so not so great news for resource companies.

Sure, it’s good for every long investor (most investors) – but it is still a joke.  If the SEC and every other regulator actually did their job, short-sellers wouldn’t have a reason to short financial stocks so aggressively.  Moreover, if shorts were wrong, long investors would buy cheap shares and squeeze shorts into oblivion.

United States Is Now A Banana Republic

I’d go on but this is such a blatantly stupid reaction to a series of blatant/fraudulent/ignorant screw ups by Wall Street and its regulators that I wouldn’t know where to begin and where to end.

Thankfully, we have Barry Ritholtz, one of the smartest finance guys in the galaxy, to sum it all up as follows:

This is the ultimate bailout attempt, which will have repercussions far far beyond our imaginations:

1) We suffer a loss of Market Integrity; The US is now a Banana Republic

2) Blatant market manipulation: this is nothing more than an attempt to force markets higher;

3) 60 days prior to a presidential election? This is a none-too-subtle attempt to influence the elections — especially coming on top of the Fannie/Freddie bailout;

4) The coming pop will create a huge air pocket, ultimately leading to us crashing much lower;

5) Expect a huge increase in volatility — upwards first, then down;

We Are A Nation of Morons, led by complete Idiots, making us complicit in our own self destruction.

Well said Barry.

Regards,
George

p.s. Where the hell was the SEC all these years when naked short selling drove small-cap companies out of business?

p.s.s  I am adding this post to my “stock scams” category.

“Short Sellers” Are The New “Evil Doers” – Bullshit

Posted by AGORACOM at 2:08 PM on Thursday, September 18th, 2008

As all of my regular readers know from reading my posts over the last 12 months, the US Financial Crisis has NOTHING to do with short sellers.  I thought this point was so obvious that I never bothered addressing it…but when John McCain calls for the firing of SEC Chairman Christopher Cox because he allowed short selling I have to step in.

Why? Because McCain is wrong and he knows it.  This is classic misdirection for the purpose of political gain.  Americans need a villain to blame the crisis on and it’s a much stronger/easier sound bite to say “short sellers” than to explain the crisis as follows (Quote from Paul Kedrosky).

“Repeat after me: The trouble is not with short-sellers. The trouble is not with short-sellers.
The trouble is with an over-levered financial system built on a house of cards comprised
of under-collateralized toxic paper that was applauded all the way up by “housing is the
American dream” nutters who couldn’t see that vast expansions in thinly-traded credit are
a path to economic ruin.”

Now that I think about it, it is easier to say “short sellers” and “evil doers” afterall.

Regards,
George

Bloomberg – Gold May Hit $950 As Central Banks and Miners Hold Back Sales. Grandich Pegs It Again

Posted by AGORACOM at 11:43 AM on Wednesday, September 17th, 2008

Gold is up $64 to $844 as of 12:15 PM EST. I could end this post here and that one sentence could be the entire story.

However, like a good infomercial, “there is more!”.  Specifically, Bloomberg is running a story that gold may hit $950 by the end of the year “as central banks and miners hold back sales and investors buy the metal as a haven against falling stock prices.”

The good news for gold bugs is that a $950 price isn’t tethered to simply a shaky stock market. Otherwise, a market turnaround on its own could quell the gold rush.

Rather, London-based researcher GFMS Ltd. states that Central Bank sales will drop 46 percent in 2008, while mine supply will decline for a third year.  Specifically, with respect to mine supply, global mine production will drop 2.3 percent this year to 2,422 tons, the lowest since 1996 That is going to put great pressure on an already string tight supply issue.

Moreover, GFMS believes demand from investors worldwide will soar 38 percent to 778 metric tons, with purchases in east Asia more than doubling.

GRANDICH HITS THE NAIL ON THE HEAD AGAIN

If I didn’t know any better, I would think that Peter Grandich single-handedly sets the price of gold.  For about the zillionth time over the last 3 years, Grandich once again pegged an overextended gold price (oversold or overbought) when he made this statement just 5days ago in his newsletter:

“I have just recorded the single most oversold condition for Gold since the great
bull market began at the start of this decade”

After a brief hiatus, it looks like gold is back and possibly stronger than ever.

Regards,
George

Gold/Silver/Copper Price Drop Is Actually VERY Good For Small-Cap Stocks

Posted by AGORACOM at 8:42 PM on Monday, August 11th, 2008

Gold got whacked today and finished at $US 820/oz, its lowest point of the year. I actually think know this is a good thing for small-cap gold stocks. Why? Gold’s move above $1,000 was largely based on a US economic catastrophe caused by one or a combination of the following:

  • Banking Failures
  • Real Estate Crash
  • Inflation
  • Stock Market Crash
  • The Village People Reuniting (Would Have Taken Markets Back To 1978 Levels…aaaaaah!)

Any one of these events would have been good for gold prices but terrible for stocks of junior gold companies. After all, if the market is crashing south of the border, would you be buying blue-chip stocks, let alone juniors? The answer is no.

Thus, $1,500 gold and a crushed stock market is in very few people’s best interest. If you need any further proof of this, just take a look at the carnage in the junior metals sector over the past 6 months. Sky-high commodity prices were simply no match against the threat of a possible market collapse.

On the other hand, today’s drop in gold was based on renewed confidence in the US markets over the past several days. The US still has a boatload of problems to deal with and any one of them could still turn ugly – but for now people are feeling as if the US can navigate the rough seas without sinking.

CONCLUSION:

At the end of the day, investors in gold/silver/copper and other precious metal stocks are better off with prices at $750/$14.50/$3.50 and a stable US stock market. This provides the markets with the best of both worlds – economic commodity prices and panic free stock markets.

Spread the word…happy days are coming back to the junior metals markets.

Regards,
George

Jim Rogers Talking Freddie, Fannie, Benny, Uncle Sammy and China

Posted by AGORACOM at 7:16 AM on Monday, July 14th, 2008

Good morning to you all. Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund along with billionaire investor George Soros and whom we covered on AGORACOM quite extensively, was on Bloomberg TV this morning discussing every financial crisis under the sun.

I am writing this as I watch the interview, so don’t mind my form but do mind the facts.

UPDATE: Video is now up on Bloomberg.

Rogers was one of the first to go on record with a $200 oil call, saying $100 oil was a forgeone conclusion, as well as, $1,000 gold. He is also one of the biggest US bears out there, having announced that he is selling all of his US holdings and dollars, as well as, going short on the entire financial sector. Read our coverage from November 2007 here.

On the other hand, he is the biggest Agricultural bull anywhere, telling investors at every opportunity to buy Agriculture due to demand out of Asia.

Given what has happened to oil, gold, US markets, the US dollar and Agriculture, we make sure to pay attention to anything he has to say. You don’t have to follow all of his advice – but you should consider his comments at the very least.

*NOTE – This was an interview via Satellite so the notes below are more like shorthand notes…but they’re well worth your time tor read.

(more…)

Boone Pickens Predicts Higher Gold Prices On CNBC

Posted by AGORACOM at 7:16 AM on Tuesday, July 8th, 2008

In a CNBC special feature this morning discussing solutions to America’s energy crisis, Boone Pickens (and Byron Wein, Chief Investment Strategist at Pequot Capital) predicted higher gold prices as Chinese and other large holders of US dollars “look for alternatives”.

Why? Their extensive dealings with investors around the world reveals they are beginning to feel “skiddish” about the size of the $US holdings and looking for alternatives. Gold was the first and only alternative they mentioned.

During the interview, Boone and Byron make it pretty clear they’ve been around and seen it all, including the oil shock of the early 70’s. As such, when they speak we should listen. To this end, you can view clips of his extensive energy solutions on Squawk Box this morning. Some interesting tidbits:

  • Cars Per Thousand People (USA = 750; World = 120; China = 4)
  • Barrels Per Person Per Year (USA = 25; China = 2)
  • $US 700 Billion Is Heading Out Of The USA This Year To Pay For Oil

Wow. China clearly has years of increased oil consumption in front of it.

Regards,
George

US Housing Crisis Is Now Psychological

Posted by AGORACOM at 7:31 AM on Monday, July 7th, 2008

I’ve been unequivocal in my predictions that US housing is doomed …. and that we still have yet to see its worst days. Until now, the market/pundit/banker/speculator solution has been “drop interest rates”. Again, something I have labeled as an exercise in futility from the outset.

Now that we’ve arrived at 2% interest rates and real estate only continues to decline, the proof is in the pudding.

Moreover, things have gotten worse. Lower rates have:

  • Created a lower US Dollar that is >>>
  • Leading to sky rocketing oil prices that are >>>
  • Eating away at consumer wallets that is >>>
  • Leading to corporate layoffs that is >>>
  • Bringing the economy to a grinding halt that is >>>
  • MAKING THE REAL ESTATE CRISIS WORSE

Bottom Line: Where once only sub-prime borrowers were terrified of losing their homes, we now have everybody scared of falling home equity, losing their jobs and even losing their homes. “Scared” is the operative word. Scared is the reason why otherwise secure feeling consumers just a year ago will no longer stretch their resources to acquire depressed real estate – no matter how “cheap” interest rates get.

It is psychological now. Look for home inventories to climb and prices to fall quite dramatically over the next 12 months.

Regards,
George