Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 9:43 AM on Wednesday, January 15th, 2020
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Led by legendary financier, Sheldon Inwentash, ThreeD is a
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than just lip service, Inwentash has financed many of Canada’s biggest
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Storming the Gates: How ‘Crypto Davos’ Became a Thing
In recent years the WEF Meeting has come under fire as a place where wealthy elites gather to discuss solutions to problems they helped create and perpetuate – problems many blockchain startups are working to solve.
But the reality of Davos lies somewhere between these two extremes.
This is part of a series
of op-eds previewing the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
CoinDesk will be on the ground in Davos from Jan. 20–24 chronicling all
things crypto at the annual gathering of the world’s economic and
political elite. Follow along by subscribing to our pop-up newsletter, CoinDesk Confidential: Davos.
Sandra Ro is the CEO of the Global Blockchain Business Council (GBBC), which is organizing the four-day Blockchain Central Davos event.
The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF), renowned as a
place where business executives, government officials, entrepreneurs and
NGO leaders convene to create positive change, is days away.
In recent years the WEF Meeting
has come under fire as a place where wealthy elites gather to discuss
solutions to problems they helped create and perpetuate – problems many
blockchain startups are working to solve. But the reality of Davos lies
somewhere between these two extremes.
So why engage? Why do we keep going back?
WEF 2020
2020 is special: It’s the 50th anniversary of the WEF, a non-profit
foundation created in 1971 to engage society’s foremost political,
business and cultural leaders to shape global, regional and industry
agendas.
This year’s WEF theme is “Stakeholders for a Cohesive and Sustainable World.â€
Some of the broad questions to be asked: What does “stakeholder
capitalism†mean? Is it tracking progress towards the Paris Agreement
and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)? How does
technology fit in?
“With the world at such critical crossroads, this year we must
develop a ‘Davos Manifesto 2020’ to reimagine the purpose and scorecards
for companies and governments,†said Klaus Schwab, founder and
executive chairman of the WEF.
If the world is at a crossroads, what is the role of
cryptocurrencies, digital assets and blockchain? And who gets to shape
and influence this future?
In short, should “Crypto Davos†collaborate with the established elites?
Crypto Davos, four+ years in the making
Crypto pioneers set up shop with Davos side events four or five years
ago. These were modest gatherings to discuss the future of
cryptocurrencies. Very few elites knew what this was, or paid it much
attention.
Just as bitcoin and ethereum began as organic grassroots initiatives,
Crypto Davos grew mainly by group chats and word of mouth. However, by
2018, Crypto Davos reached peak excess, coinciding with the boom of
ICOs. This was followed by muted numbers in 2019 with the bust, and now,
in 2020, a mix of Crypto Davos stalwarts are returning alongside
mainstream corporations that are ahead of the curve in embracing
blockchain and, sometimes, cryptocurrency. (Unfortunately, the mantra of
“blockchain good, crypto bad†lingers in certain corporate and
government circles, though it is dissipating over time.)
What happens at WEF’s official gathering is important, but most who
have attended Davos previously know that “the Promenade†is a beehive of
activity around cryptocurrencies, blockchain, AI, cybersecurity and
other emerging technologies. Many crypto people who attend Davos never
step foot inside the main event and do not hold a coveted “white badge.â€
Instead, they hang out on the Promenade and participate in a myriad of
panels, networking events and meetings, mixed with late-night partying
and bonding.
The Promenade blockchain events are in high demand and considered
cutting edge, thereby attracting some high-profile leaders who might
seem out of place under normal, stodgier circumstances. Seeing rock
stars, actors, CEOs, billionaires, social-impact entrepreneurs and
developers together is not unusual at Crypto Davos.
Where else do you see both Jamie Dimon and Jamie Oliver walking down
the same block within meters of each other? Or Michael Douglas walking
into an MIT-hosted lunch on AI and blockchain? (Seriously, that happened
back in 2017.)
So why did a bunch of crypto people start coming to Davos in the
first place? Switzerland’s crypto-friendly environment partially
explains the attraction.
But the secret sauce of Davos is not just about discussing important ideas.
Once you make it to this normally sleepy town, you are jumbled
together with 30,000 influential people on a few blocks of a “main
street.†It makes for an intense and rewarding four days of networking
and deal-making, which sets the tone for the rest of the year.
Crossover appeal
Crypto Davos, despite its outsider status, has influenced and changed the course of mainstream Davos.
Just look at 2020’s big thematic on “stakeholders in a cohesive and
sustainable world,†which covers everything from economics to climate
change to technology, and includes topics like digital identity, digital
asset regulation and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
In 2020, many, if not most, corporations participating at Davos have
internal blockchain projects and/or are members of digital asset groups.
Five years ago, the CEOs of these same corporations probably did not
know blockchain existed.
Crypto Davos has profoundly influenced the interest and growth of
digital assets and blockchain technology among some of the most elite
institutions, governments and world leaders.
Not bad for a bunch of outsiders.
Selling out?
To the cynics and anti-establishment crowd, we debate every year why
we pay exorbitant rates to put together an event at Davos. The high
costs, occasionally not-so-subtle hostility from the mainstream,
increasingly strict town council rules and the general logistics
nightmare are enough to deter most.
However, we return, because our supporters love attending. Why?
Because we have met some of the most awe-inspiring people at Davos, from
rocket scientists to world leaders to humanitarians.
With a combination of bright, motivated people, ideas turn into
action here: from investments to business deals to project launches. No
matter how great the tech, we are humans who make connections by meeting
each other, spending time with each other and, ultimately,
collaborating with each other.
The key for Crypto Davos is to keep influencing and building bridges
with the establishment to yield the societal change we want. Blockchain
works best when it’s collaborative. The same holds true at Davos: Crypto
Davos can improve and scale with the resources of large institutions;
Establishment Davos can reimagine business models and government
services to create a more equitable and functional society.
This grand experiment works best if people collaborate across geographies and disciplines.
Long live Crypto Davos (at least until the next better version comes along).
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 10:54 AM on Tuesday, January 14th, 2020
SPONSOR:ThreeD Capital Inc. (IDK:CSE)
Led by legendary financier, Sheldon Inwentash, ThreeD is a
Canadian-based venture capital firm that only invests in best of breed
small-cap companies which are both defensible and mass scalable. More
than just lip service, Inwentash has financed many of Canada’s biggest
small-cap exits. Click Here For More Information.
Visa to acquire crypto-serving fintech unicorn Plaid for $5.3B
Payments giant Visa is set to acquire Plaid, a crypto-serving fintech unicorn, for $5.3 billion.
Announced Monday, Visa said the acquisition would help it enter into new businesses and enhance its existing card business
The deal is expected to close in the next 3-6 months, pending regulatory approvals.
Plaid helps users to connect their bank accounts to apps, such as
PayPal’s Venmo, to conveniently share their financial information. The
startup also serves crypto firms, including Coinbase and Abra wallet.
Visa would pay $4.9 billion in cash and around $400 million of retention equity and deferred equity, according to a presentation deck. The payments giant is paying a significant premium over Plaid’s valuation which recently hit over $2.5 billion.
“The combination of Visa and Plaid will put us at the epicenter of
the fintech world, expanding our total addressable market and
accelerating our long-term revenue growth trajectory,†said Al Kelly,
CEO and chairman of Visa.
The deal has the potential to help Visa add 80-100 basis points to its revenue growth by 2021, per the deck.
Both Visa and Mastercard invested an undisclosed sum in Plaid recently. Founded in 2012, the startup has raised over $350 million in venture capital funding to date.
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 10:45 AM on Monday, January 13th, 2020
SPONSOR:ThreeD Capital Inc. (IDK:CSE)
Led by legendary financier, Sheldon Inwentash, ThreeD is a
Canadian-based venture capital firm that only invests in best of breed
small-cap companies which are both defensible and mass scalable. More
than just lip service, Inwentash has financed many of Canada’s biggest
small-cap exits. Click Here For More Information.
This Chart Shows the Crypto Market Is On Verge of Bull Phase
Murad Mahmudov, CIO of Bitcoin fund Adaptive Capital, recently drew attention to a textbook chart that applies to any financial market — including crypto — which shows what trends in an asset’s volume, open interest, and price means for said asset’s future trajectory.
Over the past seven months, analysts have been wondering when the crypto market is going to revert back to a bull phase.
You see, when Bitcoin started rallying from $4,000 higher in
early-2019, analysts and investors thought this was the start of a new
bullish paradigm for the cryptocurrency market. But, they were sorely
mistaken when BTC fell by 50% from its peak and crypto assets like Ethereum and XRP actually posted losses on the year.
Per a simple tried-and-true chart depicting trends in markets, the
crypto market is likely on the verge of entering its next bull phase.
Here’s more on why.
Crypto Market About to Enter Bull Phase
Murad Mahmudov, CIO of Bitcoin fund Adaptive Capital, recently drew attention
to a textbook chart that applies to any financial market — including
crypto — which shows what trends in an asset’s volume, open interest,
and price means for said asset’s future trajectory.
The chart shows that the most optimistic scenario for any market is
if the asset’s price, volume, and open interest for its futures market
rise in tandem, suggesting “strength,†“bullish†price action, and an
overall trend of prices rising.
And what do you know! Bitcoin, over the past few weeks, has seen its
price, volume, and open interest increase all at once, showing
effectively no signs of weakness. This suggests the crypto market is on
the verge of entering into a serious uptrend for the first time in
months.
Related Reading: Key Bitcoin Sell Signal Flashes: Here’s Why Analysts Aren’t Concerned
Notably, there is a bull case for Bitcoin rapidly building. For
instance, the Lucid Stop and Reversal indicator, which “signals a stop
and an entry in the opposite direction†when it reverses, just printed
an extremely bullish signal. The indicator shows that Bitcoin just saw its first buy signal since March 2019, with the trend as defined by the SAR turning bullish.
On the fundamental side of things, Bitcoin is now four or so months out from its next block reward reduction, known as a “halvingâ€
or “halvening.†Prominent investors, including former Goldman Sachs
employees, have suggested that this event will affect BTC’s
supply-demand dynamics in a way that will push prices dramatically
higher.
With Bitcoin leading the rest of the crypto market, any strong
increases in the price of BTC should lead to similar price action for
altcoins. Of course, there is a growing expectation that altcoins will underperform the market leader, but a strong uptrend in BTC shouldn’t do anything but help the rest of the crypto market higher.
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 9:30 PM on Sunday, January 12th, 2020
SPONSOR:ThreeD Capital Inc. (IDK:CSE)
Led by legendary financier, Sheldon Inwentash, ThreeD is a
Canadian-based venture capital firm that only invests in best of breed
small-cap companies which are both defensible and mass scalable. More
than just lip service, Inwentash has financed many of Canada’s biggest
small-cap exits. Click Here For More Information.
The race to integrate crypto into global banking is real
Public sector projects are driving greater interest to adopt fiat-backed cryptocurrencies by central and regional banks.
Metamorworks / Getty Images
Central banks in Asia and Europe are in the final stages of launching digital currencies for future payment systems and cross-border transactions, according to a new report from accounting firm KPMG.
And governments around the world see the launch of these blockchain-based central bank digital currencies (CBDC) as something that could one day give them a competitive advantage in global trade.
“In 2020, we at KPMG expect to assist regional and central banks in
the development of well-defined technology frameworks that can anchor
private-sector initiatives,†Arun Ghosh, U.S. Blockchain Leader at KPMG,
said in a blog post.
Among other banking entitires, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has shown support
for fiat-backed cryptocurrencies, saying they can reduce the reliance
on government-issued money, “and unlike bank transfers, crypto asset
transactions can be cleared and settled quickly without an
intermediary,†Dong He, deputy director of the IMF’s Monetary and
Capital Markets Department, wrote in a post for the IMF.
“The advantages are especially apparent in cross-border payments,
which are costly, cumbersome, and opaque,” He said. “New services using
distributed ledger technology and crypto assets have slashed the time it
takes for cross-border payments to reach their destination from days to
seconds by bypassing correspondent banking networks.â€
In a blog post, the IMF said today’s fiat currencies are in flux “and innovation will transform the landscape of banking and money.â€
Other countries are already looking to innovate in ways that given them an advantage.
China is reportedly close to releasing a national cryptocurrency
that, because of greater efficiencies, could challenge the U.S. dollar
as the de facto currency for international trade. Other smaller
countries such as Sweden are planning their own state-sponsored
cryptocurrency. (Sweden’s would be called the e-Krona.)
And the Bank of England has been researching cryptocurrency since 2015. Even though theit does not currently plan to issue a cryptocurrency linked to Pound sterling, it has published extensive research on the monetary policy and financial system implications of issuing CDBCs.
“If a central bank issued a digital currency, then everyone
(including businesses, households and financial institutions other than
banks) could store value and make payments in electronic central bank
money,†the Bank of England said in a research paper. “While this may
seem like a small change, it could have wide-ranging implications for
monetary policy and financial stability.â€
Regardless of any movement by central banks, Ghosh said, fiat-based ‘stablecoins’
are already being issued by the private sector to support enhanced
value exchange and settlement within organizations and across banking
networks.
For example, JP Morgan Chase announced last year
it had developed what was seen at the time as the first cryptocurrency
backed by a major bank – a move that could legitimize blockchain as a
vehicle for fiat cryptocurrencies. JPM Coin, as the bank calls its new
digital money, is considered fiat currency because it’s backed by U.S.
dollars in accounts designated at JPMorgan Chase N.A.
Each JPM Coin is equal in value to one U.S. dollar.
Wells Fargo has also announced
it will pilot its own cryptocurrency to enable near real-time money
movement and cut out settlement middlemen, thus reducing fees.
And the Reserve Bank of Australia has conducted pilots
with Ethereum-based cryptocurrency in the hope it could be used by
third parties for cross-border payments. So far, the bank has not found a
significant case for its use in light of Australia’s relatively stable
banking system, according to a Senate inquiry into the matter last month.
“The upside for businesses and consumers will trickle down through
adoption…, Ghosh said, nothing that the new systems could result in
“near instantaneous value settlement” with “enhanced cash flow
realization and/or liquidity of certain positions.”
Blockchain is being piloted by financial services institutions in
five primary areas: for clearance and settlement, trade finance,
cross-border payments, insurance claims processing and anti-money
laundering (AML) and know your customer (KYC) efforts.
For cross-border transactions, stablecoin could cut settlement times
from days to minutes by eliminating the need for private organizations
such as Depository Trust and Clearance Corp. (DTCC) in the U.S. and Euroclear in the European Union. The DTCC and Euroclear now handle securities settlements.
Blockchain-based systems could also streamline the process of buying
and selling stocks and bonds. Those transactions can take up to three
days, with longer delays of up to 10 days not uncommon, according to Bruce Fenton, founder and managing director of Atlantic Financial and a board member of the Bitcoin Foundation.
“The challenge with securities now is you need a trusted third party
to say what’s true,” Fenton said. “It’s not your broker. It’s not
Merrill Lynch or Fidelity and it’s not the issuer either; Apple has no
clue who their shareholders are, either. The function is performed by
these large centralized groups because the brokers don’t necessarily
trust each other; they’re dealing with their competitors.”
The problem with relying on central settlement organizations is that
transactions can get bottlenecked through the use of a single ledger,
such as VisaNet or SWIFT,
he said. With blockchain, trust becomes moot since digital tokens
representing securities or money are inextricably linked to the funds or
securities – and transfers can be done in hours, Fenton said.
Given those efficiencies, more than a half dozen universities are already working on developing a payment system to rival today’s conventional clearance and settlement networks.
In addition to the scaled adoption of cryptoassets now being driven
by the public sector, Ghosh sees four other crypto trends likely to
emerge over the next year or so as business executives apply “an
unprecedented level of innovation … driving new revenue models by
leveraging blockchain and tokenized assets.â€
Those trends include:
Advances in cryptoasset custody technology, or how digital assets
are owned, stored, secured, transferred and accessed in a decentralized
environment.
A shift from private-permissioned to interoperable blockchain
implementations. With many private blockchain implementations coming to
fruition, the next step is interoperability.
More success when scaling the technology with a converged artificial
intelligence (AI) framework – and better results when initializing
their AI investments.
The convergence of AI, blockchain and the Internet of Things (IoT) to help manage climate change.
About that last prediction, Ghosh said: “Decentralized, transparent
data models enabled by blockchain, which houses data transferred via IoT
that is measurable using advanced analytic techniques, can be visible
to a vast number of countries and regulators that are jointly monitoring
and reporting on carbon emissions, rising sea levels and the
remediation of toxic waste, among other applications.
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 10:00 AM on Friday, January 10th, 2020
SPONSOR:ThreeD Capital Inc. (IDK:CSE)
Led by legendary financier, Sheldon Inwentash, ThreeD is a
Canadian-based venture capital firm that only invests in best of breed
small-cap companies which are both defensible and mass scalable. More
than just lip service, Inwentash has financed many of Canada’s biggest
small-cap exits. Click Here For More Information.
20 Blockchain Predictions for 2020
Blockchain is entering a pivotal year in 2020, a period that will decide not just the future of cryptocurrency, but blockchain and the very idea of decentralization.
As a Managing Partner at Digital Asset Risk Management Advisors
(DARMA Capital), and former Head of Global Business Development at
blockchain software powerhouse ConsenSys, I’ve had an inside look at the
rapid development of blockchain technology, the extreme volatility of
crypto markets, and the emerging ecosystem and culture of
decentralization. And let me tell you: Blockchain is entering a pivotal
year in 2020, a period that will decide not just the future of
cryptocurrency, but blockchain and the very idea of decentralization.
Buckle up, because it’s going to be quite the ride. Here are 20 predictions for blockchain in 2020.
1. Ethereum right now is like dial-up internet in 1996—14.4kbps. Soon it will be the equivalent of broadband.
Remember the days of dial-up internet? Let me take you back to 1996:
although AOL was quickly becoming a household name, getting online for
most required swapping tangled wired connections and clogging up phone
lines to access a limited range of products at a snail’s pace. With a
14.4kpbs connection, intrepid retail consumers could browse the world
wide web while transferring data at 1.8kbs per second. To download a
megabyte of data took over 9 minutes. All of the content was text-based
and bare bones, but it worked! Casual observers could see that this
technology would be useful, but few predicted the wholesale societal and
economic transformation the internet would bring to the world within a
matter of years.
Sound familiar? It’s directly analogous to where we’re currently at
with blockchain. 2020 in blockchain years is the equivalent of 1996 in
the internet era. Much like the internet, blockchain progress will kick
into overdrive with Moore’s Law, and Ethereum 2.0 will be the big red
button that launches us off of dial up and into broadband. (Disclosure:
I’ve owned Ethereum for several years.) The signs are all there. Almost
every sector and leading enterprise is looking into blockchain
implementation, governments are terrified of being left behind and are
scrambling to catch up, while the infrastructural elements are now in
place for developers to build, deploy, and scale products. In 2020 we
will begin to see what a decentralized future actually looks like.
2. Bitcoin and blockchain will finally break up
Bitcoin should be revered as the patriarch of digital assets. Bitcoin
confluenced cryptography, peer-to-peer networking, a virtual machine,
and a consensus formation algorithm to solve “the double spend†and “the
Byzantine general’s problem†elegantly. That said, time moves on. The
Bitcoin maximalists that believe Bitcoin is where this decentralizing
technology might be are in for a rude awakening.
As blockchain reaches a scaling watershed, there’s one key
differentiation that the world will come to acknowledge, one that
enthusiasts are likely already very familiar with—the difference between
Bitcoin, Ethereum and other decentralizing technologies. Bitcoin’s
ascension to digital gold has been astounding, and has signaled the
beginning of a whole new techno-economic era. But digital gold is just
that—a beginning.
The current market capitalization of gold is $8 trillion dollars.
That’s an eye-popping number, sure, but it represents a potential
ceiling market opportunity for Bitcoin’s “digital gold.†Smart
contract-enabled blockchains like Ethereum will digitize the global
economy and unlock value in the whole spectrum of assets and processes.
In turn, decentralized networks will reach into the farthest corners of
every industry on the planet (and beyond). We will be able to digitally
represent fiat, gold, software licenses, equity, debt, derivatives,
loyalty points, reputation ratings, and much much more that we can’t
even conceive of yet. That’s a market opportunity estimated at well over
$80 trillion dollars. Bitcoin is a singular use case. Comparatively,
Ethereum has infinite use cases.
3. The potential for global economic recession looms, fiat currencies be warned!
Economic uncertainty has been looming over the globe for years. It’s not so much a matter of if, but when the
house of cards tumbles with major worldwide implications. Europe will
likely be the first to hit recession. One look at the five biggest
economies in the region and it’s clear. Germany’s Deutschebank is on
life support. The United Kingdom has been eating itself with Brexit for
years. France is in a state of constant protest. The Spanish and Italian
economies are drowning. The European Union is by now only nominally a
union, and growing divisions will leave many nations especially
vulnerable.
With respect to the USA, let me paint two realities for you: In 2020,
China and the U.S. finally reach a real trade deal. The economy gets a
tailwind into 2021 and Donald Trump is re-elected. There’s another leg
to this stock market blow-off phase. The house of cards lives another
day. If there is no trade deal or no re-election and the global economy
is further challenged, the bottom could fall out of Quantitative Easing
Mania, and the value of many national currencies around the world will
be challenged like never before. The value of fiat currencies could
endure a precipitous drop in value via extreme inflation.
Digital assets have exiguous properties similar to gold and oil in
that they are provenly scarce. If and when this crisis lands, the
digital asset class will be the hedge to traditional central banking
systems that resort to printing—and thus depreciating—currencies in
times of crisis.
4. The U.S. will have to play catch-up after China’s big play in crypto and blockchain
In January 2020, a new suite of regulation will come into effect that
represents a sharp about turn by the Chinese government towards a
pro-blockchain and cryptocurrency stance. With new legislation towards
mining, state news channels praising Bitcoin, and Chinese President Xi
Jinping announced governmental support for blockchain technology in
October, it’s clear that China is making its move. China’s central bank
will soon test its own digital currency in the cities of Shenzhen and
Suzhou with four state-owned commercial banks. Countries like the United
States that may have been sluggish to take a leading role in supporting
blockchain development will be left with little choice but to play
catch-up, and the result will be a huge net positive for the industry.
5. We march onwards to Ethereum 2.0
The long-awaited Istanbul hard fork—the final hard fork of Ethereum
1.0—has successfully deployed. The Muir Glacier difficulty bomb delay
update was the cherry on top. Vitalik Buterin has already released a
block explorer for the Proof of Stake Beacon Chain, and the march
towards Ethereum 2.0 is proceeding at a rapid clip. Proof of Stake
Ethereum exists. It’s alive! The roadmap to Serenity
is in full effect. 2020 will see Ethereum move stridently beyond Phase 0
of Ethereum 2.0, onto Phase 1 and the launch of shard chains. Then,
it’s game on.
Ethereum developers have already proven their ability to work
wonders, and that this decentralized team is now in the stride of
hitting ambitious roadmap targets is the best indicator in all of
blockchain for future success. To daily observers, this upgrading
process may seem long and winding, but the extra time it takes to
develop the network properly will benefit the entirety of humanity.
While Web2 was defined by philosophies like ‘Move Fast, Break Things,’
Web3 should be guided by mantras like ‘Do it the Right Way This Time.’
6. Layer two scaling solutions will turbocharge Ethereum
Ogres, like onions—and like blockchain networks—are all about layers.
With the rollout of the Istanbul hard fork, Ethereum is on its way
towards 2.0 levels of scalability at layer one. Joe Lubin stated last
year at SXSW that Ethereum will process millions of
transactions a second. How it achieves this is a combination of steady
upgrades to the layer one network and integration of layer two scaling
implementations.
Poon and Buterik’s solution of Plasma’s “blockchains on blockchainsâ€
was not just brilliant and prescient, it was the inception of a whole
sector of Layer Two development. Sharded chains may occupy much of the
debate at the moment, but state channels being developed by Celer,
Connext, and Counterfactual will be the massive mycelial data network
underground that unleashes the main chain to operate unencumbered by
state weight. Sidechains will transact the bulk of lower-risk
transactions rapidly. Payment channels like Raiden will enable
instantaneous token transfers, while ZK-Snarks will keep all of your
data private amidst all the transactional action. The stack is all
there, and 2020 will see 2.0 come to life.
In the meantime, innovations like Plasma’s Optimistic Virtual Rollup
means that projects don’t have to wait for the transactional throughput
they need to flourish. That’s huge. There was a time when blockchain
scaling was driven by theory and hope. No longer! The incredible,
global, decentralized dev teams working on Ethereum will change the
world with this technology, and we are all eternally grateful.
7. Layers of the Web3.0 stack go live
A decentralized environment is about more than just shards and nodes,
and we’ll see that manifest in in 2020. Web3.0 will be defined by mesh
networks connecting smart contracts, file storage, messaging, payment
channels, side chains, oracles—the list goes on. 2020 will see many
essential infrastructural elements of Web3.0 go live.
What is Web3.0? Here’s a quick breakdown:
The digitization of all assets: Stocks, bonds, fiat
currencies, electrons, loyalty points, software licenses, Beyonce
concert tickets, insurance policies, derivatives and other assets
previously inconceivable, will become natively digital.
The automation of agreements: Microsoft Word legal
documents will turn into digitalIf > Then > Else lines of computer
code that will move the aforementioned digital assets trustlessly,
creating completely new business models like an employment agreement
that gets paid by the minute, a piece of art that can pay a royalty to
an artist every time it is sold from one owner to the next, a piece of
real estate that can pay its investors automatically every time rent
comes in, the ability to divide income amongst band members every time a
song is played, or routing an electron efficiently to various parts of a
micro-grid.
Self-Sovereign Identity: Instead of logging into
Airbnb, Facebook, Uber, et al, you will log into your own self-sovereign
browser, and will have the same ability to rent a hotel room, use
social media or hail a car, but instead of the legacy application
providers the same service will occur peer-to-peer, rather than through a
thin layer of rent-seeking intermediation. You’ll get paid $1 dollar a
day to look at advertising when on social media instead of Zuckerberg
and your ride and home shares will be 2/3rd of the current cost.
Some examples: The Interplanetary File System has already showed the
nature of data file storage on the decentralized web. Protocol Labs’
Filecoin builds on IPFS to rent users’ hard drive space for crypto. The
platform is on schedule to launch in March, with the testnet just launched very recently.
Helium is a mesh network where stakeholders purchase nodes under $500
to provide low bandwidth for Internet of Things devices. Tom
Shaughnessy of Delphi Digital recently noted, “Since going live on
August 1, 2019, over 2,130 nodes are live on the network covering 90% of
U.S. states across 425+ cities. At Verizon’s IoT costs (600KB/year for
$12), Helium is underpricing Verizon by 99.9988% ($0.00001 for 24 bytes
or 0.024 KB). This type of price consolidation we should expect from the
next generation of cell phone service providers, data storers, and
truly any intermediary via a decentralized world wide web.
Kyle Samani, and the team at Multicoin Capital have done a great job
of mapping a potential Web3.0 software stack with examples of companies
attempting to provide solutions. Although it remains the very early days
and we’ll see tremendous competition for a hegemonic position for all
layers of the Web3.0 stack, the Web3.0 stack will likely look a little
something like this:
Credit: Multicoin Capital
8. Expect a radically altered blockchain landscape by 2021
By the turn of 2021, we will have a much clearer picture of whether
newfangled layer one blockchain networks like Near, Polkadot, Dfinity,
and Nervos will be able to contribute substantially to the blockchain
ecosystem. Competition is good and I remind everyone that the goal is
global disintermediation, decentralization, and the commoditization of
trust, rather than a brand of protocol winning. That said, this sprint
to layer one supremacy has only spurred on the development of Ethereum
2.0, and the many competing elements are experimenting with new ways to
develop the best blockchain product. The answer to who will succeed lies
with developers and users.
Ethereum still retains the most robust developer engagement by far.
Some view this race as a winner-takes-all, but with so much to be gained
from developing this new technology, coopetition will raise the tide
for all. There could also be fit-for-purpose blockchains, that satisfy
particular niches. New competitors to the layer 1 space will have to
deal with Matteo Leibovitz’s “distribution quadrilemma,†which states
criteria that new networks must simultaneously satisfy at launch to
engender monetary premium. They are:
wide/equitable distribution
revenue generation
potential for upside
regulatorily compliant
The biggest challenge is requirement #4. If a VC or multiple whales
own a large amount of a network’s tokens—a ubiquitous occurrence with
layer one “Ethereum Killers†— it will be incredibly difficult to sway
the SEC that the token isn’t a security, which means all those big
investments and will disrupt nothing but VC piggy banks.
9. The tribulations of Libra will continue…
Facebook’s Libra will not go live in 2020 in any form of scale. The
“decentralized wolf in sheep’s clothing†has already done much to bring
blockchain to the forefront of global discourse—for better, and at
times, for worse. But the company is learning fast that consensus and
deployment do not always adhere to the best laid plans of even
billionaires. When it does go live, Libra will undoubtedly be a force of
education and adoption for billions of people. Farmville with crypto? I
can’t wait! Before it gets to that point, however, expect Chinese
organizations like WeChat, Alipay, and Alibaba to aggressively pursue
first mover status in the space given the recently relaxed regime in the
country. Trust in Facebook stagnates still as we enter another election
year in the US. If social media has proven so earth-shakingly
problematic, we can only guess what ills Facebook’s version of ‘social
banking’ may hold within.
10. Trillion dollar companies signal the climax and end of the 3rd industrial revolution
Apple. Microsoft. PetroChina. Saudi Aramco. When the next behemoth
rises over a trillion dollar valuation—it will stay there. That same
company probably won’t pay a single dollar in U.S. taxes. This is a
prime example of vast inequality in the value capture of our economic
systems, and it’s only getting worse. Legacy Web2.0 companies are making
billions for the shareholder capital class by using the individual as
the product. They’re spilling personal data into the clutches of
nefarious actors with alarming regularity. As more and more companies
pass the trillion dollar mark, it will signal the blow-off phase of late
capitalism. After the inevitable crash, we’ll be faced with a
once-in-an-epoch opportunity for more equitable, democratized, and
sustainable business models to proliferate. Will you be ready?
11. Self Sovereignty on the web will become a human right
With hacks and breaches in both Web2.0 and Web3.0 environments a
daily occurrence, it’s clear that change is a necessity. Projects like
the Decentralized Identity Foundation have taken major strides in
establishing open source standards that will furnish the whole
blockchain ecosystem with digital identity components that are
trustworthy and decentralized. Blockchain IDs and zero-trust datastores
like those created by uPort and 3box will rapidly replace the creaky
walled databases we rely on now. Establishing this web of trust may be
amongst the most important pieces of the blockchain puzzle in 2020.
Web2.0 stalwarts like IBM and Microsoft are well aware of the urgency
of the issue, and they’ve allocated substantial resources to iterating
digital identity in their own image. But self-sovereignty must be just
that—owned by our selves—before the internet can be truly democratized.
Ownership and privacy of data will soon be seen as a human right, and
self sovereignty is the solution to attaining it.
12. Say it with me…CME Ether futures
After Bitcoin futures options in January, I have a feeling that it’ll
be Ethereum’s turn. CME Ether Futures will be announced in 2020 and
will go live in 2020. The CME has an almost 125 year history of
innovation in financial instruments, birthing both new asset classes and
digitizing the process of exchange along the way. With Bitcoin and
Ethereum, the CME will continue this tradition of innovation, in turn
catalyzing legitimacy for digital assets and opening access doors for
mainstream investors and institutions to kickstart the next round of
market growth for digital assets. Futures & options create forward
demand curves that are a necessary precursor to a regulated ETF market.
Our once child-like asset class is growing up.
13. A billion dollar DeFi ecosystem is a matter of months away
Decentralized Finance will continue to lead the industry in the first
quarter of 2020. Over $600 million dollars are currently locked up in
decentralized finance platforms. That number will cross one billion
before summer. Organizations like a16z have bet big on platforms MKR and
Compound, while projects like Synthetix, Uniswap, dYdX, and InstaDapp
are furnishing a feverishly active sector of the blockchain ecosystem,
one that isn’t immediately contingent upon scaling timelines. That said,
DeFi organizations will probably have to spend some big legal dollars
in compliance and lobbying. Just one example: in all 50 states, a
company needs a specific license to lend to retail clients. When DeFi
inevitably gets too big to ignore, regulators will roll out the red tape
carpet.
14. The sleeping giant of blockchain awakens — supply chain
Counterfeit goods represent a market of over $1.8 billion dollars
annually, with some estimates seeing that number rising over 10% as
production and online distribution methods improve. Household names like
Louis Vuitton and Levi’s have been quietly perfecting proof of concept
trials with leading blockchain companies to ensure provenance and
protect consumers on a global scale. Treum has already shown the value
of blockchain-ensured supply chain processes on items ranging from salsa
to tuna to skincare products. Now, major box retailers like Walmart and
international food corporations Nestle and Dole are diving in head
first. A recent report stated that companies in Western Europe alone are
set to save $450 billion dollars in the next fifteen years with
blockchain based supply chain solutions, with operating costs reduced
almost 1% across the board. That’s a whole lotta tuna!
15. Art and music will take a lead in consumer-interfacing blockchain applications
Blockchain’s impact on art, music, and the creative space will be
profound. In a 2014 report, The Fine Arts Expert Institute (FAEI) in
Geneva stated that over 50% of artworks it had examined were either
forged or not attributed to the correct artist. Blockchain can fix this
now, and I’ve experienced it myself. This year, I purchased a work of
art titled “The Human Way†by Vladimir Kush. The payment, certificate of
authenticity, and ownership history were irrevocably recorded on the
Ethereum blockchain with Treum. By this time next year, this process
will be far more commonplace. And it’s not just provenance that makes
the arts a prime field for blockchain implementation. Tokenized
ownership and the establishment of equitable business models not
beholden to gatekeepers have the attention of the art world already.
Watch this space.
16. Proof of Work is dying while killing Earth. Long live Proof of Stake.
Retro gaming may be in vogue, but by the end of 2020, Proof of Work
will be considered the Atari while we’re all getting used to the
controls on the Proof of Stake Playstation. Vitalik Buterin and Ethereum
were early adopters of the concept of Proof of Stake, and now there’s a
whole industry of projects utilizing stake-based validators to uphold
blockchain networks. The reason why is clear: Not only does it unlock
the scalability trilemma in terms of speed and security, it is far less
taxing on the Earth—y’know, the thing we’re trying to change with this
whole decentralization movement anyway. Proof of Work is inherently
wasteful, and what’s the point of revolutionizing economic systems if it
means contributing to the destruction of the environment? It’s time to
move forward.
17. Regulators gonna regulate
While the expectations of the blockchain and larger tech world may
move fast, regulators and governments were built to move slowly. Digital
assets have now moved out of a phase of distrust by legislative and
regulatory institutions, and policy at both the agency and legislative
level is aligning to unshackle the technology and streamline regulation.
The most recent guidance from the IRS in October suggests that the US
government acknowledges that virtual currencies will play a big part in
the economy to come. Further, it is well known that the CFTC does not
see Ether as a security. Wyoming’s leadership in this regard—with a
total of 13 pro-blockchain laws—is behooving other states to catch up.
And if there’s one thing that will provide an impetus for the federal
government to move forward on the issue, it’s not being left behind by
China. 2020 will see positive guidance on blockchain introduced at the
state, national, and international level.
18. The unbanked remain unbanked — For now
Decentralized Finance is a remarkable phenomenon with major
implications for both blockchain and global economies, but for the time
being it will continue to fall short of the oft-repeated mantra and goal
of ‘banking the unbanked’ via providing access to financial services to
billions of people around the world who need it most. Why? As it
stands, the lending community is insular, and issues around ‘reputation’
mean that those who need it most can’t access it. These will surely be
ironed out over time, but for the duration of 2020, Decentralized
Finance will continue to steadily grow in an enlarging, but closed
circle. And that’s not a bad thing. Look at it this way: The sector is
already approaching the billion dollar mark, and we’re still effectively
in beta mode.
19. User Experience Will Have To Be Better Than Web2.0
Apple’s iPhone is the best selling phone ever because it’s simple and
it works. That’s all the consumer needs to know. While many of us tech
nerds get our jollies tinkering around the various layers of the Web3.0
stack, everything will need to be abstracted away for the
typical Web3.0 user experience to appeal to the general populous. That’s
why masterfully artistic UI/UX designers are as important to this
industry right now as low layer distributed systems computer scientists.
But UX/UI isn’t just about clean lines and minimal design. From
standards to libraries, toolkits, scaling solutions, onboarding, custody
and wallet integration, there’s so much that has to be optimized
beneath the screen to present that level of functional simplicity. Rimble
is an example of an open-source library for creating improved user
experiences for Web3.0 decentralized applications. Expect this to be a
prime sector for development in 2020. While the first wave of
decentralized consumer apps put blockchain front and center, the next
will be led by projects that are more subtle and nuanced in the method
of blockchain integration.
The bubble and burst of cryptocurrency in 2017 was like an excessive
frat house rager that led to a helluva hangover in 2018 and 2019. There
are two types of bubbles, though. Some — like the housing crash of 2008 —
leave behind debt encumbrances and waste, while others — like the
dot.com bubble — establish foundational infrastructure and crystallize
key organizations which go on to become a backbone of the industry. The
crypto bubble is akin to the latter, and will lead to the real
blockchain boom, one driven by utility, not speculation.
In the wake of crypto markets’ irrational exuberance in 2017 and
equally irrational despondency in 2018, the core blockchain community of
developers and technologists got to work, heads down, and focused on
building infrastructure. Their labor is now bearing fruit. We’re at the
crossroads of the next industrial revolution, and it begins in 2020.
This progress towards global decentralization and automation will lead
to the most prosperous society we’ve ever had.
Here’s to the roaring 20’s!
Andrew Keys is a managing partner of Digital Asset Risk Management Advisors (DARMA Capital), a digital asset investment fund. Previously, Andrew was head of global business development of ConsenSys,
the largest software engineering firm in the world solely focused on
creating blockchain solutions to build the future of the Internet. Jemayel Khawaja,
Editorial Director at ConsenSys, aided in the research and writing of
these predictions. This article is not intended as investment advice or
solicitation. These are Andrew’s personal views and not that of DARMA
Capital or ConsenSys.
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 10:10 AM on Wednesday, January 8th, 2020
SPONSOR:ThreeD Capital Inc. (IDK:CSE)
Led by legendary financier, Sheldon Inwentash, ThreeD is a
Canadian-based venture capital firm that only invests in best of breed
small-cap companies which are both defensible and mass scalable. More
than just lip service, Inwentash has financed many of Canada’s biggest
small-cap exits. Click Here For More Information.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin is ready for a massive bull’s run
Here’s what you need to know on Wednesday
Markets:
The BTC/USD is currently trading at $8,347 (+5.8% on a day-to-day
basis). The coin has been moving within a strong bullish trend and hit a
new 2020 high at $8,464.
The ETH/USD pair is currently trading at $144.7 (+1.18% on a
day-to-day basis). The Ethereum retreated from the intraday high of
$147.96; now, it is moving within a short-term bullish trend amid low
volatility.
XRP/USD settled at $0.2145 after a spike to $0.2255 on Tuesday. The coin is down 1.15% in recent 24 hours.
Among the 100 most important cryptocurrencies, the best of the day
are Quant (QNT) $3.9 (+17.5%), Synthetix Network Token (SNX) $0.9973
(+13.57%) and Horizen (ZEN) $8.43 (+13.16%), The day’s losers are,
Decentraland (MANA) $0.0335 (-8.5%), MaidSafeCoin (MAID) $0.0810
(-7.42%) and Komodo (KMD) $0.5434 (-5.92%).
Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to as high as $8,464 amid the escalation of
geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While the correlation is not
clear, many experts believe that Bitcoin is growing due to rising
conflict between the United States and Iran as a push towards the recent
high occurred amid the news that Iran had attacked US military bases in
Iraq.
Tether (USDT) market capitalization increased by $500 million on
CoinMarketCap due to the rating adjustments; however, some experts
believe that this development might have served as a buy signal for algo
bots and set Bitcoin’s bullish ball rolling. BTC/USD started
snowballing in a few hours after CoinMarketCap updated its Tether
capitalization.
Cryptocurrencies may be an exciting concept, but they won’t threaten
the dominant position of the US dollar, according to International
Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist, Gita Gopinath. She believes that
the technologies have not reduced the costs of moving between the
currencies, which is the critical barrier on the way to overtaking USD.
Industry:
Istanbul update implemented on Etheereum network at the end of 2019
increased the scalability of StarkEx protocol for centralized exchanges,
StarkWare experts noted.
“StarkEx *measurements* (not approximations, nor estimates) break
Ethereum’s scalability record post-Istanbul, with a 2000X improvement
over Ethereum Layer-1: 9K trades/sec at 75 gas/trade (or 18K
payments/sec) (1/5)”
Binance Charity Foundation launched a program aiming to help
Australia mitigate the consequences of bushfire. The blockchain-based
charity platform created by one of the world’s leading cryptocurrency
exchanges invites everyone to participate in the program and donate
funds to support Australia. Binance intends to donate $1 million.
Berlin-based bitcoin bank Bitwala included ether (ETH) to the list
of available services. The bank allows customers buying ETH, the
second-largest cryptocurrency asset by market capitalization, right from
their current accounts. The company explained the decision by
Ethereum’s significant role in decentralized finance (DeFi) movement,
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 10:47 AM on Tuesday, January 7th, 2020
SPONSOR:ThreeD Capital Inc. (IDK:CSE)
Led by legendary financier, Sheldon Inwentash, ThreeD is a
Canadian-based venture capital firm that only invests in best of breed
small-cap companies which are both defensible and mass scalable. More
than just lip service, Inwentash has financed many of Canada’s biggest
small-cap exits. Click Here For More Information.
Bitcoin 2020: The Bottom is In and Prices are About to Surge, Several Analysts Claim
Bitcoin corrected by over 50% from the 2019 high of $13,880.
With the retracement in the last six months, some analysts believe that the bottom is in.
The number one crypto is flashing accumulation signals convincing
popular traders that the cryptocurrency has turned bullish in 2020.
Bitcoin may have started 2019 strong but ever since it posted a high
of $13,880 in June, the top cryptocurrency has been correcting. It
dropped to as low as $6,425 in December. At that point, bearish calls
for a revisit to $5,000 levels were strong.
One analyst expecting bitcoin to drop to $5,000. | Source: Twitter
Those who have been waiting to buy below $6,000 have been left out.
The digital gold is now trading above $7,000 and analysts are expecting
bitcoin to leave this price area soon. Many see a base being formed,
which can propel the number one cryptocurrency to greater heights early
this year.
Analysts Claim Bitcoin Has Bottomed Out
After a weak second half of 2019, it appears that the worst is behind
for the most dominant cryptocurrency. A number of widely-followed
analysts on Twitter say that bitcoin is carving a bottom.
For instance, Faisal Sohail believes that the cryptocurrency has
already tapped the bottom when it dropped to $6,475 in December. He
believes that the digital asset will trade between $7,000 and $12,000
before the halving.
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Bitcoin to start climbing before the May 2020 halving. | Source: Twitter
User Bitcoin Macro supports Faisal’s view. In an emphatic tweet,
Bitcoin Macro exclaims that the bottom is already in. He also tells his
followers not to get shaken out.
Majin, Crypto Twitter’s biggest bull, has also turned bullish after
months of uncertainty. The liquidity game theorist believes bitcoin will
take off and leave $7,000 behind.
Accumulation Pattern to Send Bitcoin Above $11,600
BTC has been range trading between $6,700 and $7,600 since November
20, 2019. That’s a $900 range over 45 days. To many analysts, this is a
sign that a new base is being built to prepare bitcoin for the next leg
up, hence, the call for a bottom.
Charles Edwards, head of digital investment firm Capriole, sees a
potential accumulation pattern forming. More importantly, he believes
that the bottom is already in. According to Edwards, his bias would be
confirmed once bitcoin trades above $8,000.
Charles Edwards sees a Wyckoff accumulation pattern developing in bitcoin. | Source: Twitter
Edwards is not alone in seeing a pattern indicating that whales and
other smart money investors are accumulating the largest cryptocurrency.
Trader CryptoWolf also sees an accumulation pattern
developing. His bias will be confirmed once the price goes above
$8,090. A move above that level would also trigger the breakout from a
large falling wedge.
CryptoWolf’s initial target is $9,550 and then $11,600.
Bitcoin needs to take out $8,090 to gain bullish momentum. | Source: Twitter
Traders Starting to Have a Rosy Outlook
With these signals, other traders are expressing their optimism on
the prospects of the top cryptocurrency. The popular trader The Crypto
Dog tweeted that he’s bullish on bitcoin.
It is not everyday that The Crypto Dog posts bullish tweets on bitcoin | Source: Twitter
The widely-followed Crypto Rand shares The Crypto Dog’s upbeat outlook on the dominant cryptocurrency.
The Crypto Rand is also bullish on bitcoin | Source: Twitter
Is it a coincidence that the top analysts are tweeting bullish
statements on bitcoin as the top cryptocurrency prints an accumulation
pattern? Probably not. It’s very likely that these analysts are also
seeing the bottom or base-building signals on the number one coin. If
they’re right, then strap in. Bitcoin’s 2020 price action might start off with fireworks.
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 10:34 AM on Monday, January 6th, 2020
SPONSOR:ThreeD Capital Inc. (IDK:CSE)
Led by legendary financier, Sheldon Inwentash, ThreeD is a
Canadian-based venture capital firm that only invests in best of breed
small-cap companies which are both defensible and mass scalable. More
than just lip service, Inwentash has financed many of Canada’s biggest
small-cap exits. Click Here For More Information.
Hundreds of Institutions Are Already Investing in Crypto: Coinbase CEO
According to the CEO of one of the biggest cryptocurrency exchanges
globally, institutions are already actively investing in the emerging
asset class and the trend is likely to continue throughout 2020.
Will institutions further bolster the crypto market in 2020?
Prior to 2019, institutional investors only really had Bitcoin
Investment Trust (GBTC) by Grayscale and CME Group’s futures market to
invest in bitcoin.
“We’ve already started to see small institutions enter the
cryptocurrency space. Hundreds have joined Coinbase Custody in the past
18 months. I would expect this rapid growth to continue in 2020, with
larger and larger institutions coming on board. Eventually just about
every financial institution will have some sort of cryptocurrency
operation, and most funds will keep a portion of their assets in
cryptocurrencies, partially due to the uncorrelated returns.â€
“Bakkt will be likely first a trickle and then a flood. The reality
is that most regulated futures contracts get low adoption on day1 simply
b/c not all futures brokers are ready to clear it, many ppl want to
wait and see, the tickers are not even populated on risk systems, etc,â€
Three Arrows Capital CEO Su Zhu said.
Independent funds seeing more institutional inflow
Despite a noticeable decrease in deal value in the latter half of
2019, in October of last year, Anthony Pompliano of Morgan Creek Digital
said that the firm’s crypto fund secured $60 million from institutional
investors.
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 11:36 AM on Friday, January 3rd, 2020
SPONSOR:ThreeD Capital Inc. (IDK:CSE)
Led by legendary financier, Sheldon Inwentash, ThreeD is a
Canadian-based venture capital firm that only invests in best of breed
small-cap companies which are both defensible and mass scalable. More
than just lip service, Inwentash has financed many of Canada’s biggest
small-cap exits. Click Here For More Information.
Why 2020 will be a big year for crypto
2020 is going to be a big year for crypto.Â
The “Crypto Winter†of 2018/2019 flushed out much (but certainly not all) of the nonsense, and the market has significantly matured over the last few years.
In 2020, I expect accelerating crypto asset adoption, and key
building blocks will come into place for crypto to achieve its long-term
potential of revolutionizing how value is stored and transferred around
the world.
I think my 85 theses from ~7 months ago have aged pretty well. Here, I’ll focus on the 15 most impactful developments I expect to see in 2020.
Institutional Investing
The Global Macro Investors Come In
Ray Dalio clearly laid out the global macro thesis for crypto when he said:
“So, the big question worth pondering at this time is which
investments will perform well in a reflationary environment accompanied
by large liabilities coming due and with significant internal conflict
between capitalists and socialists, as well as external conflicts. It is
also a good time to ask what will be the next-best currency or
storehold of wealth to have when most reserve currency central bankers
want to devalue their currencies in a fiat currency system.â€
Ray’s conclusion was to buy gold. In 2020, I believe large global
macro hedge fund investors (potentially even Ray) will publicly take the
position that bitcoin is a logical asset to hold if you believe this
narrative.
Traditional Asset Managers Continue to Trickle In
I am very encouraged by the State Street survey indicating 94% of their clients hold digital assets or related products, and a survey of endowment funds in which 94% of them stated that they invested in crypto assets over the last year.
I expect these types of traditional asset managers to continue to
show strong interest in crypto in 2020, but do not expect massive
inflows from this segment.
The primary reason for this is that portfolio manager incentives are not conducive to encouraging large crypto allocations. Currently,
crypto is still a non-consensus investment. If a portfolio manager gets
behind investing in crypto, and it does well, they probably get a nice
bonus (but not the types of payouts available to those investing their
own money or 2/20 hedge funds); however, if it does poorly (or they lose
money in an operational issue like an exchange hack), they get fired
for losing client funds in “magical internet money.â€
The portfolio manager who sticks with the consensus position of not
taking a meaningful bet on crypto keeps their cushy job. Eventually, I
believe the consensus will shift to the position that crypto has a role
to play in a diversified portfolio, but not this year.
For active retail traders looking for quick gains, long-tail altcoin
trading was once the place to find the volatility and potential they
sought.
Now, with altcoins down 90%+ from highs, active traders are
increasingly moving to leveraged bitcoin derivatives trading, which
offers the volatility they seek, in an asset that is not on its way to
zero.
I expect volumes on U.S. regulated crypto derivatives exchanges
(e.g., CME, Bakkt) to grow strongly, but the center of activity this
space will continue to come from exchanges that cater to non-U.S. retail
traders (BitMEX and the like).
Stats Get Stacked (and Earn Interest)
While derivatives are great for active traders, the more important
developments for those accumulating crypto are those that enable them to
easily grow their holdings.
In 2020, this will happen in two ways: 1) The ability to earn crypto
for retail activity will accelerate as more ecommerce and payment
companies integrate this into their offerings, and 2) Crypto holdings
will increasingly migrate to places where they earn interest, such as
BlockFi, Celsius, and Voyager.
Automated Tax-Loss Harvesting Becomes Available
Crypto taxes are a disaster not only due to the horrendous reporting
from many exchanges but also because investors are missing out on the
ability to significantly reduce their taxes via automated tax-loss
harvesting.
Personal Capital and robo-advisors made tax-loss harvesting
mainstream for traditional assets, and in 2020, this will finally come
to crypto (along with better tax reporting).
Market Structure
Fewer Exchanges, More Brokerages
The number of crypto exchanges exploded over the last few years. In
2020, I expect this to rationalize. Exchanges are inherently network
effect businesses (liquidity begets liquidity), and smaller players will
fall behind, and either be acquired, fold, or pivot their business
models.
I expect those that excel at acquiring and servicing customers will
become brokerages and source their liquidity from other exchanges or
large liquidity providers.
Use of Third-Party Custodians Increases
Exchanges and brokerages will increasingly use third-party custodians
as they focus on their core competencies. This will make the market
safer (as assets are custodied with best-in-class providers) and will
eventually increase capital efficiency, as assets held at major
custodians will provide buying power across multiple exchanges.
The emergence of instant crypto settlement solutions (think
Silvergate Exchange Network for crypto) from large crypto custodians
will also be a major development in 2020, and further increase the
utility of market participants holding their assets with these
custodians.
Crypto Friendly Banks Scale
Obtaining fiat banking accounts and payment services has been, and
will continue to be, one of the biggest issues for crypto companies.
Around the world, large risk adverse banks will continue to shy away
from banking the crypto industry, providing an opening for new entrants
and smaller players to fill the gap as technology-driven intermediaries,
or full-stack de novo banks. In 2020, I expect some new entrants to run
into significant issues with regulators, while those that are able to
navigate regulatory pressures will scale impressively.
Lending Market Grows
The crypto lending/borrowing market flourished in 2019, let by companies such as Genesis, BlockFi, and Celsius.
I expect volumes will continue to significantly expand in 2020 across
several vectors: 1) Traders borrowing crypto to short and overcome
capital inefficiencies, 2) Investors borrowing dollars using their
crypto as collateral (much more tax efficient then selling), and 3)
Crypto companies becoming de facto banks by taking stablecoin deposits
and making stablecoin loans.
Counterparty Risk Flares Up
The counterparty risks from holding assets with exchanges (e.g.,
hacks) and payment processors (e.g., Bitfinex / Crypto Capital debacle)
have been the most notable to date.
This year, counterparty risk from defaults by uncollateralized crypto
borrowers and from direct counterparties failing to deliver on trades
(i.e., Herstatt Risk) could also come to light if we see significant
downside volatility.
These are likely to be smaller flare-ups vs. systematic blow-ups and
will help the market mature as market participants become more
discerning in selecting counterparties and using solutions to minimize
these risks.
Stablecoins
USD Stablecoin Market Cap and Volumes Accelerate
Tether’s remarkable resilience has demonstrated insatiable demand by
market participants not directly served by U.S. banks to have USD
denominated accounts to settle trades and store value. Despite
significant regulatory uncertainty, I expect Tether’s market cap to
continue to continue to grow in 2020.
The regulated fiat-backed USD stablecoin market (USDC, TUSD, PAX)
will experience huge growth rates (off a relatively small base) as they
become the money transfer rail for use cases the need a solution that 1)
is regulated and 2) runs on a open network (anyone with a crypto wallet
can send/receive).
This will be a compelling position that sits between the Silvergate
Exchange Network (regulated + closed network) and Tether (unregulated +
open network).
International Stablecoins Grow
I expect stablecoins for many other major currencies will also start
to gain traction as a regulated, open money movement rail for those
currencies.
Longer term, things get really interesting as liquid markets develop
between stablecoins of various currencies and provide a 24/7, global,
highly efficient FX market that is accessible to everyone (and sidesteps
the correspondent banking system). Eventually, I expect the market cap
of stablecoins will surpass that of bitcoin.
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) Remain Mostly Conceptual
Most contemplated CBDCs are significantly different than stablecoins
such as USDC. With CBDCs, the recordkeeping of the value owned by
individuals and businesses is centralized with a central bank. There are
only a few situations where a central bank / government is likely to
take over this recordkeeping function (e.g., China).
I do not expect any major CBDCs to be launched in 2020 (other than
small scale PoCs) but do expect significant developments in 2021 and
beyond.
Emerging Markets Usage
Emerging Market Adoption Continues to Grow
The adoption of crypto assets in markets with hyperinflation has
grown significantly and will continue to do so. The interesting question
will be if bitcoin or stablecoins emerge as the primary winner in these
regions.
My heart hopes that it’s bitcoin, but my head says it will be stablecoins.
DeFi
Impressive Innovation, Little Adoption
The most innovative developments in crypto continue to be in DeFi
(decentralized lending, derivatives, exchange, prediction markets,
etc.), but 2020 breakout growth in this area is highly unlikely.
Currently, these solutions simply do not solve problems better than
centralized options, and each of the smart contract platforms have
issues that will complicate adoption (with ETH it is the complexity of
their development roadmap).
Posted by AGORACOM-JC
at 11:26 AM on Monday, December 30th, 2019
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Bitcoin demand is strong affirms prominent crypto-trader
In a recent thread on Twitter, popular cryptocurrency trader, Scott
Melker, posted his findings on analyzing candle wicks on the monthly Bitcoin charts.
Wicks usually show the extent to which an asset’s price fluctuated
between the open and close of the candle’s time frame. Long upper wicks
near a peak indicate market participants are trying to sell as high as
possible, increasing selling pressure and driving the price down. Long
lower wicks near a valley, however, show traders are looking to buy at
the lowest price possible, increasing buying pressure and driving the
price up.
Melker, who goes by ‘The Wolf of All Streets’ on Twitter, noted that since May, when BTC
nearly touched $14,000, the successive monthly candles’ upper wicks
have been receding in length, becoming shorter and shorter toward
October.
In a similar fashion, he pointed out how the monthly candles after
October showed increasing lengths in their lower wicks, with the month
of October itself showing a balance in length between upper and lower
candle wicks. According to Melker, this indicated strong BTC selling pressure during the rally earlier this year, as well as stronger buying on dips.
Additionally, Melker affirmed his hypothesis that demand is strong by
drawing attention to the previous week’s swing failure pattern.
Further, he claimed that BTC‘s
last weekly candle’s wick crossing under the last swing’s low indicated
the “price was pushed down to fit orders — engineered liquidity.â€
While not a flawless basis on which to expect a bull market, a look at the historical data for Bitcoin‘s weekly price shows candles with long wicks have tended to precede considerable movement in BTC
value. As the market looks to buy at lower and lower levels, it seems
likely that sellers will continue to prop the price up higher and
higher, possibly leading to a gradual rise in Bitcoin value over the coming weeks and months.