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#PGM: #Platinum to rally in the near-term, #palladium stays range-bounded – SPONSOR: New Age Metals $NAM.ca $WG.ca $XTM.ca $WM.ca $PDL.ca $GLEN

Posted by AGORACOM-JC at 1:07 PM on Monday, June 8th, 2020

SPONSOR: New Age Metals Inc. The company owns one of North America’s largest primary platinum group metals deposits in Sudbury, Canada. The company has an updated NI 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate of 2,867,000 PdEq Measured and Indicated Ounces, with an additional 1,059,000 PdEq Ounces Inferred. Learn More.

PGM: Platinum to rally in the near-term, palladium stays range-bounded

  • The combination of firming commodity and investment demand could create the set-up for a recovery in platinum prices, most notably in 2021
  • For palladium, spot prices will be supported as industrial demand recovers and the industry works through built-up inventories, amid a structural shortage which will remain in place for years to come

By FX Street

Strategists at TD Securities see room for platinum prices to rally in the near-term, before the market rebalances and contains prices while palladium is set to remain range-bound before the demand retrieves. 

Key quotes

“The combination of firming commodity and investment demand could create the set-up for a recovery in platinum prices, most notably in 2021. For palladium, spot prices will be supported as industrial demand recovers and the industry works through built-up inventories, amid a structural shortage which will remain in place for years to come.”

“The palladium market should benefit from shrinking lease rates as metal scarcity is temporarily shelved by collapsing demand. Notwithstanding, we expect palladium to remain in a structural shortage in the coming years, suggesting we may not have seen the end of sky-high lease rates.”

“We ultimately expect the unprecedented scale of central bank stimulus to drive a multi-year bull market in precious metals, as capital seeks to shelter itself from monetary inflation. As global economies recover from the pandemic, we expect investment demand to rebound and demand for industrial-precious metals, in particular, to rise substantially.”

Source: https://www.forexcrunch.com/pgm-platinum-to-rally-in-the-near-term-palladium-stays-range-bounded-tds/

Chinese car demand could boost #PGM prices – SPONSOR: New Age Metals $NAM.ca $WG.ca $XTM.ca $WM.ca $PDL.ca $GLEN

Posted by AGORACOM-JC at 4:17 PM on Thursday, June 4th, 2020

SPONSOR: New Age Metals Inc. The company owns one of North America’s largest primary platinum group metals deposits in Sudbury, Canada. The company has an updated NI 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate of 2,867,000 PdEq Measured and Indicated Ounces, with an additional 1,059,000 PdEq Ounces Inferred. Learn More.

Chinese car demand could boost PGM prices

  • A combination of another supply disruption in South Africa and improving Chinese auto sales bode well for prices of platinum group metals, said BMO Capital Markets
  • Anglo American Platinum has shut down its Phase B unit of the Anglo Converter Plant for the second time this year due to equipment issues

By: Allen Sykora

(Kitco News) – The combination of another supply disruption in South Africa and improving Chinese auto sales bode well for prices of platinum group metals, said BMO Capital Markets. Analysts cited Wednesday news that Anglo American Platinum has shut down its Phase B unit of the Anglo Converter Plant for the second time this year due to equipment issues. This could mean “a further near-term rally” in PGM prices, considering Chinese auto demand is improving again after COVID-19 lockdowns interfered with sales earlier in the year, BMO said. PGMs are used in auto catalysts. Amplats did not offer guidance on the impact of the closure, saying it would provide more details as it has more information. However, BMO estimated that should the outage last a month, this could remove around 150,000 ounces of platinum and 100,000 ounces of palladium from the market. “In particular, the latter [palladium] remains a market with low available inventory, such that any prolonged outage could see prices retest the previous record seen earlier this year,” BMO said.

Source: https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-06-04/Amplats-news-Chinese-car-demand-could-boost-PGM-prices.html

New Age Metals $NAM.ca River Valley Drilling Continues to Intersect and Expand #Palladium Mineralization at the Pine Zone $WG.ca $XTM.ca $WM.ca $PDL.ca $GLEN #PGM

Posted by AGORACOM-JC at 9:13 AM on Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020
  • Palladium mineralization is still open to expansion by drilling to the east, particularly testing a strong IP chargeability high located about 400 metres along strike, and also by drilling down-dip to the south
  • Hole PZ-20-04 intersected 1101 ppb Pd+Pt+Au (1.250 g/t PdEq) over 12 metres from 50 metres downhole, including 1361 ppb Pd+Pt+Au over 8 metres in the Pine Zone; and
  • Hole PZ-20-01 intersects 1287 ppb Pd+Pt+Au (1.477 g/t PdEq) over 3 metres from 168 metres downhole in the Pine Zone

June 2nd, 2020 – Rockport, Canada – New Age Metals Inc. (TSXV:NAM); (OTC:NMTLF); (FSE:P7J) – The Company is pleased to announce new results from the 2020 Phase 1 exploration drilling program at its 100% owned River Valley Palladium Project. This district-scale land package and large mineral resource is located near the City of Sudbury, Ontario,
and its world-class mining and processing facilities.

Chairman and CEO Harry Barr stated; “Phase 1 of the 2020 drill program was successful in extending the known limits of the Pine Zone Palladium mineralization 50 metres up-dip to the north and 50 metres along strike to the east. The Palladium mineralization is still open to expansion by drilling to the east, particularly testing a strong IP chargeability high located about 400 metres along strike, and also by drilling down-dip to the south (see Figure 1). The 2020 drilling was also successful at broadly establishing the presence of Palladium mineralization at the connection of the Pine Zone to the Dana North Zone.”

This release describes results from 1,685.5 metres of drilling in 8 holes completed in Q2 2020 on the Pine Zone-Dana North Zone area of the multi-million-ounce River Valley Palladium Project. The objectives of the drill program were threefold: 1) expand the limits of the Pine Zone Palladium mineralization; 2) investigate possible connection of the Pine Zone to the Dana North Zone at depth; and 3) test Palladium mineralization continuity within the 2019 Block Model.
The drill program was successful in extending the Pine Zone mineralization up-dip to the north and along strike to the east, thereby demonstrating opportunity to further expand the Mineral Resources in support of a Prefeasibility Study in 2021-2022.

The Pine Zone was discovered by drilling an IP chargeability high in 2015-2016, in the footwall to the main River Valley deposit at the Dana North Zone, at the north end of the Property and under the main access road. Seven holes were drilled into the Pine Zone-T3 area in 2015-2016 and 14 in 2017 plus the 5 in 2020 for a total of 26 holes. Before 2015, seven holes had been drilled through the Dana North Zone and into the Pine Zone prior to recognition of the latter as a separate, differently oriented zone.

2020 Palladium Highlights

Highlights of the Phase 1 2020 drill program are as follows:

– Hole PZ-20-04 intersected 1101 ppb Pd+Pt+Au (1.250 g/t PdEq) over 12 metres from 50 metres downhole, including 1361 ppb Pd+Pt+Au over 8 metres in the Pine Zone; and

– Hole PZ-20-01 intersects 1287 ppb Pd+Pt+Au (1.477 g/t PdEq) over 3 metres from 168 metres downhole in the Pine Zone

Palladium Results

The details of the Phase 1 2020 drill program are presented in Tables 1-2 and Figure 1.
Holes PZ-20-02 and PZ-20-04, -05 and -06 were drilled to expand the Palladium mineralization beyond the 2019 Mineral Resources at the Pine Zone. Hole PZ-20-02 targeted an IP chargeability high and intersected 0.597 g/t PdEq from 125 metres downhole, which expands the mineralization 50 metres along strike to the east from the Mineral Resource Block Model. Holes PZ-20-04, -05 and -06 were drilled to expand the Palladium mineralization up-dip to the north, by 10 metres,
50 metres and 100 metres, respectively. Hole PZ-20-04 targeted an IP chargeability high and intersected 12 metres grading 1.250 g/t PdEq from only 50 metres downhole, including
8 metres at 1.542 g/t PdEq
, and 5 metres grading 0.499 g/t PdEq from 66 metres downhole.
Hole PZ-20-05 intersected 3 metres grading 0.857 g/t PdEq from only 50 metres downhole.
This intersection appears to be slightly more copper rich (Table 2). Hole PZ-20-06 lacked significant assay results but did intersect the breccia unit, the favourable host rock for the Palladium mineralization at River Valley.

Holes T3-20-01, T3-20-02 and PZ-20-03 were drilled to test for the presence of Palladium mineralization where the Pine Zone may be connected at depth to the main River Valley Palladium deposit at the Dana North Zone. Palladium mineralization was intersected in all three holes:
1) Hole T3-20-01 intersected 17 metres grading 0.744 g/t PdEq from 248 metres downhole;
2) T3-20-02 intersected 17 metres of 0.622 g/t PdEq from 318 metres downhole; and 3) PZ-20-03 intersected 0.412 g/t PdEq from 197 metres downhole.

Hole PZ-20-01 was designed to test Palladium grade continuity within the 2019 Mineral Resource Model. PZ-20-01 was collared 50 metres from the nearest previously drilled hole and intersected 3 metres grading 1.477 g/t PdEq from 168 metres downhole. This intersection lies within the Block Model volume of the 2019 mineral resource.


Click Image To View Full Size

* Collar coordinates are UTM NAD83 Zone 17N


Click Image To View Full Size

Notes: 1000 ppb = 1 gram/tonne

The lengths reported are core lengths, but should approximate true widths

nsa = no significant assays

PdEq g/t = Pd g/t + (Pt g/t x 0.89) + (Au g/t x 1.20) + (Cu% x 1.34) + (Ni% x 2.55) + (Co% x 9.01)

For PdEq calculation details, see 2019 Technical Report, “Updated Mineral Resource Estimate and Preliminary Economic Assessment of the River Valley Project”, by P&E Mining Consultants Inc. and DRA Americas Inc.


Click Image To View Full Size

Figure 1. Location of 2020 Phase 1 drill holes (labelled) and previously drilled holes plotted on an inverted IP chargeability image (coloured) and 3-D wireframe model of the Dana North Zone and Pine Zone (covered), River Valley Palladium Project near Sudbury (Ontario, Canada). Note from the inset map that the River Valley Palladium Project is located 60 linear km ENE of the City of Sudbury.

Discussion

The Palladium mineralization at the Pine Zone remains open to expansion by drilling to the east, particularly testing a strong IP chargeability high located about 400 metres along strike, and also by drilling down-dip to the south. Palladium mineralization was also broadly established at the connection of the Pine Zone to the Dana North Zone.

The results of the 2020 Phase 1 drilling bring the cumulative total number of holes intersecting the Pine Zone to 33. The number of Palladium mineralized intersections within the Pine Zone now totals 41, over an area measuring up to 250 metres along strike and 550 metres down-dip.
Note again that the Pine Zone remains open down-dip and particularly to the east, where the most tantalizing IP chargeability high is located.

Assay Procedures & QA/QC

The 2020 Phase 1 drilling was completed by Jacob & Samuel Drilling Ltd. of Sudbury, Ontario under the supervision of NAM geologists. The drill core samples were sent to the SGS Canada Inc. Laboratory in Lakefield, Ontario for sample preparation and assay analyses. The preparation involved crushing of 3 kg of each sample to 90% passing 2 mm, and then pulverizing 0.5 kg to 85% passing 75 um. Palladium, Platinum and Gold were assayed by fire assay with ICP-AES finish (GE-FAI313). Copper, Nickel and 32 additional metals were assayed by two acid digestion and ICP-OES finish (GE-ICP14B). Blanks and blind certified standard samples were submitted at regular intervals for assay with the core samples as part of NAM’s rigorous Quality Assurance/Quality Control program.

Next Steps

NAM is considering its next steps in Palladium exploration and project development at River Valley in 2020. The next steps include any one or a combination of the following activities:

– Analyze significant Palladium core intersections in the Pine Zone for Rhodium;

– Update the 3-D geological modelling of the Pine Zone;

– Carry out further environmental baseline studies (including an archaeological survey);

– Complete Phase 2 drilling, particularly at the priority footwall IP chargeability high,

the Pine Zone-Dana North Zone connection, and down-dip;

– Conduct borehole-IP surveys for off-hole anomalies outside the known resource; and

– Undertake Phase 2 metallurgical studies

The purpose of these activities would be to advance the River Valley Palladium Project and support the Prefeasibility study planned for 2021-22.

About the River Valley Palladium Project

The details of the updated Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) and Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) were announced in the press release dated August 9, 2019 and are described on NAM’s website. The pit constrained Updated Mineral Resource Estimate formed the basis of the PEA. At a cut-off grade of 0.35 g/t PdEq, the Updated Mineral Resource Estimate contains 2.867 Moz PdEq in the Measured plus Indicated classifications and 1.059 Moz PdEq in the Inferred classification. The PEA is a preliminary report, but it demonstrates that there are potentially positive economics for a large-scale mining open pit operation, with 14 years of Palladium production. Refer to the NAM website (www.newagemetals.com) for details.

About NAM

New Age Metals is a junior mineral exploration and development company focused on the discovery, exploration and development of green metal projects in North America.
The Company has two divisions; a Platinum Group Metals division and a Lithium/Rare Element division. The PGM division includes the 100% owned River Valley Project, one of North America’s largest undeveloped Platinum Group Metals Projects, situated 100 km from Sudbury, Ontario and the Genesis PGM Project in Alaska. The Lithium division is the largest mineral claim holder in the Winnipeg River Pegmatite Field where the Company is exploring for hard rock lithium and various rare elements such as tantalum and rubidium. Our philosophy is to be a project generator with the objective of optioning our projects with major and junior mining companies through to production. New Age Metals is a junior resource company on the TSX Venture Exchange, trading symbol NAM, OTCQB: NMTLF; FSE: P7J with 137,347,966 shares issued to date.

Investors are invited to visit the New Age Metals website at www.newagemetals.com where they can review the company and its corporate activities. Any questions or comments can be directed to [email protected] or Harry Barr at [email protected] or Cody Hunt at [email protected] or call 613 659 2773.

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Qualified Person

The contents contained herein that relate to Exploration Results or Mineral Resources is based on information compiled, reviewed or prepared by Bill Stone, P.Geo., a consulting geoscientist for New Age Metals. Dr. Stone is the Qualified Person as defined by National Instrument 43-101 and has reviewed and approved the technical content of this news release.

On behalf of the Board of Directors

Harry Barr”

Harry G. Barr

Chairman and CEO

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward Looking Statements: This release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. These statements may differ materially from actual future events or results and are based on current expectations or beliefs. For this purpose, statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. In addition, forward-looking statements include statements in which the Company uses words such as “continue”, “efforts”, “expect”, “believe”, “anticipate”, “confident”, “intend”, “strategy”, “plan”, “will”, “estimate”, “project”, “goal”, “target”, “prospects”, “optimistic” or similar expressions. These statements by their nature involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially depending on a variety of important factors, including, among others, the Company’s ability and continuation of efforts to timely and completely make available adequate current public information, additional or different regulatory and legal requirements and restrictions that may be imposed, and other factors as may be discussed in the documents filed by the Company on SEDAR (www.sedar.com), including the most recent reports that identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements. The Company does not undertake any obligation to review or confirm analysts’ expectations or estimates or to release publicly any revisions to any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

New Age Metals $NAM.ca Appoints Mr. Cody Hunt as VP Business Development $WG.ca $XTM.ca $WM.ca $PDL.ca $GLEN #PGM

Posted by AGORACOM-JC at 8:39 AM on Thursday, May 21st, 2020

May 21st, 2020 – Vancouver, Canada – New Age Metals Inc. (TSXV:NAM); (OTC:NMTLF); (FSE:P7J). The Company is pleased to appoint Mr. Cody Hunt as Vice President of Business Development.

Chairman and CEO Harry Barr stated; “Over the past two years, Mr. Hunt has done an excellent job working in all aspects of business development for New Age Metals. The board and management of New Age Metals are pleased to promote Mr. Hunt to an officer of the Company with his title of Vice President of Business Development. Going forward, Mr. Hunt will work with the board and management to find new strategic partners for the Company’s projects, participate in and monitor the technical development of our existing projects, evaluate potential new opportunities and continue to source additional funding for the Company.”

Mr. Hunt has worked for New Age since 2018 in Business Development and has been actively involved in identifying, establishing and developing strategic relationships and has participated in the development and execution of the company’s business planning and strategy. Mr. Hunt is a graduate of Queen’s University from the Robert M. Buchan Department of Mining. He received his Bachelors degree in Mining Engineering while specializing in Mineral Processing in 2018. Mr. Hunt is also actively pursuing his Chartered Financial Analyst designation.

About NAM

New Age Metals is a junior mineral exploration and development company focused on the discovery, exploration and development of green metal projects in North America. The Company has two divisions; a Platinum Group Metals division and a Lithium/Rare Element division. The PGM division includes the 100% owned River Valley Project, one of North America’s largest undeveloped Platinum Group Metals Projects, situated 100 kilometers from Sudbury, Ontario as well as the Genesis PGM Project in Alaska. The Lithium division is the largest mineral claim holder in the Winnipeg River Pegmatite Field where the Company is exploring for hard rock lithium and various rare elements such as tantalum and rubidium. Our philosophy is to be a project generator with the objective of optioning our projects with major and junior mining companies through to production. New Age Metals is a junior resource company on the TSX Venture Exchange, trading symbol NAM, OTCQB:NMTLF; FSE:P7J with 137,347,966 shares issued to date.

Investors are invited to visit the New Age Metals website at www.newagemetals.com where they can review the company and its corporate activities. Any questions or comments can be directed to [email protected] or Harry Barr at [email protected] or Cody Hunt at [email protected] or call 613 659 2773.

Opt-in List

If you have not done so already, we encourage you to sign up on our website (www.newagemetals.com) to receive our updated news.

On behalf of the Board of Directors

Harry Barr”

Harry G. Barr

Chairman and CEO

BAML sees #platinum, #palladium deficit this year as South Africa production losses bite – SPONSOR: New Age Metals $NAM.ca $WG.ca $XTM.ca $WM.ca $PDL.ca $GLEN #PGM

Posted by AGORACOM-JC at 9:00 PM on Sunday, May 10th, 2020

SPONSOR: New Age Metals Inc. The company owns one of North America’s largest primary platinum group metals deposits in Sudbury, Canada. The company has an updated NI 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate of 2,867,000 PdEq Measured and Indicated Ounces, with an additional 1,059,000 PdEq Ounces Inferred. Learn More.

BAML sees platinum, palladium deficit this year as South Africa production losses bite

  • There is likely to be a deficit of platinum and palladium this year after a COVID-19 lockdown in South Africa, the world’s biggest platinum producer, forced mines to shut, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicted on Friday
  • While demand for platinum group metals, which are mainly used in cars and jewellery, has also plummeted due to the global pandemic, the analysts said they expect demand to rebound, while mine production will take months to build back up.

By Helen Reid; Editing by Mark Potter

In South Africa, which produces 78% of the world’s platinum and 36% of palladium according to BAML, a strict lockdown to stop the spread of COVID-19 forced most mines to shut from March 27.

Though the government allowed mines to restart at up to 50% capacity from April 16, BAML analysts predict it will take six months for production to ramp back up to pre-pandemic levels.

“Our base line assumption is that output runs at 50% in May and June, before rising to capacity by December,” they wrote in a note dated May 7 but distributed to media on May 8.

“Putting it all together, we anticipate that both platinum and palladium will be in deficit this year. As such, we remain bullish the white metals into year-end.”

South Africa’s biggest platinum miners have cut production guidance for 2020 and announced production losses due to the lockdown.

Anglo American Platinum said quarterly production decreased by 7%, while Impala Platinum reported a 6% drop.

Analysts are split on how the demand-supply dynamics will play out: Citi on Wednesday predicted platinum group metals prices could fall 15-20% due to a “rising surplus”.

Platinum prices are down 20% since the start of the year, while palladium prices have fallen 3.6%.

Source: https://www.marketscreener.com/PALLADIUM-89084/news/BAML-sees-platinum-palladium-deficit-this-year-as-South-Africa-production-losses-bite-30567604/

#Palladium Weekly: Uptrend Set To Prevail This Year – SPONSOR: New Age Metals $NAM.ca $WG.ca $XTM.ca $WM.ca $PDL.ca $GLEN #PGM

Posted by AGORACOM-JC at 5:27 PM on Tuesday, April 28th, 2020

SPONSOR: New Age Metals Inc. The company owns one of North America’s largest primary platinum group metals deposits in Sudbury, Canada. The company has an updated NI 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate of 2,867,000 PdEq Measured and Indicated Ounces, with an additional 1,059,000 PdEq Ounces Inferred. Learn More.

Palladium Weekly: Uptrend Set To Prevail This Year

  • We continue to believe that palladium benefits from the tightest fundamental backdrop, with the market likely to post a meaningful deficit in 2020 despite a contraction in automotive demand.
  • The negative seasonality in May-June could lead to some palladium price weakness, which we would view as a buying opportunity.

Thesis

Welcome to Orchid’s Palladium Weekly report, in which we discuss palladium prices through the lenses of the Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL).

PALL has come under downward pressure since the start of April, despite a strong performance across the rest of the precious metals space.

The recent underperformance of palladium is driven by three main factors:

  1. Less exposure to South African PGM production disruptions
  2. More sensitivity to the recession in the automotive sector
  3. Less safe-haven demand

However, we continue to believe that palladium benefits from the tightest fundamental backdrop, with the market likely to post a meaningful deficit in 2020 despite a contraction in automotive demand for PGMs.

As a result, we expect the uptrend in PALL to prevail this year and next.

For Q2, we see PALL trading between $170 and $285 per share, implying a risk/reward skewed to the upside.

Source: Trading View, Orchid Research

About PALL

For investors seeking exposure to the fluctuations of palladium prices, PALL is an interesting investment vehicle because it seeks to track spot palladium prices by physically holding palladium bars, which are located in JPM vaults in London and Zurich. The vaults are inspected twice a year, including once randomly.

The Fund summary is as follows:

PALL seeks to reflect the performance of the price of physical palladium, less the Trust’s expenses.

Its expense ratio is 0.60%. In other words, a long position in PALL of $10,000 held over 12 months would cost the investor $60.

Liquidity conditions are poorer than that for platinum. PALL shows an average daily volume of $3 million and an average spread (over the past two months) of 0.33%.

Speculative positioning

Source: CFTC, Orchid Research

The speculative community slashed by the equivalent of ~2 koz its net long position in NYMEX palladium in the week to April 21, according to the CFTC. The NYMEX palladium price sold off by 6.3% over the corresponding period, suggesting the presence of additional selling pressure stemming from the OTC market and the physical market.

Since the start of the year, the speculative community has sold the equivalent of 1.053 moz of net long positions in NYMEX palladium, representing around 15% of annual supply. Despite this, the NYMEX palladium price is still up nearly 6% YTD. This highlights the fundamental strength in the physical market.

Because palladium’s spec positioning is very light (the net spec length is at just 10% of open interest), there is plenty of room for speculative buying pressure in case of a positive swing in sentiment among the speculative community.

Implications for PALL: The current spec positioning in NYMEX palladium is a potential bullish force for palladium prices due to the ample dry powder available to deploy among the speculative community. A renewed wave of spec buying in NYMEX palladium would push the NYMEX palladium price much higher, thereby boosting PALL in the process.

Investment positioning

Source: Orchid Research

ETF investors bought around 3 koz of palladium in the week to April 24, marking the 2nd week of net buying.

Given the weakness in automotive demand for palladium due to the COVID-19 crisis, the re-emergence of palladium ETF buying could help underpin the uptrend in the NYMEX palladium price. That said, we contend that it is too early to assert that a sustained positive change in investor sentiment toward palladium has occurred this month.

ETF investors have sold roughly 193 koz since the start of the year, marking a 28% decline in palladium ETF holdings.

Once again, despite the contraction in ETF demand for palladium, the NYMEX palladium price is up on the year. This shows the extent to which the physical palladium market is tight.

Implications for PALL: A resumption of ETF inflows in palladium would be bullish for the NYMEX palladium price and thus PALL.

Automotive demand

Last week, we discussed the supply side of the palladium market. This week, we discuss the outlook for automotive demand for palladium.

Source: Johnson Matthey

Palladium demand from the automotive industry represents around 85% of gross palladium demand, according to Johnson Matthey.

JP Morgan predicts a contraction of 13% in global light vehicle production this year, including a contraction of 25% YoY in the first quarter. In Q1, JP Morgan estimates that Chinese production contracted by 50% YoY while production dropped by 17% YoY both in North America and Europe.

This would translate into a decline of roughly 7% in automotive demand for palladium this year.

Source: JPM

Implications for PALL: The contraction in automotive demand for palladium should be largely offset by the contraction in palladium mine supply in 2020. As such, the palladium market is likely to remain in a meaningful deficit this year and post an even deeper deficit next year. As the fundamental tightness in the physical palladium market is set to prevail, we believe that the uptrend in PALL is intact for this year and next.

Closing thoughts

We expect the uptrend in PALL to prevail in 2020 and next year, principally because the palladium market is expected to post a meaningful deficit in spite of the recession in the automotive industry.

The extremely low level of visible inventories is likely to intensify the positive impact on palladium prices.

Given the negative seasonality in May-June, we stand ready to buy the dips in case of a retest of the recent lows.

For Q2, we see PALL trading between $170 and $285 per share, implying a risk/reward skewed to the upside.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4340578-palladium-weekly-uptrend-set-to-prevail-this-year

Even a #coronavirus crisis can’t puncture #palladium prices – SPONSOR: New Age Metals $NAM.ca $WG.ca $XTM.ca $WM.ca $PDL.ca $GLEN #PGM

Posted by AGORACOM-JC at 5:57 PM on Friday, April 24th, 2020

SPONSOR: New Age Metals Inc. The company owns one of North America’s largest primary platinum group metals deposits in Sudbury, Canada. The company has an updated NI 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate of 2,867,000 PdEq Measured and Indicated Ounces, with an additional 1,059,000 PdEq Ounces Inferred. Learn More.

Even a coronavirus crisis can’t puncture palladium prices

  • “The palladium market is still in a deficit,” said INTL FCStone analyst Rhona O’Connell, and demand should revive as the global economy recovers.

By Peter Hobson and Harshith Aranya

Analysts and traders have raised their forecasts for palladium prices, predicting the metal will remain undersupplied even as the coronavirus outbreak hammers auto makers, reducing demand, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

The sister metals are used mainly in engine exhausts to reduce harmful emissions, though platinum is also used by jewellers.

Prices have whipsawed as virus containment measures shuttered car plants, spooked markets and disrupted supply routes, particularly from top producer South Africa.

Palladium surged to a record high of $2,875.50 an ounce in February, plunged to below $1,500 in March, then rebounded to around $2,200.

Prices will average $2,100 an ounce this year and $2,150 in 2021, according to the median result from a poll of 24 analysts and traders conducted this month.

A similar poll in January forecast averages of $2,000 this year and $1,700 in 2021.

“The palladium market is still in a deficit,” said INTL FCStone analyst Rhona O’Connell, and demand should revive as the global economy recovers.

“But the effervescence of the past few years” – prices surged more than six-fold between 2016 and 2020 – “is in all probability behind us,” she said.

The roughly 10.5-million ounce a year palladium market will see a deficit of 500,000 ounces this year, said Robin Bhar, an independent analyst.

Refinitiv GFMS predicted a 883,000-ounce shortfall, while Capital Economics said it expected a surplus of 300,000 ounces.

Palladium has benefited in recent years from a tightening of emissions standards that require auto makers to use more metal per vehicle. Auto makers account for around 80% of palladium use.

By contrast, platinum is used mainly in diesel vehicles that have fallen in popularity since 2015, when Volkswagen was found to have cheated in emissions tests, and its use in jewellery has decreased.

Platinum prices plummeted in March to $558, the lowest since 2002, before pulling back to around $770.

The poll predicted platinum would average $836 an ounce in 2020 and $945 in 2021 ? a sharp downward revision from forecasts of $948 and $1,013 in the poll three months ago.

(Graphic: Platinum and palladium prices IMAGE link: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/nmovaabdvab/PGM%20Q2%20POLL.JPG)

Weaker economic growth because of measures to contain the novel coronavirus is likely to lead to lower consumption by auto makers, jewellers and other industrial users, such as glass makers.

“The scale of the demand-side destruction, along with the negative long-term chart set-up, suggests that downside price risks remain,” James Moore at Fastmarkets said.

Demand should gradually recover, driven in part by auto makers replacing some palladium with cheaper platinum, Saida Litosh at Refinitiv GFMS said.

Yet she still predicted surpluses in the roughly 8-million ounce a year market of 557,000 ounces this year and 670,000 ounces in 2021.

Source: https://www.marketscreener.com/PALLADIUM-89084/news/Even-a-coronavirus-crisis-can-t-puncture-palladium-prices-30445670/

CLIENT FEATURE: New Age Metals $NAM.ca River Valley #PGM Project Hosts 2.9Moz #Palladium Equivalent (M&I); #Sprott Owns 18.56% $WG.ca $XTM.ca $WM.ca $PDL.ca $GLEN #PGM

Posted by AGORACOM-JC at 9:00 PM on Monday, April 13th, 2020
  • Palladium Is The Hottest Metal On The Planet
  • River Valley Hosts 2.9Moz Palladium Equivalent (Measured & Indicated)
  • Advancing to Pre-Feasibility Study
  • The Largest Undeveloped PGM Project In North America!
  • Eric Sprott Owns 18.56% Of THIS Palladium Company

River Valley PGM Project near Sudbury, ON

  • Palladium is the main payable metal accounting for 65% of revenue stream based on 2019 PEA.
  • 1:0.4 (Pd:Pt).
  • Excellent infrastructure and within 100 kilometers of the Sudbury Metallurgical Complex.
  • NI 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimation (Q1 2019)
  • PEA done Q3 2019.
  • 2020 plan to follow up on PEA recommendations.

Preliminary Economic Assessment demonstrates positive economics for a large-scale open pit mining operation.

PEA Highlights (CDN$):

  • Life of mine (LOM) of 14 years, with 6 million tonnes annually of potential process plant feed at an average grade of 0.88 g/t Palladium Equivalent (PdEq) and process recovery rate of 80%, resulting in an annual average payable PdEq production of 119,000 ounces.
  • Pre-Production capital requirements: $495 M.
  • Undiscounted cash flow before income and mining taxes of $586M.
  • Undiscounted cash flow after income and mining taxes of $384M.
  • Average unit operating cost of $19.50/tonne over the life-of-mine.
  • Potential for up to 325 jobs at the peak of production.
  • Using March 11, 2020 spot Palladium price (US$2,275/oz) River Valley Project After-tax IRR is 30% and After-tax NPV (5%) is $C858M.

New Age Metals Inc. is an advertising client of AGORA Internet Relations Corp.

#Palladium Weekly: Long-Term Uptrend Remains Intact – SPONSOR: New Age Metals $NAM.ca $WG.ca $XTM.ca $WM.ca $PDL.ca $GLEN #PGM

Posted by AGORACOM-JC at 2:55 PM on Monday, April 13th, 2020

SPONSOR: New Age Metals Inc. The company owns one of North America’s largest primary platinum group metals deposit in Sudbury, Canada. Updated NI 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate 2,867,000 PdEq Measured and Indicated Ounces, with an additional 1,059,000 PdEq Ounces Inferred. Learn More.

Palladium Weekly: Long-Term Uptrend Remains Intact

  • PALL has rebounded by nearly 50% since it crashed to its lowest since last August at $137.51 on March 16, taking bears by surprise.
  • The rebound in palladium prices has been driven by a broad-based recovery in the precious metals space following the COVID-19 panic last month.
  • Palladium’s outperformance since late March confirms our view that palladium enjoys the relatively tightest fundamental backdrop.
  • Financial flows are absent, with speculators and ETF investors reducing further exposure to palladium. This confirms that there is no bubble in the palladium market for now.
  • For Q2, we see PALL trading between $135 and $285 per share.

Orchid Research

Thesis

Welcome to Orchid’s Palladium Weekly report, in which we discuss palladium prices through the lenses of the Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL).

PALL has rebounded by nearly 50% since it crashed to its lowest since last August at $137.51 on March 16, taking bears by surprise.

The rebound in palladium prices has been driven by a broad-based recovery in the precious metals space following the wave of ugly deleveraging caused by the COVID-19 panic last month.

That said, palladium is the clear winner, which we attribute to its relatively stronger fundamental backdrop. Before COVID-19, the palladium market was expected to register a deficit exceeding 1 million ounces this year. Although the deficit is likely to be much smaller than initially envisaged due to the likely contraction in automotive demand for palladium, the market is forward-looking and therefore, rises on expectations for a large deficit in 2021.

Source: Bloomberg, Orchid Research

Against this, we express the view that the long-term uptrend in PALL remains intact.

For Q2, we see PALL trading between $135 and $285 per share.

Source: Trading View, Orchid Research

About PALL

For investors seeking exposure to the fluctuations of palladium prices, PALL is an interesting investment vehicle because it seeks to track spot palladium prices by physically holding palladium bars, which are located in JPM vaults in London and Zurich. The vaults are inspected twice a year, including once randomly.

The Fund summary is as follows:

PALL seeks to reflect the performance of the price of physical palladium, less the Trust’s expenses.

Its expense ratio is 0.60%. In other words, a long position in PALL of $10,000 held over 12 months would cost the investor $60.

Liquidity conditions are poorer than that for platinum. PALL shows an average daily volume of $3 million and an average spread (over the past two months) of 0.33%.

Speculative positioning

Source: CFTC, Orchid Research

Non-commercials cut marginally by the equivalent of ~19 koz and their net long position in NYMEX palladium in the week to April 7, according to the CFTC. This was the 12th week of decline in palladium’s net spec length over the past 13.

Over March 31-April 7, the NYMEX palladium price tumbled 6.1%. This suggests the presence of additional OTC selling activity.

Non-commercials have slashed by the equivalent of around 1 million oz their net long positions in NYMEX palladium since the start of the year, which represents 15% of annual supply. Yet, the NYMEX palladium price remains up 14% on the year, even outperforming gold (which is up 11% YTD), a clear confirmation of fundamental strength.

Implications for PALL: The absence of speculative participation in the palladium market in spite of 1)the strong uptrend in prices since 2016 and 2)the tight fundamentals of the market makes us even more bullish on PALL. We would turn cautious on PALL once palladium’s spec positioning becomes too bullish.

Investment positioning

Source: Orchid Research

ETF investors sold 4 koz of palladium in the week to April 10, marking a 6th straight week of selling.

In March, ETF investors liquidated 106 koz, representing the largest monthly net outflow since October 2018.

ETF holdings are now below 500 koz, which represents an extremely low level of visible inventories when remembering that the palladium market was supposed to post a 1+ moz deficit this year.

Implications for PALL: The palladium ETF activity has had a muted impact on the NYMEX palladium price because volumes exchanged are impactless on the global palladium market. Low visible inventories are bullish for PALL over the long term.

Seasonal patterns

Source: Bloomberg, Orchid Research

As the chart above shows, the volatility in palladium prices tends to be extreme in March. 2020 did not disappoint in this regard. Lower volatility in the months ahead should be expected based on palladium’s seasonal patterns.

For April, the seasonality is slightly friendly, with palladium prices recording a median performance of +2.7% (over 2002-2019).

Implications for PALL: The high volatility regime is behind us, in our view. The seasonality is positive for the NYMEX palladium price and thus PALL in April.

Closing thoughts

The recent outperformance of palladium over the rest of its complex confirms our view that palladium enjoys the relatively strongest fundamental backdrop.

The absence of financial flows in palladium despite its price uptrend since 2016 leads us to believe that 1)there is no bubble in the palladium market yet and 2)prices are essentially driven by their fundamental dynamics.

The sudden sell-off in PALL in March was exacerbated by the COVID-19 panic. Although palladium’s fundamentals will prove weaker than expected in 2020 due to a likely contraction in automotive demand, the market seems increasingly focused on 2021 when a large deficit is likely to re-emerge as global economic growth bounces back and automotive demand rebounds.

We maintain that PALL is in a clear long-term uptrend and even though volatility cannot be ruled out, we would only turn cautious when investor sentiment reaches an extreme high. We are far from it.

For Q2, we see PALL trading between $135 and $285 per share.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4337297-palladium-weekly-long-term-uptrend-remains-intact

VIDEO – New Age Metals $NAM.ca 2.9M Ounces Of #Palladium Equivalent Is Why Eric #Sprott Owns 18.5% $WG.ca $XTM.ca $WM.ca $PDL.ca $GLEN #PGM

Posted by AGORACOM-JC at 5:09 PM on Monday, April 6th, 2020

Three years ago, Harry Barr couldn’t get anyone to even look at New Age Metals (NAM:TSXV) flagship property, the 100% owned River Valley Project, one of North America’s largest undeveloped Platinum Group Metals Projects, situated 100 kilometres from Sudbury.  

But with Palladium at $US 2,100/oz and River Valley sitting on 2.9Moz Palladium Equivalent (Measured & Indicated), things have changed significantly, including the fact that  Eric Sprott has become a strategic shareholder with 18.56% ownership.  

WAIT … THERE’S MORE  

NAM’s 2019 Preliminary Economic Assessment highlights include a 14 year mine life, resulting in an annual average payable Palladium Equivalent production of 119,000 ounces.  

WAIT ….. THERE’S ONE MORE THING  

The PEA assumed a Palladium price of $US 1,200, which is now 75% higher at $US 2,100.  

With NAM now using their war chest to further drill River Valley and follow-up on recommendations from the PEA, there is reason to believe this story is only going to get better.  

Grab your favourite beverage and watch this interview with NAM CEO, Harry Barr.