Agoracom Blog Home

Archive for the ‘Trading School’ Category

Want To Trade Against A Blackbox? This Is What You Are Up Against

Posted by AGORACOM at 4:14 PM on Friday, August 12th, 2011

You may have heard the time high-frequency trading (HFT), also known as algorithmic trading and most well known amongst the masses as black box trading. There is plenty of debate about the value of HFT, with dissenters referring to the network of HFT as “Skynet”, the computer that took down the world in the Terminator Series and defined as:

“an artificially intelligent system which became self-aware and revolted against its creators. Skynet is rarely seen onscreen, and its actions are often performed via other robots and computer systems, usually a Terminator.”

I personally don’t bother trying to trade in seconds and still believe 1-3 day swing trades are profitable. You can form your own opinion after reading up on it … but here is a visual as to how sick HFT has become … this is 1 second of trading stretched over a minute, otherwise your eyes simply wouldn’t see a thing.

The first 30 seconds or so are the world we used to know … after that it is HFT world … all of it takes place in 1 second.

Enjoy

NON_CARBON BASED LIFE FORMS from arc w on Vimeo.

AGORACOM Small Cap Wire – Dream Stock List; Wait For Fed Meeting; Gold En Fuego; JP Morgan $2,500 Gold Call .. Coincidence?

Posted by AGORACOM at 1:16 AM on Tuesday, August 9th, 2011

AGORACOM SMALL CAP WIRE – TUESDAY AUGUST 11TH, 2011

UPDATE … 12:50 AM EST … TOP STORY …

GOLD GOES PARABOLIC – Breaks $1,770

WHAT NOW?

Mass Media Spreads Fear … AGORACOM and Its Members Spread Ideas

1.  Make A Dream List Of Stocks and Prices You Want To Own Them At … George Will Share Some In The A.M.

2.  Repeat Last Night … Watch And Wait For Tradeable Bounce OR Reversal … Watch These Into Morning Open:

3.  Wait For The Fed – FOMC Meeting Later Today Will Be Pivotal … Fast Trades Only In The AM Or Stay Out

WHAT DOES JP MORGAN KNOW? … PREDICTED $2,500 GOLD BY DEC 31 MON AFTERNOON … COINCIDENCE? JP Morgan Call …

“JP Morgan Didn’t Make A Gold Call, They Made An Armageddon Call On $USD” George Via Twitter

THE TECHNICAL BIG BEAR CASE – More Relevant Than When First Posted 24 Hours AgoA Must Read

DISCOVER OUR GREAT SPONSORS

TSX Venture Dollar Volume Actives Are Getting Killed Today

Posted by AGORACOM at 1:29 PM on Friday, July 29th, 2011

A Table Is Worth 1,000 jaw drops …. not a good day for the TSX Venture as big money takes money off the table prior to long weekend …. With Canadian markets closed on Monday, nobody wants to be exposed to debt-default risk.

If you’ve got the guts and think Obama / Boehner will hammer out a deal this weekend, now is the time to take advantage of short term trading opportunities.

Embry Triple Digit Silver, Even HIGH Triple Digit Silver Possible Due To Quick Buck Greed

Posted by AGORACOM at 1:20 PM on Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

12:30 PM …. TOP STORY … JOHN EMBRY … SKY ROCKETING SILVER “It is very easy to foresee triple digit silver … and it might be high triple digits before it is over”Read Full Interview … Discuss In Our Silver HUB

Looks like the silver pause is now over and we can all get back to business … Embry says triple digits is foreseeable and high triple is possible.

You could critique this call by saying Embry is just talking his book … and there would be some element of truth to that …. but the fact of the matter is that Embry and Sprott have been dead right about where global finance is today … a position that CNBC pundits would have dismissed as outrageous back in 2007.

Do I think its possible? Fundamentally, we all know the argument, so no point in rehasing … but the real X Factor is pure human greed. We saw it in dot-com, we saw it in real estate, we saw it in derivatives …. and there is no reason why we won’t see it in silver once the masses decide it is the next get rich quick vehicle.

When that day comes, I believe silver has a very good chance of going parabolic and trading out of whack with gold (i.e. 10:1 ratio) for the simple stupid reason that it is cheaper for Joe Public to buy and leverage silver.

We may be entering the profit opportunity of our lives.

G

AGORACOM Wire – What Small-Cap Investors Are Reading Today

Posted by AGORACOM at 10:17 AM on Thursday, May 19th, 2011


AGORACOM WIRE – THURSDAY MAY 19TH 2011

10:10 AM EST

BREAKING …. Extreme Biodiesel (BRKM) Selected to Produce Biodiesel for Two Major Supermarkets CLIENTBut Watch This Company If You Believe Oil Prices Will Remain High

GEORGE BUYS DONNYBROOK AGAIN … After This Successful Trade in April … George Is Back In At $0.55 … Donnybrook Research

6 BIG PRESS RELEASES TODAY … Find Out Which Small-Caps Made AGORACOM Small-Cap TV This Morning … And Why … Watch

NEW HUBS LAUNCHED …. Member “Aurizon” Launches Copper Reef … “Duncanmcl” launches Sandstorm Gold … “Dischino launches Parametric Sound … “1sailsman” launches Star Scientific … Want To Launch A HUB? Request A New HUB
Dominique Strauss-Kahn resigns as IMF chief Read More

DISCOVER OUR SPONSORS – THEY’RE WORTH A LOOK!

SLV 10-Day Trading Range … Ridiculous But A Traders Dream

Posted by AGORACOM at 9:51 AM on Tuesday, May 17th, 2011

Silver ETF (SLV) Making Lower

Posted by AGORACOM at 2:22 PM on Friday, May 6th, 2011

The afternoon isn’t shaping up great for SLV, as it is making lower highs on diminishing volume.  As such, I don’t see much reason to hold out for higher and plenty of reason to short, unless news comes out of nowhere.

Seafield Resources – Why You Never Fall In Love With A Drill Hole + 10 Rules To Trade Juniors By

Posted by AGORACOM at 11:43 AM on Friday, May 6th, 2011

My philosophy is to trade drill holes short-term … and great management teams long term.  Seafield went parabolic at the beginning of the year on one great press release.  The rest has been all pain.  To avoid this pain, remember these simple rules (in no particular order):

  1. Don’t fall in love with a stock
  2. Take most of your profits on parabolic moves
  3. Set rising stops to protect profits
  4. Set an absolute stop to minimize losses
  5. It isn’t personal, it’s all business
  6. Taking some profits makes future decisions more rational
  7. You can’t “get rich” off a position until you sell at least some of it
  8. You don’t know the top … but you know the bottom
  9. Eat a little, eat often
  10. Selling isn’t divorcing … you can play it again

CLICK ON IMAGE FOR LARGER VERSION

    Uranium Stocks Poised For Massive Rebound – HedgeHog Trader Guest Post

    Posted by AGORACOM at 10:58 AM on Friday, April 22nd, 2011

    BECOME A URANIUM ‘CONTRARIAN’:  PROFIT FROM PANIC!

    Dear Investor,

    While most investors have their eye on the precious metals, there is one very special sector poised for a massive surprise rebound – one that may outshine the precious metal sector – and that is uranium stocks! In March, investors sold uranium stocks in a panic as an earthquake and a Tsunami damaged Japan’s nuclear reactors.

    However, those investors, driven by sheer herd mentality, will soon regret their actions. For one thing I’ve learned is that when a large group acts so decidedly in one way, they end up making the wrong decision. For indeed, once every seller has sold, prices have no choice but to rise. And I believe that’s where uranium shares are now.

    13 bullish points for uranium investors to consider:

    1) A major delay in the uranium bull market has been FULLY priced into uranium shares and therefore, once sentiment begins to shift (as it invariably will) or even if we begin to see uranium stock takeovers at these low prices, uranium shares will be making a bee-line higher!

    2) China is not delaying. In fact, it announced it will proceed with construction of its nuclear power plants. The fast-industrializing nation is simply too busy growing to stop – and with its air full of smog and pollution due to a rapidly growing population there is simply no better clean energy option available to them.

    3) 56 plants are under construction (mostly in China) and 200 more are being planned.

    4) The US announced it will not delay its building plans for nuclear power plants. It is moving ahead!

    5) Over 430 nuclear power plants are in operation, producing 15% of the world’s power.

    6) Coal and uranium combined provide for about 90% of America’s energy needs. Coal supplies the bulk, at 70 percent! What no one in the press reports, is that coal also accounts for the deaths of between 10,000 to 20,000 people per year, while there has not been a single reported death from nuclear power in the US! In 1975, 30 dams in China failed due to flooding and an estimated 230,000 people perished. And yet, no one is calling hydro-power a demon! ☺

    7) Insiders are now buying shares of uranium companies. Insiders only buy for one reason – when they know a company is dirt cheap. For an insider knows the value of their own company better than anyone! In fact, one influential and very-well respected resource investor recently bought 300,000 shares, increasing his stake in a well-known uranium producer by 40 percent! Another investor with a truly amazing reputation for buying bargain resource stocks was busy buying shares of a 30-cent uranium stock for his own personal account. Ted Dixon, CEO of Ink Research (whose company expertly tracks and analyzes executive buying and selling) considers both of these purchases (in addition to some others I’ve noted) significant enough for investors to take notice.

    8) Only 62% of all uranium produced comes from uranium mines. A large part of the remainder comes from plutonium from dismantled Cold War nuclear weapons stockpiles (warheads, etc) and that uranium should only last until … 2013. How’s a major uranium shortage for a near-term catalyst?

    9) “Half of the [uranium demand] growth over the next 10 years is all coming from China,” said Orest Wowkodaw, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity.

    10) Future uranium supply is going to need be secured in advance, for practical reasons. That will create advance pressure on uranium demand!

    11) The World Nuclear Association expects uranium demand to increase 33% from 2010-2030.

    12) By 2012, out of the 10 largest producing uranium mines operating today, SIX will be depleted, two will be in their final stages, one will be upgrading and one will be producing.

    13) Uranium demand will greatly outstrip supply which has peaked! Uranium wealth bubble here we come!

    Charted below is the price of uranium versus the price of gold. We can see uranium is ripe to break up through its down-trend line any day now (my guess – within the next 10 days). Furthermore, the MACD signal on the chart is rising, showing positive divergence, which reveals underlying strength, a subtle momentum change and the likelihood of a move to the upside.

    What I’ve learned and now shared, is that the issues surrounding Japan are not going to affect uranium’s long-term bull market which is just now getting started. In fact, those who choose to be contrarian and buy valuable assets on the cheap, are those who end up profiting handsomely! And that is exactly what happened when investors began acquiring gold and silver-leveraged companies when gold was $400 and silver was $7 or less.

    In fact gold was so out of favour by 1999 that England’s finance minister (and future prime minister) Gordon Brown sold a gold cache containing half of England’s centuries-old treasure (a whopping 400 tons!) for less than $300 an ounce! Warren Buffet who many consider the world’s greatest investor, sold his entire stake of 130 million ounces of silver at $7 an ounce in 2006, settling for a pitiful $2 per ounce profit! Talk about two ‘experts’ who were wrong at the bottom! Clearly, being contrarian is the way to go!

    Near-term outlook:  The amazing chart above (labeled U.TO) shows how quickly uranium panics tend to rebound. This resilience in the price of uranium also shows the tremendous underlying strength in the commodity. What investors should also know is that the last 4 extreme sell-off lows (labeled with green arrows) have resulted in uranium prices rising on average 40 percent! And uranium stocks are likely to provide even more leverage to the upside! At present, we’ve generated another green BUY arrow, meaning there really is no better opportunity for uranium stock investors to buy shares than the one you see today!

    BUY NOW! DON’T WAIT FOR THE MEDIA’S ‘EXPERT’ VOTE OF APPROVAL

    To profit from the explosive uranium bull market ahead, join my elite uranium advisory (HHN) Hedgehog Nuke! In fact, our Alpha Forecasts indicate major gains for us over the next few weeks! And it’s true – the media will be all over this uranium-turnaround story like all others they cover – but unfortunately, their ‘valuable analysis’ will come after the fact. By the time uranium is judged a solid investment again by the masses, our elite uranium stocks will have rocketed higher!

    After all, the media told you tech stocks were going to the moon in 2000, then they told you stocks were never coming back after the 2008 market crash, they missed the gold and silver bull, the oil crash; the list of the media’s misses literally goes on and on. Soon we’ll add Uranium’s Revenge to that list and you’ll have read it here first!

    Don’t forget, we are also sharing with our Hedgehog Nuke (HHN) subscribers our one year uranium forecast, a number of valuable insider buys and sell transactions we’ve noted over the past few weeks and our top rated elite uranium recommendations. Don’t miss out!

    About Nicholas Winton: Nicholas  is editor-in-chief of HedgehogTrader.com whose website provides unique and accurate forecasting and analysis of the broad markets, resource stocks and commodities with contrarianism, insider buying, and his proprietary Alpha Signals. His advisories and uncanny predictions have amazed and enriched resource investors since 2006! He is also a consultant to Hedge Funds and wealth management advisors. You can follow his commentary on his blog, and on his informative and entertaining Twitter feed! http://www.twitter.com/hedgehogtrader ]

    George’s Note: This article contains the opinions of Hedgehog trader and are not an offer to buy or sell securities by AGORACOM.  Having said that, I have followed the HedgeHog Trader newsletter for a couple of months now and find the information to be extremely valuable in helping me formulate my own investment decisions.  If you are looking for a well researched newsletter covering junior resource companies, I strongly suggest considering HHT.

    You can also follow HedgeHog Trader on Twitter 

    PIMCO Shorts US Debt, Goes To Cash – What Does This Mean For Small-Cap Investors?

    Posted by AGORACOM at 8:46 AM on Monday, April 11th, 2011

    The biggest news for small-cap investors to digest – by far – is that PIMCO has not only sold all of its US Debt Holdings, it has gone short.  Find my comments below via Twitter (reverse chronology) and my follow on comments below on how this plays out (theory vs. practically):

    WHAT DOES THIS MEAN – Theoretically?

    On it’s surface (I stress SURFACE), Bill Gross, Founder of PIMCO, is telling us that QE3 isn’t coming and nobody will be stepping into to replace US Fed purchases of US Gov’t debt.  That will lead to – at the very least – a drop in Debt prices, so he is getting the hell out of Dodge.  Simple enough … until you get to my practical comments below.

    First, here are the theoretical (I stress THEORETICAL) follow-on effects:

    INTEREST RATES – Going higher, just a matter of degree

    $USD – Should strengthen with rising rates

    EQUITIES – Should weaken for two reasons: A) Corporate expenses rise on higher borrowing rates = lower profits; B) Investors sell stocks to raise cash. Small-cap resource stocks fall in unison.

    GOLD / SILVER – Should weaken against the US Dollar at the very least, potentially against most major currencies

    US REAL ESTATE – Bombs Away .. my real estate theory since October 2009 remains intact

    WHAT DOES THIS MEAN – Practically?

    Unfortunately, we have learned over the last decade that economic theory can no longer be relied upon.  After all, interest rate easing that began after 9/11 was never intended to crash real estate markets, plunge the planet into a debt crisis and lead to record nominal gold prices … yet here we are despite the “brightest” minds at the US Fed, White House and Central Banks around the world.

    What truly happens isn’t so linear because market manipulation has taken the natural ebb and flow out of all markets – debt, equities, commodities, currencies.  Prices are no longer determined by value – they are determined by confidence or a lack thereof.  As such, what should practically happen is the following:

    CONFIDENCE CRISIS – When US Fed purchases of US debt vanishes and isn’t replaced by the market, a crisis of confidence will commence.

    INTEREST RATES – Will move incrementally higher, then accelerate as US debt prices free fall

    $USD – Will initially strengthen with rising rates and bond nibbling, then drop as investors realize bond/confidence risk is too great.  Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar will do very well.

    EQUITIES – Double Dip probability rises dramatically. Small-cap resource stocks take an initial hit, followed by massive rebound on gold, silver moves (see below).

    GOLD / SILVER- Will initially weaken by as much as 20% /30% respectively on early $USD strength, then rocket towards all-time inflation adjusted highs of ~ $2,200 and $150 within 12 months

    US REAL ESTATE – Bombs Away .. my real estate theory since October 2009 remains intact

    AM I A GENIOUS OR WHAT?

    I’d like to think so – but I don’t think so for two reasons:

    1] Obvious Reason – I could be very wrong and a number of other outcomes could occur.  This time, I think I’m right – but see #2 below

    2]  The Fed / White House / Wall Street Financial Matrix Isn’t Stupid – Despite what many smart people have to say, the powers that be aren’t as stupid as they seem.  They just don’t give a damn about your long-term interests. Despite damage to the current and long-term US economy, I firmly believe they have executed their plan perfectly in their best interests – and they’re not finished ….

    QE3

    It’s coming … 100% … only this time it will require the financial pain I have outlined above in order to politically justify it … but as I posted on March 30th, QE3 Will Be Delayed, Not Terminated.

    At that point, the game plan resumes … but not before Bill Gross and PIMCO step back into US Debt, go long and make a killing on their cash thanks to rising debt prices, which leads to falling rates, much weaker $USD, stabilized stock markets, MUCH higher gold/silver, MUCH higher junior resource stocks.

    Until then, plan accordingly.

    Regards,
    George