Agoracom Blog

The Forecast For Silver In 2020-2021 SPONSOR: Affinity Metals $AAF.ca $SII.ca $TUD.ca $GTT.ca $AMK.ca $OSK.ca $RKR.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 12:25 PM on Friday, May 22nd, 2020
This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Affinity_Metals_Corp_Logo.png

Sponsor: Affinity Metals Corp. (TSX-V: AFF) is a Canadian mineral exploration company building a strong portfolio of mineral projects in North America. The Corporation’s flagship property is the drill ready Regal Property near Revelstoke, BC where Affinity Metals is making preparations for a spring drill program to test two large Z-TEM anomalies. Click Here for More Info

This has been a tumultuous year for investors, with Brexit, negative bond yields, a global trade war, an oil price crash and, of course, a worldwide pandemic that’s ushered in what’s expected to be the worst recession since the Great Depression. The question, then, is whether our money can be safely invested anywhere.

Fortunately, many experts are bullish about precious metals. Although the price of gold has risen roughly $400 per ounce in the past year, some analysts suggest that silver may be the better buy in the medium- and long-term.

As the CEO and founder of an online alternative investment brokerage, I’m constantly keeping my finger on the pulse of what precious metals experts forecast for the years ahead. In this article, I’ll take a closer look at the silver forecast for 2020 and 2021 to give investors an idea of what they can expect.

How Has Silver Fared So Far In 2020?

Let’s first assess the recent performance of silver bullion during this time of uncertainty. Although the price of silver has fallen since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, its value has held considerably well compared to the U.S. stock market. During the worst of the stock sell-off in mid-March, May silver futures dropped $0.48 to roughly $12.34 per ounce, according to kitco.com, while the S&P 500 had fallen 27% year to date on March 18.

Virtually every asset price fell in March due to the “sell what you can” mentality many investors held during this frantic period of uncertainty driven by the coronavirus and an oil price war. However, allocating a portion of your portfolio to silver bullion would have softened the blow caused by the coronavirus sell-off.

Is Silver Susceptible To Price Suppression?

It’s worth noting neither the U.S. federal government nor the Federal Reserve system can assert significant control over the price of silver. In 2019, the U.S. accounted for an estimated 3.6% of global silver production (980 metric tons), compared to Mexico and Peru, which produced 6,300 and 3,800 metric tons, respectively. Therefore, the price of silver is ultimately beholden to global market forces rather than domestic price manipulation.

Silver And Industry

Silver is a metal with many industrial applications. In 2018, silver was heavily utilized for industrial manufacturing — in particular, for use in photovoltaic solar panels, brazing alloys and solders, electronics and ethylene oxide. This figure doesn’t include silver used in the production of jewelry, which required another 200 million-plus ounces that year.

What’s particularly noteworthy about silver’s industrial usage is that it’s prominent in the production of solar panels and batteries, which bodes well for the metal’s long-term price. The worldwide market for solar energy was expected to rise in value from $52 billion in 2018 to $223 billion by 2026.

Key Factors That Could Influence The Price Of Silver In The Near Term

In an article forecasting the price of silver in 2020, Capital.com’s Valerie Medleva mentioned that silver tends to perform poorly when the U.S. dollar is strong. The article went on to note that in Q4 2018, the price of silver fell 14% when the U.S. dollar performed well.

Although the U.S. dollar is currently strong, the Fed has recently cut interest rates to effectively zero, which could weaken the dollar, so it remains to be seen how this will impact the price of silver through the year. A strong dollar generally signals a weak silver price, and though there are exceptions, such as we saw in 2018, high interest rates tend to mean higher silver prices. In other words, if the dollar weakens, we could have two competing forces pushing the price of silver up and down simultaneously.

Regarding supply, a January 2020 report by Scotiabank determined the global supply of silver is “fundamentally oversupplied” but remains attractive to investors as a gold proxy. The authors note that silver can play an important role as a currency hedge, and upside growth is expected due to modest increased industrial demand. Overall, the report is mixed about silver prices for 2020, estimating possible outcomes of $15-$23 per ounce, depending on gold performance and demand drivers. The authors estimated that $17.50-$21 per ounce is the fair, market-aligned range for silver in the year ahead.

And according to technical analysts at FX Empire, silver is trending to the upside as price pullbacks throughout April have been met with quick buys from investors looking to fill their pockets with the white metal. They note a critical resistance point at $15.50 per ounce. If silver settles above that mark, that will open the path for it stabilizing around the $16.50 level seen before the crisis.

The Takeaway: A Worthwhile Hold But Not Without Risk

The general consensus among market watchers, researchers and precious metals experts is that the long-term forecast for silver is positive. Although no asset is without downside risk, the case for silver is supported by heavy industrial use as well as its strategic importance as a currency hedge during times of uncertainty. However, the strength of the dollar will play an important role in silver’s performance.

In short, silver is an alternative investment that’s a relatively safe option in a highly volatile market. Many analysts are optimistic about silver prices in the short and medium term. Regardless of how silver performs in the months ahead, the metal remains a strategic hold for many investors looking to minimize risk, diversify their portfolio and safeguard their wealth during times of heightened volatility.

SOURCE: https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2020/05/21/the-forecast-for-silver-in-2020-2021/#4b2bd9e05cac

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Comments are closed.