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Copper, The Most Critical Metal SPONSOR: Candente Copper $DNT.ca $CN.ca $FCX.ca $TECK.ca $FSUGY $PER.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 10:20 AM on Tuesday, December 8th, 2020
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SPONSOR: Candente Copper owns 100% of the Canariaco copper project, which includes the Feasibility stage Canariaco Norte deposit. Canariaco is included in Goldman Sachs 84 Top Copper Projects Worldwide and Fortesque is a 19% owner of Candente.

Copper ore from La Viñita, Valle del Elqui, Chile. (Image by S. Rae, Wikimedia Commons)

  • Over 200 copper mines are expected to run out of ore before 2035, with not enough new mines in the pipeline to take their place.

In 2018, before the trade war between the US and China put the boots on copper demand, and covid-19 mine closures/ abandoned expansion plans crimped supply, we made a bold prediction: that copper supply is NOT going to be able to keep up with demand in the long-term.  Even with expansions at existing mines and the ramp-up of the relatively few new copper mines like Cobre Panama, Radomiro Tomic and Toquepalain, it will not be enough to meet the onslaught of demand that is coming from China as it continues to modernize and urbanize, and electric vehicles, which use three times as much copper as regular ones. In 2016 Chinese automakers sold 28 million cars. If China follows through on its promise to go 100% electric, that would mean 2,380,000,000 kilograms of copper. At the current production rate of 20 million tonnes a year, that’s 119 years worth of copper! Just to produce enough copper for electric cars in China.

Do we expect 100% EV penetration? No. But the shift to electrification of our transportation system is real, it’s not going to go away or stop. Because it’s as real as the shift from wood to coal to fossil fuels and now to lithium. That means massive new copper supplies are needed just for Chinese EVs, whatever the EV penetration eventually turns out to be. And remember there’s the rest of the world to supply for EVs, charging infrastructure, and all of copper’s other uses.

Bottom line? We gotta find more copper. 

‘Future-facing metals’ 

That sentiment is clearly shared by some of the world’s largest copper companies, who are doing everything they can to expand existing mines and acquire prospective new deposits, as they seek to replace their rapidly depleting copper reserves and resources. 

In 2017 the Chilean government approved a $2.5 billion expansion of BHP’s Spence copper mine – the diversified miner’s second largest copper mine behind Escondida, the biggest copper operation in the world. 

That followed closely behind BHP’s 2016 decision to raise its annual exploration budget by 29%, allocating nearly all of its $900 million budget to finding new copper and oil deposits – two commodities the world’s largest miner thinks it needs to bolster future growth. Potential acquisition targets include copper deposits in Peru, the US, Canada and South Australia. 

In February of this year, chief executive Mike Henry said the company needs more “future-facing metals” such as copper. Last year, BHP became the top shareholder in SolGold, an Australian miner developing the Cascabel copper-gold project in Ecuador. 

Last week, BHP announced it is ramping up work on the Spence mine expansion, to reach its production objective in the first half of 2021 (the project has been delayed due to covid-19 restrictions). 

It’s interesting to note that BHP is planning to “go green” at Spence, with a focus on running the operation entirely on renewable energy by 2022. The Melbourne, Australia-based company also aims to stop drawing water from aquifers in Chile by 2030 – a reference to the problems mining companies are facing getting enough water in the bone-dry Atacama desert of northern Chile, the base of operations for several major copper and lithium mines. 

The $2.5 billion expansion contemplates a concentrator plant to increase production, and extend the life of the deposit by about 20 years. The new mine will also feature an $800 million desalination plant located in the port city of Mejillones, about 60 km north of Antofagasta, that treats and pumps seawater at 1,000 liters per second. 

BHP isn’t the only large mining firm taking a serious look at copper. Barrick Gold is interested in diversifying into the red metal from the yellow. CEO Mark Bristow sees Indonesia’s Grasberg, the second-largest copper mine in the world, as a potential buy-out target for Barrick. The company already owns the Porgera mine in Papua New Guinea, which borders Indonesia to the east, with China’s Zijin Mining. In May, Bristow told the Financial Times he was keen to expand in Asia, despite a recent dispute with the government of PNG over a renewal of Porgera’s license, which led Barrick and Zijin to shut the mine.

Meanwhile the CEO of Anglo American, another major diversified miner, indicated that South Africa would be a good jurisdiction to explore for base metals. “We will explore base metals across South Africa… We are already in Zambia and other places, we want to do more in South Africa so we are looking for adjustments in legislation there,” Mark Cutifani said during the 2020 Joburg Mining Indaba conference.

Copper, nickel, lead and zinc are among the base metals Anglo American is focusing its global discovery strategy in greenfield and brownfield projects.  

Running out of ore 

Why are major mining companies so intent on securing new supplies of copper? Quite simply, they’re running out of ore. 

As we have reported, without new capital investments, Commodities Research Unit (CRU) predicts global copper mined production will drop from the current 20 million tonnes to below 12Mt by 2034, leading to a supply shortfall of more than 15Mt. Over 200 copper mines are expected to run out of ore before 2035, with not enough new mines in the pipeline to take their place.

Some of the largest copper mines are seeing their reserves dwindle; they are having to dramatically slow production due to major capital-intensive projects to move operations from open pit to underground. 

Grasberg in Indonesia, the world’s second-largest copper mine, is emblematic of the problems copper miners are facing. The mine began as a large open pit but after decades of extracting the easy-to-reach ore is gone and future production is expected to come from a deep cave deposit known as the Deep Mill Level Zone. Copper concentrate exports have plunged dramatically as operations shift from open pit to underground.

Major South American copper miners have also been forced to cut production. State-owned Codelco has said it will scale back an ambitious $40-billion plan to upgrade its mines over the next decade, after reporting a drop in earnings, a prolonged strike at its Chuquicamata mine, and lower metals prices. The world’s largest copper company also said it will reduce spending through 2028 by 20%, or $8 billion. 

Chuquicamata is expected to see a 40% fall in production by 2021. A $5 billion expansion, moving from open pit to underground, will take five years to reach full output of 300,000 tonnes per annum – this is not new production. 

Shipments from BHP’s Escondida mine took a hit in 2019 due to operations moving from open pit to underground. The largest copper mine on the planet is expected to take until 2022 to re-gain full production, again not new production. 

These cuts are significant to the global copper market because Chile is the world’s biggest copper-producing nation — supplying 30% of the world’s red metal. Adding insult to injury, for producers, copper grades have declined about 25% in Chile over the last decade, bringing less ore to market. 

Country-wide protests over transit prices and perceived inequality have disrupted mining supply chains. The social unrest, along with a newly invigorated resource nationalism, has spooked would-be foreign investors in a country that only a few years ago was touted as an economic tiger. 

Chile also has problems with water. The country’s underground reservoirs need to be recharged by rainfall and snowmelt from the Andes, but a study found more water was leaving the salars (salt flats) than returning, prompting water restrictions affecting both lithium and copper mines in the extremely arid Salar de Atacama, in northern Chile. In 2019 Chile’s water authority said it would double the number of areas off-limits to mining, from 30 to at least 70. 

Escondida will stop drawing fresh water from the salt flat. Instead, the huge mine will bring desalinated water from the coast, where in 2018 BHP spent $3.4 billion on a desalination plant. Two pipelines transport water a steep 3,200m above sea level. 

Antofagasta’s Zaldivar mine is nearing its mine life at 2029, and may be forced to close earlier if its water permits to draw water from the salar are not renewed. 

A 2019 report by Moody’s Investors Service said that some of the worst droughts in half a century have led to tougher environmental regulations that are hiking miners’ costs and risks. Among the countries with mines exposed to decreasing water availability are Peru, Chile, Australia, South Africa and Mongolia. 

On top of all this, there is the ongoing threat of strikes at South American copper mines which every year strip out some percentage of output. In a recent article, Bloomberg reports how a confluence of factors, including copper prices at a seven-year high, productivity gains (Chile is producing at similar levels to last year with fewer workers) and weak local currencies, are swelling industry margins, emboldening unions to down tools and ask for more pay/ benefits. Look for labor disruptions next year, when 31 contracts are due to expire in Chile, including at BHP’s Escondida, hit by a 44-day strike in 2017. 

What about new copper mines? Surely mineral exploration companies are identifying new ore bodies, cueing up the next generation of copper producers? 

Well, they are trying. Problem is, they are having to go further afield and dig deeper to find copper at the grades needed to economically produce copper products for end-users. This usually means riskier jurisdictions that are often ruled by shaky governments with an itchy trigger finger on the resource nationalism button. Combine that with production problems and you have the makings of a supply shortage.

In fact, new supply is concentrated in just five mines – Chile’s Escondida, Spence and Quebrada Blanca, Cobre Panama and the Kamoa-Kakula project in the DRC. And while these mines are expected to account for 80% of base-case output increases until 2022-23, their profitability depends on the copper price staying above $5,000 a tonne, according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The current copper pipeline is the lowest it’s been in a century, and not improving. In 2018 Colin Hamilton, the director of commodities research at BMO Capital Markets, said that after the delivery of first copper from Cobre Panama (285-310,000t per year), BMO doesn’t see the next batch of +200,000-tonnes projects until 2022-23 — “when the likes of Kamoa (501,000t per year), Oyu Tolgoi Phase 2, and QB2 (316,000t per year) are likely to offer meaningful supply growth.” 

Electrification 2.0

Copper’s widespread use in construction wiring & piping, and electrical transmission lines, make it a key metal for civil infrastructure renewal. 

The continued move towards electric vehicles is a huge copper driver. In EVs, copper is a major component used in the electric motor, batteries, inverters, wiring and in charging stations. An average electric vehicle contains about 4X as much copper as regular vehicles. Electrification includes not only cars, but trucks, trains, delivery vans, construction equipment and two-wheeled vehicles like e-bikes and scooters. 

The latest use for copper is in renewable energy, particularly in photovoltaic cells used for solar power, and wind turbines. The base metal is also a key component of the global 5G buildout. Even though 5G is wireless, its deployment involves a lot more fiber and copper cable to connect equipment.

The big question is, will there be enough copper for future electrification needs, globally? And remember, in addition to electrification, copper will still be required for all the standard uses, including copper wiring used in construction and telecommunications, copper piping, and copper needed for the core components of airplanes, trains, cars, trucks and boats. 

The short answer is no, not without a massive acceleration of copper production worldwide. 

A recent research report from Jefferies Research LLC concluded: “The copper market is heading into a multiyear period of deficits and high demand from deployment of renewable energy and electric vehicles. Secular demand driver in copper is electric passenger vehicles as the average EV is about four times as copper intensive as the average ICE automobile. Renewable power systems are at least five times more copper intensive than conventional power.” 

President-elect Joe Biden plans a major shift away from fossil fuels to wind and solar power, and from gas/ diesel vehicles to EVs. In what would be a significant scale-up of President Obama’s 2009 plan to electrify the US transportation system, a kind of “electrification 2.0”, Biden aims to spend up to $1.7 trillion over 10 years on boosting renewable power and speeding introduction of electric vehicles. 

Dubbed “Clean Energy Revolution”, the plan calls for installation of 500,000 electric vehicle charging stations by 2030, and would provide $400 billion for R&D in clean technology.

One of the largest manufacturers of public charging stations, ChargePoint, is targeting a 50-fold increase in its global network of loading spots by the mid-2020s. The group in which German companies BMW, Daimler and Siemens hold stakes, aims to operate 2.5 million charging points by 2025, from 53,000 in 2018. A Level 2 charging station requires 7 kg of copper, a direct current fast charger (DCFC) or Level 3 station uses 25 kg. 

BloombergNEF forecasts by 2040 there will be a need for 12 million charging points, each requiring about 10 kg of copper. The number of EV charging stations recently passed the one million mark.   

Biden has also promised a $1.3 trillion infrastructure improvement plan, including: a $50 billion investment in repairs to roads and bridges; $10 billion for transit construction in poor areas of the country; a doubling of BUILD and INFRA grants, and more funding for the US Army Corps of Engineers.

The plan includes investments in high-speed rail, public transit, bicycling, school construction, expansion of rural broadband, and replacement of pipes and other water infrastructure — all of which will require millions more tonnes of copper, along with other infrastructure metals such as nickel, zinc and aluminum. 

Is this going to happen for the US? Well if it is, it isn’t going to come cheap, as existing metal sources run dry. Across the Atlantic, the UK government has set a target of replacing all of its 31.5 million cars with electrics by 2050. A team of scientists led by the Natural History Museum’s head of earth sciences, Professor Richard Herrington, took the government to task and calculated how much raw materials that number of EVs would require.  

The researchers found that to build 31.5 million EVs would take a jaw-dropping 207,900 tonnes of cobalt, 264,600 tonnes of lithium carbonate, at least 7,200 tonnes of neodymium and dysprosium, and 2,362,500 tonnes of copper — about 10% of global production. Just mining the amount of raw materials required to replace 2 billion cars globally would require four times the United Kingdom’s total annual electrical output. 

Prof. Herrington told AutoExpress that, while there is urgency in cutting carbon dioxide emissions, “society needs to understand that there is a raw material cost of going green”. 

US and UK copper needs, of course, have to be put in context with global demand for the essential base metal.Total copper mine production worldwide from 2006 to 2019 (in 1,000 metric tons)

According to BloombergNEF, there are currently about 7 million electric vehicles in the world today. By 2040, they estimate around 30% of the world’s passenger cars will be electric. To me that’s a conservative and reasonable number. It means 500 million EVs will be on the road in 20 years, out of a total vehicle fleet of 1.6 billion. If each EV contains 85 kg of copper, that is 42,500,000,000 kg, or 42,500,000 tonnes of copper, roughly twice the current volume of copper produced by all of the world’s copper mines. 

Just so we’re clear — in 20 years, BloombergNEF says copper miners need to double the amount of global copper production (20Mt), just to meet the demand for a 30% penetration rate of electric vehicles. That means an extra million tonnes a year, over and above what we mine now, every year for the next 20 years!  The world’s copper miners need to discover the equivalent of two Kamoas, at 500,000t, each and every year, while keeping current production at 20Mt. 

Remember we still need to cover all the copper demanded by electrical, construction, power generation, charging stations, renewable energy, 5G, high-speed rail, etc., plus infrastructure maintenance/ buildout of new infrastructure. 

That might be another 5-7Mt. So not only is there a 20Mt increase in copper usage required for a 30% EV penetration, but another (we estimate) 5-7Mt increase to meet demand for all of copper’s other applications. To keep up, the industry will need to find an additional two to three Kamoas a year, each producing 500,000t, for the next 20 years! Remember – Over 200 copper mines are expected to run out of ore before 2035, with not enough new mines in the pipeline to take their place. It’s going to be hard enough to keep up the current 20mt per year let alone add so much more production. 

Where is this new, and replacement, supply going to come from? When copper becomes so rare it hits $10,000 a tonne, what’s going to happen to 30% EV penetration? High-speed rail? 5G? We suggest that without new copper deposits, these well-intentioned plans are in jeopardy. 

Did we mention China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), consisting of a vast network of railways, pipelines, highways and ports that would extend west through the mountainous former Soviet republics and south to Pakistan, India and southeast Asia? 

Research by the International Copper Association found BRI is likely to increase demand for copper in over 60 Eurasian countries to 6.5 million tonnes by 2027, a 22% increase from 2017 levels.

Another report by Roskill forecasts total copper consumption will exceed 43 million tonnes by 2035, driven by population and GDP growth, urbanization and electricity demand. Remember total world mine production in 2019 was only 20Mt. In many countries it takes 20 years to go from discovery through permitting to mining. 

Copper goes critical 

But there’s a weird thing happening. The message of a looming copper shortage that could bring the global electrification shift to a screeching halt, and/or make copper so dear that only the rich can afford to buy finished products made from it, like EVs, isn’t getting through to the mining audience, because copper is not considered a critical mineral. 

That term is reserved for minerals like lithium, cobalt, graphite, rare earths etc., which despite their presumed rarity, are actually fairly common. What makes them critical, is the fact that North America (and Europe) have virtually no domestic supply; without mines and a pipeline of deposits under development, and the smelters and know-how to process them, we are hopelessly reliant on foreign countries. Our supply chains are vulnerable and can be exploited at will by the countries that dominate production, through policies like domestic ore beneficiation, export restrictions, tariffs and quotas. 

For years North America didn’t bother to explore for these minerals and build mines. Globalization brought with it the mentality that all countries are free traders, and friends. Dirty mining and processing? NIMBY. Let China do it, let the DRC do it, let whoever do it. This has to change, if the US and Canada are to regain control of their critical minerals stockpiles. 

For example, according to the US Geological Survey, of the 7 million tonnes of cobalt reserves available globally, nearly half — 3.6Mt — are in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The DRC is the world’s leading cobalt supplier by far, in 2019 producing 100,000 tonnes of the EV battery ingredient. China locked up supply from the DRC with infrastructure for off-take, brings it home and refines it to sell to the world. But there is a lot of cobalt found elsewhere. Australia has 310,000 JORC-compliant tons of cobalt but only mined 5,100t last year. Canada has a reserve of 300,000t but only produced 3,000t. Of the 55,000 tonnes of cobalt reserves identified in the US, only 0.01% was mined in 2019, or 550t. 

North America is well endowed with huge, quality rare earth deposits, enough to supply us with decades and decades of production. Examples include Commerce Resources’ (TSXV:CCE) Ashram rare earths deposit in Quebec, and Ucore Rare Metals’ (TSXV:UCU) Bokan Mountain REE project in Alaska. Graphite One (TSX.V:GPH) has an excellent graphite project in Alaska. 

What we lack is processing and larger-scale manufacturing, ie. nearly all of the world’s mined rare earth oxides are processed in China; only very recently has REE processing started happening outside that country: 

  • Mountain Pass in California expects to start processing REEs by the end of 2020.
  • Lynas signed a joint venture agreement with Blue Line Corp. to build a rare earths processing plant in Texas.
  • Saskatchewan is setting up a processing facility.

(Europe is also starting to get smart and deal with its lack of critical minerals mined and processed on the continent. The EU recently launched the European Raw Materials Alliance, a partnership of over 300 companies, business associations and governments, that will focus on breaking Europe’s dependence on imports from China and other resource-rich countries. Analysts estimate the group of 29 nations will need about 60 times more lithium and 15 times more cobalt for EV batteries and energy storage by 2050.)

Graphite is another mineral that is mined and processed under a near monopoly by China but exists in large quantities elsewhere. According to the USGS, China in 2019 produced nearly three-quarters of the world’s graphite — 700,000 tonnes of the 1.1Mt total. The country indeed has a large proportion of global graphite reserves, 73Mt out of 300Mt. But China doesn’t host the majority of the world’s graphite. In fact Turkey has more, 90Mt, yet last year only mined 2,000t. 25 million tonnes are held by Mozambique but the African country only produced 100,000t. Brazil has nearly as much graphite as China, 72Mt, but in 2019, produced just 96,000 tonnes, about 13% of China’s mine production. Other countries with significant graphite reserves, are India (8Mt), Madagascar (1.6Mt), Mexico (3.Mt), Tanzania (18Mt) and Vietnam (7.6Mt). 

Certainly the above-mentioned metals, and the rest of the 23 mineral commodities identifed by the US Department of the Interior, are critical, in that they are all important to the country’s economic and military security. You cannot, for example, make a lithium-ion battery without lithium, graphite and cobalt. But most of these metals are labeled critical because so much quantity comes from China, Russia or the DRC. Too much supply is coming from one country and China is where most of the refining is done. When we start mining and processing here in the West, or work with our mining country allies, some degree of ‘criticality’ will be removed. Why can’t we start mining all these minerals here? We have these materials in North America, South America, Australia and to a lesser extent, Europe. The next step is unfettered access and the creation of strong supply chains to get these metals from mine to market. 

Copper, however, is different. Arguably, the red metal is the most critical of all critical metals, because of its necessity in electrification, and the fact that there is an actual shortage of copper coming. 

There is no shift from fossil fuels to green energy without the red metal, which has no substitutes for its uses in EVs (electric motors and wiring, batteries, inverters, charging stations) wind and solar energy, and 5G.  

Even with a 30% penetration of EVs, a relatively conservative estimate, we need to find another 20 million tonnes per year over 20 years. 

On Tuesday, Nov. 24 copper prices hit a fresh 2020 pinnacle of $3.52 per pound on the Comex in New York. The red metal’s best performance in seven years was on the strength of Chinese manufacturing and construction expanding at its fastest in a decade. The country’s manufacturing PMI for November, seen as a leading indicator of copper usage, rose to 52.1 while the Caixin manufacturing PMI, which includes both large and small firms, jumped to a 10-year high of 54.9. The construction index leapt from 59.8 in October to 60.5.

Iron ore has also been on a tear of late. The steelmaking ingredient hit $132.13 a tonne last Tuesday, a six-year high. 

The numbers are so good, some market observers are pulling up charts from the “mining supercycle”. Reuters quotes Goldman Sachs predicting a return to the “structural bull market” of the 2000s, when most mined commodity prices got a lift due to demand (especially in China and India) outstripping available supplies. In a report the investment bank states: 

“Covid is already ushering in a new era of policies aimed at social need instead of financial stability [which] will likely create cyclically stronger, more commodity-intensive economic growth, that should create the elusive cyclical upswing in demand.”

Metal traders say copper is looking like it did at the start of the ’03 supercycle start, having surged this year on a wave of bullish factors including a weakened dollar, optimism over covid vaccines, a move toward low-carbon power sources, and virus-related supply disruptions in the key copper-producing countries of Chile, Peru and Mexico. Prices are up more than 70% from a mid-March low, and Morgan Stanley predicts a substantial increase next year, to an average $7,716 a ton ($3.85/lb) in the fourth quarter. 

However unlike the previous supercycle, which depended on China, Goldman says the next structural bull market will be driven by spending on green energy, for which copper is a key ingredient: 

“Spending on green infrastructure could be as significant as the BRIC (Brazil-Russia-India-China) investment boom of that decade while the redistributive push in developed markets “is likely to lead to a large boost to consumer spending, comparable to the lending-fuelled consumption increase in the 2000s”.

The path of least resistance to the price of copper is, imo, higher.

SOURCE: https://www.mining.com/web/copper-the-most-critical-metal/

VIDEO – Candente Copper $DNT.ca Has A Goldman Sachs Ranking, $3.50 #Copper And One Of The World’s Largest Iron Ore Producers Behind It $CN.ca $FCX.ca $TECK.ca $FSUGY $PER.ca

Posted by AGORACOM-JC at 9:23 PM on Sunday, December 6th, 2020
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When Goldman Sachs Says your copper deposit is one of the top 80 projects waiting to be developed worldwide, investors should pay very close attention.

That’s especially true when copper is trading at $USD 3.50/pound, a level not seen since 2013, when Candente Copper (DNT:TSX) was valued at $250 million.

Candente owns Cañariaco Norte, a large, economic, copper ore body in Peru waiting to be mined.

Highlights are as follows.

  • 100% owned feasibility-stage porphyry copper deposit; a single, contiguous, open-pit mineable deposit of:
    • 7.5B pounds Measured and Indicated and can be mined for 22 years once in production.
    • Once in production Canariaco is in the lowest quartile of production costs for projects waiting to be developed.
    • Operating costs of US$0.988 per pound of copper
    • Capable of generating annual production of 262,000,000lbs of copper, 39,000 oz gold & 911,000 oz silver over initial mine life of 22 yrs(@ 95,000 tpd).

WHO ELSE BELIEVES IN CANDENTE?

Fortescue is one of the largest global iron ore producers in the world and recently increased its strategic ownership in Candente to 19.9%.

With a market cap of just $20 million, Candente is now beginning the process of reclaiming its former glory with plans to put Cañariaco Norte into production.

Watch this great interview with Candente CEO Joanne Freeze.

Copper Shines, Gold Struggles as Investors Chase Riskier Assets SPONSOR: Candente Copper $DNT.ca $CN.ca $FCX.ca $TECK.ca $FSUGY $PER.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 12:01 PM on Thursday, December 3rd, 2020
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SPONSOR: Candente Copper owns 100% of the Canariaco copper project, which includes the Feasibility stage Canariaco Norte deposit. Canariaco is included in Goldman Sachs 84 Top Copper Projects Worldwide and Fortesque is a 19% owner of Candente.

  • Industrial metal boosted by China’s economic rebound and ‘green stimulus’ expectations

(Bloomberg) — Copper powered to a seven-year high as the rush for growth played out in metals markets, with traditional haven gold dropping amid growing optimism for an end to the coronavirus pandemic.

Bullion extended losses below $1,800 an ounce and copper added to a four-week surge on bets the looming roll-out of Covid-19 vaccines will help drive an economic recovery. The moves deepen a wider pivot into risk assets in November, with global stocks heading for a record month.

“Robust price rallies in industrial commodities like copper point to an ongoing rotation from a risk-averse to risk-on asset market regime,” Citigroup Inc. analysts including Aakash Doshi wrote in an emailed note. Gold faces a “more uncertain path in 2021” as global growth prospects improve, they said.

The latest boost for risk appetite came over the weekend, when two of America’s top health officials said a vaccine will be deployed across the U.S. before the end of the year. Elsewhere, an index of China’s manufacturing sector rose to a three-year high on Monday and the country is taking steps to boost domestic consumption, including of autos and home appliances.

“Macro factors are driving copper trading,” Chinese brokerage Jinrui Futures Co. wrote in note on Monday. “The market sentiment is really bullish right now amid a combination of vaccines, economic recovery, and a smooth U.S. presidential transition.”

  • Copper rose as much as 2.6% to $7,692.50 a ton, the highest since March 2013. The metal traded at $7,634 by 9:55 a.m. London time and is heading for the biggest monthly gain since 2016.
  • Iron ore also joined the rally, with Singapore futures up 1.3% and heading for a monthly gain of more than 11%. Prices briefly spiked more than 9% to touch $140 a ton, the highest since futures began trading in 2013, before swiftly paring gains.
  • Gold fell 0.8% to $1,773.59 an ounce, on track for a fourth straight monthly loss. Silver dropped 1.8%.

Bullion is suffering as investors reverse this year’s hunt for havens amid deep economic ruptures and a fractious U.S. general election. But other factors that favor gold — ultra-dovish monetary policy and the risk of steeper inflation — remain in place.

”The current weakness of gold is all the more remarkable given that the U.S. dollar is likewise weak,” Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank AG, said in an emailed note. “After the price fell below the support level at $1,800 on Friday, the technical picture became even more gloomy, which no doubt has prompted further short-term-oriented investors to withdraw.”

SOURCE: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/copper-shines-gold-struggles-as-investors-chase-riskier-assets-1.1529338

Candente Copper $DNT.ca Agreement Signed with Forte Copper on Don Gregorio Copper-Gold Project, Peru $DNT.ca $CN.ca $FCX.ca $TECK.ca $FSUGY $PER.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 8:23 AM on Monday, November 30th, 2020

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Nov. 30, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Candente Copper Corp. (TSX:DNT, BVL:DNT) (“Candente Copper”, “Company”) is pleased to announce that the Company has entered into an Assignment Agreement (“AA”) with Forte Copper Corp. (“Forte Copper”), on the Don Gregorio copper-gold porphyry project.

The Company entered into an Option Agreement on the Don Gregorio project with Forte Copper (previously known as Plan B Minerals) in 2017. The recently signed Assignment Agreement allows Forte Copper to move ahead with applications for drilling permits.

Under the Assignment and Option Agreements Forte Copper has the right to earn a 60% interest in the Don Gregorio property by completing the following terms:

  1. Making payments of US$500,000 to Candente; and
  2. Drilling 10,000 metres within three years of receiving drilling permits of which 5,000 metres must be drilled within two years; Forte Copper may pay $100/metre cash in lieu of metres not drilled.
  3. The Assignment Agreement is for 5 years such that if the 10,000 metres have not been drilled (including cash paid in lieu), then the property must be returned to Candente Copper Corp.

To date, the Company has received payments totalling: US$100,000 and reimbursements for fees for annual mineral rights totalling US$41,540.

Candente Copper acquired the Don Gregorio from the Peruvian government in a competitive auction in 2008. Don Gregorio covers a mineralized (copper-gold) porphyry system, that occurs within the same geological trend as Yanacocha, Cerro Corona and Cañariaco.

Don Gregorio (previously referred to as La Huaca) was discovered by Ingemmet (Peruvian government geological survey) in 1974 during a regional exploration program. In 1977, 8 holes were drilled to a maximum of 107 metres (“m”) and intersected o.22 to o.56% Cu over 15m to 100m, averaging 50m and bottoming in mineralization. These holes were not analysed for gold.

In 1992, a Newmont Buenaventura Joint Venture (“JV”) discovered a gold (“Au”) zone in surface samples covering 200m by 700m coincident with copper (“Cu”) previously delineated in a north-northwesterly trending zone. In 1995, the Newmont-Buenaventura JV drilled 4 holes in 800m. These 4 holes were also mineralized to final depths.

The 12 holes totalling 1,642m drilled to date indicate copper and gold mineralization occurs over a minimum of 400m vertically from 2,600 to 2,200 metres in elevation.

Mineral intercepts in the historic drilling include 153.3m of 0.394 percent (“%”) Cu & 0.18 grams per tonne (“g/t “) Au.

Surface samples collected to date include assays of:

  • 20m of 1.23% Cu and 0.26 g/t Au
  • 9m at 1.13% Cu and 0.90 g/t Au
  • 3m at 1.36% Cu and 0.84 g/t Au

About Candente Copper
Candente Copper is a mineral exploration company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties. The Company is currently focused on its 100% owned Cañariaco project, which includes the Feasibility stage Cañariaco Norte deposit as well as the Cañariaco Sur deposit and Quebrada Verde prospect, located within the western Cordillera of the Peruvian Andes in the Department of Lambayeque in Northern Peru.

About Forte Copper
Forte Copper is a private company that announced a go public RTO transaction with Collingwood Resources on August 18, 2020. Through its wholly owned Peruvian subsidiaries, Forte either owns, controls or, has an option to control three prospective gold and copper exploration projects in Peru. Forte Copper’s business strategy is focused on exploration target development, testing and resolution, and resource development within prominent and under-explored copper and gold regions of Peru.

Joanne C. Freeze, P.Geo., CEO, is the Qualified Persons as defined by National Instrument 43-101 for the projects discussed above. She has reviewed and approved the contents of this release.

This news release may contain forward-looking statements including but not limited to comments regarding timing and content of upcoming work programs, geological interpretations, receipt of property titles, potential mineral recovery processes, etc. Forward-looking statements address future events and conditions and therefore involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those currently anticipated in such statements. Candente Copper relies upon litigation protection for forward-looking statements.

On behalf of the Board of Candente Copper Corp.

“Joanne C. Freeze” P.Geo.
President, CEO and Director
___________________________________
For further information please contact:

[email protected]
www.candentecopper.com

Client Feature: The 4 Reasons Goldman Sachs Believes Candente Copper $DNT.ca is a World Class Company $CN.ca $FCX.ca $TECK.ca $FSUGY $PER.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 12:56 PM on Friday, November 13th, 2020

The 4 Reasons Goldman Sachs Believes Candente Copper is a World Class Company

Candente Copper (TSX: DNT, BVL: DNT) owns 100% of a copper deposit in Peru and has big plans to become a miner.

Candente owns a large, economic, copper ore body in Peru waiting to be mined. Cañariaco Norte is a 100% owned feasibility-stage porphyry copper deposit.

Simply put, it is a mountainous rock body that holds 7.5 billion pounds of copper and has had multiple scientific studies propelling it along the way toward production. Strengthened by Goldman Sachs belief it is one of the top 80 copper deposits yet to be exploited and strategically guided by Australian Iron Ore giant Fortescue’s 19% inside ownership, Candente has the lowest quartile production costs that make it an intriguing project today and a must have for tomorrow.

 Reasons Why Candente Copper is A Top Small Cap Copper Company

1. Goldman Sachs has Canariacao Norte listed as one of the top 80 projects waiting to be developed worldwide and is top 42 in South America. Mining projects take a long time to be developed due to the strict standards required to prove metal content in the ground, which Candente has proven it has tremendous amounts of.

A single, contiguous, open-pit mineable deposit of 7.5B pounds Measured and Indicated and can be mined for 22 years once in production speaks to the stability of the project 

2. Supported Strategically by Fortesque’s 19.9% Ownership 

Fortesque is recognized as a global leader in the mining industry. Fortesque holds 19% Candente and became involved to advance Canariaco further into development. Fortesque committed 1$Million in January 2020 with an eye toward production and is considered a strategic investor, which means they have a long-term timeline for joint exploitation of the asset.

Fortescue is one of the largest global iron ore producers, recognized for its culture, innovation and industry-leading development of world class infrastructure and mining assets in Western Australia. This is truly a partnership which seeks to equally progress Canariaco into development and Candente into production status. The accepted odds for a discovery to find its way into production is about 1 in 1000, and speaks to the sheer difficulty of the exercise.

Candente is close to the finish line and Fortesque is there for the final push.

3. Canariaco is in the lowest quartile of production costs

Once in production Canariaco is in the lowest quartile of production costs for projects waiting to be developed Operating costs of US$0.988 per pound of copper

 Canariaco has 7.5Billion pounds of copper measured and indicated capable of generating annual production of 262,000,000lbs of copper, 39,000 oz gold & 911,000 oz silver over initial mine life of 22 yrs(@ 95,000 tpd). A long stable mine life is what attracts quality investors like Fortesque.

Canariaco is a stable, long term investment once it is producing because its output is consistent every year. The risk has been removed from the project.

4. Canariaco is the 1st of 3 projects all in the same area waiting to be discovered.

Candente has the opportunity to make further discoveries through Canariaco South and Quebrada Verde, both within a 5km trend that shares infrastructure. Management believes Canariaco Sur is a mineable deposit and will add tremendous support to shareholders in the future. Quebrada Verde demonstrates the same minerology and potential as both Norte and Sur which and requires future exploitation

Each of these projects will benefit greatly from Canariaco’s development as it will make development even cheaper than Canariaco Norte due to the infrastructure that will be in place, possible pushing Canariaco’s future overall costs even lower.

Click Here To Discover Why Candente Copper is Tomorrow’s Copper Deposit to Be Owned Today

As China Goes Green, Copper Market Expected to Tighten Further SPONSOR: Candente Copper $DNT.ca $CN.ca $FCX.ca $TECK.ca $FSUGY $PER.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 2:28 PM on Wednesday, November 4th, 2020
http://blog.agoracom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/candente-copper-for-blog1.jpg

The most pessimistic forecasts of copper demand, and pricing, during the worst pandemic in 102 years, have failed to materialize.

From a four-year low in March, when the coronavirus slammed into Europe and North America, the red metal used widely in construction, communications, transportation and energy transmission, has mounted a serious comeback.

As of this writing spot copper is trading at $3.08 per pound, compared to around $2.10/lb in mid-March – a gain of 46%. The spot price has stayed above $3.00 since Oct. 8 – which is remarkable considering the reports of impending economic doom, amid a second wave of covid-19 infections in Europe and North America.

The following analysis by AOTH has copper showing no signs of slowing down; in fact, while the copper market was tight before the pandemic began, we expect it to tighten even further, due to a constellation of factors, starting with China.

The Chinese economy became the first major world economy to return to its pre-virus growth trajectory, when it posted positive numbers in the second quarter. Recent figures from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicate that third-quarter GDP growth is up 4.9% from a year ago. Between April and June, Q2, the bureau reported a 3.2% rise. The Chinese are well ahead of their trading rivals as they strive to put the pandemic for which they were responsible, behind them.

According to the World Bank and the OECD, the Chinese economy in 2020 will grow 2% – the only G20 country to mark positive economic output this year. Beijing has managed to largely contain the virus in recent months after the pandemic shut down its economy. Commerce and travel have been allowed to resume, which is driving economic growth and fueling demand for copper and other industrial metals, like aluminum and nickel, whose prices are also climbing.

Other reasons for a rising copper price include covid-related restrictions imposed on the copper mining industry, along with speculative interest in the metal due to a weaker US dollar.

Copper output from the world’s top 10 producers declined 3.7% during the second quarter, due to nation-wide lockdowns in Chile, Peru and Mexico.

China’s copper dominance

Chinese growth statistics have always figured prominently in copper price forecasts – no surprise considering that China is responsible for just under half of the world’s production of copper and copper alloys semis, the industry term for first-stage products made from refined copper.

The Asian superpower is also the largest importer of unwrought copper, along with copper ores and concentrates.

Its manufacturing sector back on track, China’s copper imports rose sharply over the past four months; in September, the country imported 62% more copper than the same month in 2019. Unwrought copper imports of 4.9 million tonnes during the first nine months of the year, were up 41% from the same period last year.

According to Reuters columnist Clyde Russell, China has been vacuuming up copper, boosting the price at a time when demand elsewhere in the world was looking sickly as the virus spread.

Why is China importing so much copper? Russell claims the buying spree is being driven by Beijing’s stimulus spending following the national lockdown during the first four months of the year. But he also says it is likely that substantial volumes of copper are flowing into stockpiles, either strategic or commercial.

We agree, and have been writing quite a bit about this lately.

Obviously we can’t say for sure, given China’s opaque statistics, but we suggest a good chunk of the raw materials are going into bulking up the Chinese Military, in particular its navy patrolling the South China Sea. In other words, China is preparing for war.

The mining industry’s experience of China locking up the world’s mineral resources testifies to how far the Chinese will go to ensure their ever-growing demand for mined commodities is met.

Locking up supply

While iron ore ad copper were the hot targets of overseas acquisitions by Chinese firms as they sought to feed an economy that up until 2015 was growing at double digits, the Chinese have also gone after gold, nickel, tin and coking coal. More recently the most desired metals are those that feed into the global shift from fossil fuels to the electrification of vehicles. This has meant a hunt for lithium, cobalt, graphite, copper and rare earths – metals that are used in electric vehicles, of which China has become the world’s leading manufacturer. EVs use a lot of copper, four times as much as a regular vehicle, and China hasn’t been shy about boosting its copper reserves to meet expected demand.

Two large Peruvian copper mines are owned by Chinese companies. Chinese state-run Chinalco owns the Toromocho copper mine, while the La Bambas mine is a joint venture between operator MMG (62.5%), a subsidiary of Guoxin International Investment Co. Ltd (22.5%) and CITIC Metal Co. Ltd (15%). The Chinese-backed Mirador mine in Ecuador opened in 2019.

Most of the metal produced under these off-take agreements will NEVER come to the market anyplace other than in China. Those metals that do, can have their supply shut down any time the Chinese want.

In Brazil, Chinese banks and investment groups have committed $15 billion of a $20b China-Brazil Fund, launched in 2016 to finance infrastructure projects.

The Made in China 2025 initiative, which aims to make China’s copper industry more efficient, is expected to grow Chinese copper demand by an additional 232,000 tonnes by 2025. This isn’t counting the need for more copper for railways, electric vehicles, car motors and power transformers.

SOURCE: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article67933.html

Client Feature: The 4 Reasons Goldman Sachs Believes Candente Copper $DNT.ca is a World Class Company $CN.ca $FCX.ca $TECK.ca $FSUGY $PER.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 9:41 AM on Friday, October 23rd, 2020

The 4 Reasons Goldman Sachs Believes Candente Copper is a World Class Company

Candente Copper (TSX: DNT, BVL: DNT) owns 100% of a copper deposit in Peru and has big plans to become a miner. Candente owns a large, economic, copper ore body in Peru waiting to be mined.

Cañariaco Norte is a 100% owned feasibility-stage porphyry copper deposit.

Simply put, it is a mountainous rock body that holds 7.5 billion pounds of copper and has had multiple scientific studies propelling it along the way toward production. Strengthened by Goldman Sachs belief it is one of the top 80 copper deposits yet to be exploited and strategically guided by Australian Iron Ore giant Fortescue’s 19% inside ownership, Candente has the lowest quartile production costs that make it an intriguing project today and a must have for tomorrow.

 Reasons Why Candente Copper is A Top Small Cap Copper Company

1. Goldman Sachs has Canariacao Norte listed as one of the top 80 projects waiting to be developed worldwide and is top 42 in South America. Mining projects take a long time to be developed due to the strict standards required to prove metal content in the ground, which Candente has proven it has tremendous amounts of.

A single, contiguous, open-pit mineable deposit of 7.5B pounds Measured and Indicated and can be mined for 22 years once in production speaks to the stability of the project 

2. Supported Strategically by Fortesque’s 19.9% Ownership 

Fortesque is recognized as a global leader in the mining industry. Fortesque holds 19% Candente and became involved to advance Canariaco further into development. Fortesque committed 1$Million in January 2020 with an eye toward production and is considered a strategic investor, which means they have a long-term timeline for joint exploitation of the asset.

Fortescue is one of the largest global iron ore producers, recognized for its culture, innovation and industry-leading development of world class infrastructure and mining assets in Western Australia. This is truly a partnership which seeks to equally progress Canariaco into development and Candente into production status. The accepted odds for a discovery to find its way into production is about 1 in 1000, and speaks to the sheer difficulty of the exercise.

Candente is close to the finish line and Fortesque is there for the final push.

3. Canariaco is in the lowest quartile of production costs

Once in production Canariaco is in the lowest quartile of production costs for projects waiting to be developed Operating costs of US$0.988 per pound of copper

 Canariaco has 7.5Billion pounds of copper measured and indicated capable of generating annual production of 262,000,000lbs of copper, 39,000 oz gold & 911,000 oz silver over initial mine life of 22 yrs(@ 95,000 tpd). A long stable mine life is what attracts quality investors like Fortesque.

Canariaco is a stable, long term investment once it is producing because its output is consistent every year. The risk has been removed from the project.

4. Canariaco is the 1st of 3 projects all in the same area waiting to be discovered.

Candente has the opportunity to make further discoveries through Canariaco South and Quebrada Verde, both within a 5km trend that shares infrastructure. Management believes Canariaco Sur is a mineable deposit and will add tremendous support to shareholders in the future. Quebrada Verde demonstrates the same minerology and potential as both Norte and Sur which and requires future exploitation

Each of these projects will benefit greatly from Canariaco’s development as it will make development even cheaper than Canariaco Norte due to the infrastructure that will be in place, possible pushing Canariaco’s future overall costs even lower.

Click Here To Discover Why Candente Copper is Tomorrow’s Copper Deposit to Be Owned Today

Candente Copper Corp. $DNT.ca Announces Election of Directors and Voting Results for the 2020 Annual General Meeting $CN.ca $FCX.ca $TECK.ca $FSUGY $PER.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 1:06 PM on Friday, September 18th, 2020

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Sept. 18, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Candente Copper Corp. (TSX:DNT, BVL:DNT) (“Candente” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce the voting results for its Annual General Meeting of shareholders held Thursday, September 17th, 2020 in Vancouver, British Columbia.

A total of 34,206,593 common shares, representing 14.05% of the Company’s issued and outstanding shares were represented at the Meeting and all motions put forward were passed.

The following sets forth a summary of the voting results:

Number of Directors
Determining the number of Directors at six (6).

Votes For:89.75%
Votes Against:10.25%

Election of Directors
Determining the Directors to hold office until the next annual meeting of shareholders of the Company.

 Votes ForVotes Withheld
Joanne C. Freeze98.94%1.06%
Sean I. Waller94.81%5.19%
Giulio Bonifacio94.95%5.05%
George Elliott84.98%15.02%
Andres J. Milla84.98%15.02%
Agustin Pichot84.98%15.02%

Appointment of Auditor
Appointing Davidson and Company LLP, Chartered Professional Accountants, as Auditors of the Company for the ensuing year at a remuneration to be fixed by the Directors.

Votes For:96.76%
Votes Withheld: 3.24%

Approval of Unallocated Options, Rights and Other Entitlements under Option Plan
Approving, all unallocated options, rights and other entitlements under the Company’s Stock Option Plan.

Votes For: 88.95%
Votes Against:   11.05%

Shareholders Rights Plan
Confirming the Company’s Shareholder Rights Plan Agreement.

Votes For: 99.32%
Votes Against:0.68%

Other Matters
Approving, other business as may properly come before the Meeting or any adjournment thereof.

Votes For: 89.64%
Votes Against:  10.36%

About Candente Copper

Candente Copper is a mineral exploration company engaged in acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties.  The Company is currently focused on its 100% owned Cañariaco project, which includes the Feasibility stage Cañariaco Norte deposit as well as the Cañariaco Sur deposit and Quebrada Verde prospect, which all occur within a 5 km long structural setting.  The Cañariaco project is located in the western Cordillera of the Peruvian Andes in the Department of Lambayeque in Northern Peru.

Joanne C. Freeze, P.Geo., President and CEO, is the Qualified Person as defined by National Instrument 43-101 for the projects discussed above. She  have reviewed and approved the contents of this release.

This news release may contain forward-looking statements including but not limited to comments regarding timing and content of upcoming work programs, geological interpretations, receipt of property titles, potential mineral recovery processes, etc. Forward-looking statements address future events and conditions and therefore involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those currently anticipated in such statements. Candente Copper relies upon litigation protection for forward-looking statements.

On behalf of the Board of Candente Copper Corp.

“Joanne C. Freeze” P.Geo.
President, CEO and Director
___________________________________
For further information please contact:

“Joanne C. Freeze” P.Geo.
President, CEO and Director
Tel +1 604-689-1957
[email protected]
www.candentecopper.com

Copper Price Rallies as Chinese Scrap Shipments Sink by 50% SPONSOR: Candente Copper $DNT.ca $CN.ca $FCX.ca $TECK.ca $FMG.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 8:47 AM on Friday, September 18th, 2020

Copper prices rallied on Friday after predictions that Chinese imports of scrap metal are likely to fall by half, forcing the country to up cargoes of concentrate and unwrought copper, which are already at record levels.

Copper for delivery in December trading in New York exchanged hands for $3.0525 per pound ($6,730 a tonne) in midday trade, up 1.8% from yesterday’s settlement and not far off two-year highs struck at the beginning of the month.

China consumes more copper than the rest of the world combined and Reuters reports the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association told a conference on Friday that imports of secondary copper could halve in 2020, from just under 1.5 million tonnes last year.

The country wants to eliminate imports of what it deems “foreign waste” and has implemented a strict quota system. 

In a recent research report, Roskill called scrap the most vulnerable link in the global supply chain and said Chinese importers’ attempts at diversification by buying more ingot and copper granules have only had limited success, forcing importers to buy cathode from the rest of the world, where metal demand has slumped.

Jonathan Barnes, associate consultant for copper at the London-based metal and minerals researcher, noted regulations set for June that would have classified copper scrap as a “renewable resource” to enable refiners to skirt regulations have been delayed indefinitely. 

Barnes says on top of that several major shipping lines are refusing to transport scrap, fearing liability for return shipment if containerized cargoes are rejected by Chinese customs.  

Concentrate hard to come by 

Barnes says while the effects of covid-19 could decrease world consumption of the metal by 3%–4% this year, the drop in mine output and scrap flows has been greater.

Customs data show China’s unwrought copper imports (anodes and cathodes) in August declined to 668,486 tonnes from July’s record haul of 762,211 tonnes, but still up 65% from August last year.

Year to date imports now total 4.27m tonnes, up 38% from 2019 and on track to easily beat 2018’s annual record of 5.3m tonnes. 

At the same time, concentrate supplies from South America, where China sources the bulk of its mined copper, have been disrupted due to covid. 

August imports of copper concentrate fell by more than 12% from the same month last year to 1.59m tonnes on lingering supply disruptions from Peru and Chile.

SOURCE: https://www.mining.com/copper-price-rallies-as-chinese-scrap-shipments-sink-by-50/

Industry Bulletin: Roskill Sees ‘Structural Shift’ in Copper Market on Intense Buying From China SPONSOR: Candente Copper $DNT.ca $CN.ca $FCX.ca $TECK.ca $FMG.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 10:47 AM on Friday, August 28th, 2020
http://blog.agoracom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/candente-copper-for-blog1.jpg

Candente Copper is currently focused on its 100% owned Canariaco project, which includes the Feasibility stage Canariaco Norte deposit as well as the Canariaco Sur deposit and Quebrada Verde prospect, located within the western Cordillera of the Peruvian Andes in the Department of Lambayeque in Northern Peru. Canariaco is included in Goldman Sachs 84 Top Copper Projects Worldwide

An employee looks over sheets of copper cathode at Glencore’s Lomas Bayas copper operation in Chile. Credit: Glencore.

Copper was once again approaching the psychologically important US$3 per lb. level on the back of falling inventories, booming Chinese demand and pandemic hit supply from South America, the U.S. and Africa.

On Aug. 26, Copper for delivery in December trading in New York jumped 1.5% to US$2.9965 per lb. ($6,605 a tonne) in afternoon trading, bringing gains in 2020 to more than 7%, and 50% since the Covid-19 lows struck in March.

A new report from Roskill suggests the rally in copper, which has surprised many with its speed, has further to go.

Jonathan Barnes, associate consultant for copper at the London-based metal and minerals research firm, says while the effects of Covid-19 could decrease world consumption of the metal by 3%-4% this year, the drop in mine output and scrap flows has been greater.

This is most visible in the fall in inventories around the world.

Globally, total visible stocks, which include those on exchanges and bonded warehouses in China, fell by 40% from March through July to below 600,000 tonnes. LME warehouse inventories are at 13-year lows.

China is responsible for more than half of the world’s copper consumption, and the country is buying copper at record-setting rates.

“China is importing more refined metal from nearly every country suggesting a structural shift, not a temporary change,” says Barnes. 

“If you are looking for signs of panic buying, you can find evidence of that in China – total Chinese stocks represent less than two weeks’ consumption at current rates of use.”

In the rest of the world, where demand has dropped by much more relative to China, stocks represent only one week of consumption.

The lack of available scrap – imports are down 50% in the first half – after Beijing delayed new importing rules, has forced the Chinese buyers to replace secondary sources with cathode, further driving down visible inventories.

Roskill estimates a 300,000-tonne shortfall in imports of secondary materials — scrap, ingots and granules – into China from January to July.

Barnes believes global scrap flows may not normalize until the first quarter of next year, but would depend on new rules in China.

Roskill’s sources have not been able to confirm that China’s State Reserve Bureau has been buying up strategic stocks of copper, “but if they were, they probably would have done so earlier, when prices were much lower,” Barnes says.

Disruptions to mine supply could be between 750,000 to 1 million tonnes in 2020, with eight out of the 10 largest miners recording lower output during the first half of the year.

China’s concentrate imports are down year on year, while sourcing anodes from the central Africa copper belt is also hitting roadblocks.

Barnes says China’s two-year restocking cycle is rising in amplitude as the country’s dominance in the copper market increases, and he expects an 11.5% rise for the full year in copper imports.

The country has a structural copper market deficit, and it restocks whenever LME prices appear attractive. Moreover, says Barnes, China can take a long term view and use tomorrow what it does not need today.

Roskill expects trade data to show another bumper August for imports, despite being a seasonally muted month for shipments.

The copper price will likely rise further towards the end of 2020, Barnes says, and the current environment has strong parallels to the rebound in the copper price after the global financial crisis.

Copper hit a low of US$1.32 per lb. in January 2009, then surged to US$3.55 by April 2010, on its way to an all-time high of US$4.58 (more than $10,000 per tonne) in February 2011.

SOURCE: https://www.northernminer.com/commodities-markets/copper-price-to-extend-rally-on-signs-of-chinese-panic-buying/1003821456/