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Microsoft:Apple Market Cap Multiple Evaporates In 6 Years. A Lesson For Small-Cap CEO’s

Posted by AGORACOM at 2:22 AM on Tuesday, July 15th, 2008

If you are a market leader in your space, the following will illustrate why you shouldn’t get too cozy or complacent.

If you are a start-up, a (hard-working) laggard, or a small-cap CEO playing catch up to the big fish, the following should inspire you to keep pushing on both the sweat and ingenuity fronts.

  • Apple’s market value has risen from $US 6 billion in 2002 to $US 152 billion today.
  • In the same six year period, Microsoft’s market value has fallen from $US347 billion (or 58 times Apple) to $235 billion (1.5 times Apple).

I knew that Apple had made some incredible strides on MSFT over this decade but I was blown away by the shrinkage in the market-cap multiple between the two. From 58:1 to 1.5:1 – now that is what I call closing ground on the enemy.

Any guesses as to when Apple catches and runs MSFT right over?

Source: Big Picture Takes iPhone Beyond The Web

Jim Rogers Talking Freddie, Fannie, Benny, Uncle Sammy and China

Posted by AGORACOM at 7:16 AM on Monday, July 14th, 2008

Good morning to you all. Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund along with billionaire investor George Soros and whom we covered on AGORACOM quite extensively, was on Bloomberg TV this morning discussing every financial crisis under the sun.

I am writing this as I watch the interview, so don’t mind my form but do mind the facts.

UPDATE: Video is now up on Bloomberg.

Rogers was one of the first to go on record with a $200 oil call, saying $100 oil was a forgeone conclusion, as well as, $1,000 gold. He is also one of the biggest US bears out there, having announced that he is selling all of his US holdings and dollars, as well as, going short on the entire financial sector. Read our coverage from November 2007 here.

On the other hand, he is the biggest Agricultural bull anywhere, telling investors at every opportunity to buy Agriculture due to demand out of Asia.

Given what has happened to oil, gold, US markets, the US dollar and Agriculture, we make sure to pay attention to anything he has to say. You don’t have to follow all of his advice – but you should consider his comments at the very least.

*NOTE – This was an interview via Satellite so the notes below are more like shorthand notes…but they’re well worth your time tor read.

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AGORACOM Launches Investor Portfolios

Posted by AGORACOM at 6:23 AM on Saturday, July 12th, 2008

[PLEASE CLICK ON IMAGE TO SEE CLEAN, FULL SCREEN VERSION]

Dear AGORACOMers, with sky-rocketing traffic numbers and member satisfaction with our “Investor Controlled Forums” model, we are very happy to announce the official launch of member portfolios. We’re extremely happy with it. Very intuitive, clean and, most important, provides the ability to view your performance from many different angles.

It even allows you to track your overall net worth by adding in the value of non-stock assets such as bonds, your home, insurance policies, etc.

Response has been great so far, with members already calling for contests! Yep, you can count on one sometime soon. We just want to make sure any little bugs are ironed out, if any.

Thanks to all of our amazing members and clients for making AGORACOM the best small-cap and micro-cap community on the web. In return, we promise to keep providing amazing new tools and updates.

Have a great weekend.

Regards,
George, Paul and the AGORACOM Team

AGORACOM Surveys Over 850 Small-Cap Resource Investors

Posted by AGORACOM at 8:51 PM on Wednesday, July 9th, 2008


[NOTE – Though Some Data Is Specific To The Resources Industry, online research and usage data is applicable to all small-cap companies]

Throughout the first half of 2008, AGORACOM surveyed over 850 small-cap retail investors at each of the following 4 major resources conferences:

  • Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC)
  • Cambridge Conference Vancouver (January)
  • Cambridge Conference Vancouver (June)
  • Cambridge Conference Calgary

The purpose of the survey was to gain further insight into the online investing, research and community habits of small-cap and micro-cap investors. The surveys were conducted offline by design to avoid skewing of the results.

This survey represents a continuing series of surveys from each of these events since January of 2007. The results from each individual conference are posted on the AGORACOM blog within 30 days. In addition, the consolidated survey results are posted to our blog in early July. Both the individual and consolidated survey results can be found on the AGORACOM blog for you to review.

Given the speed at which the internet is moving and impacting investor relations, the results of these surveys are invaluable to CEO’s and investor relations departments of small-cap and micro-cap metals and mining companies across North America.

This is especially true for companies headed by older, less agile management teams that continue to overemphasize the value of traditional investor relations and under estimate the importance of online investor relations. Investors of such companies should also take note of these results and relay them to management.

AGORACOM has always understood the power and cost-efficiencies of search engine marketing, community building and multi-media communications. However, in order to go beyond theory and bias, we had to objectively prove it via empirical evidence.

SURVEY RESULTS

Upon reviewing the results and comparing them to 2007, we can unequivocally conclude that online research, collaboration and discussion are heavily utilized by small-cap investors and dramatically increasing. Frankly, the results were more dramatic than even we imagined and clearly point to the overwhelming need for an online IR strategy that goes beyond your website.

With approximately 850 investors surveyed, we were able to extract some extremely valuable information that will be of great importance to small-cap and micro-cap companies. The information will have different implications for each one of you, depending on your primary metal/mineral, market capitalization and online strategy. As such, though I’ve provided some tertiary comments following some of the results below, the final analysis will be your own. To this end, we’re happy to provide you with the following results:

HIGHLIGHTS

  • 81% of Investors Prefer Small-Cap Resource Companies over Large-Cap.
  • 48.4% of Investors were most Bullish on Gold compared to other minerals and metals.
  • 73% of Investors Conduct the Majority of their Research (75%+) into New Stocks Online. This is a dramatic 18.65% increase over 67% of respondents in 2007 and serves as proof positive that an online investor relations program is critical if you want to reach new investors.
  • 48% of Investors Conduct All of their Research (95%+) into New Stocks Online. No online IR program means you immediately miss out on 48% of all investors.
  • 60% of Investors Use Discussion Forums For Information and/or Research.

  • AGORACOM brand recognition amongst retail investors has risen by 360% over the same period last year. With 95% of our market budget allocated online, we are an actual case study about the power of online marketing to small-cap investors.

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AGORACOM Surveys Online Research Habits Of Investors At Vancouver Cambridge Conference 2008 (Summer)

Posted by AGORACOM at 6:12 PM on Wednesday, July 9th, 2008

AGORACOM is pleased to once again provide the results of our small-cap retail investor survey from the Vancouver Cambridge Conference held on June 15-16, 2008.

The results of this survey are invaluable to small-cap metals and mining companies across North America.

Given the speed at which the internet is moving and impacting investor relations, one of the most important things we continue to accomplish at the conference is surveying investors in order to better understand their online habits and preferences.

In comparing these results to 2007, we can unequivocally conclude that online research, collaboration and discussion have increased dramatically. Frankly, the results were more dramatic than even we imagined and clearly point to the overwhelming need for an online IR strategy that goes beyond your website.

AGORACOM Surveys Over 1,000 Investors In 2008

In addition to both Vancouver Cambridge Conferences, AGORACOM also surveys investors across the country at different events including PDAC in Toronto and the Calgary Cambridge Conference.

Response to the surveys has been overwhelmingly positive from executives that have found the information to be incredibly helpful.

We post the results from each individual conference within 30 days on the AGORACOM blog. In addition, we post the consolidated survey results every summer. Both the individual and consolidated survey results can be found on the AGORACOM blog for you to review.

AGORACOM SURVEY RESULTS – 2008 VANCOUVER CAMBRIDGE CONFERENCE

With approximately 100 investors surveyed at the Vancouver Cambridge Conference (June conference), we were able to extract some extremely valuable information that will be of great importance to all of us. The information will have different implications for each one of you, depending on your primary metal/mineral, market capitalization and online strategy. As such, though I’ve provided some tertiary comments following each of the results below, the final analysis will be your own. To this end, we’re happy to provide you with the following results:

Highlights

  • 86% of Investors Surveyed Prefer Small-Cap Resource Companies over Large-Cap.
  • 79.5% of Investors Surveyed Do the Majority of their Research (75%+) into New Stocks Online. This is a dramatic 18.65% increase over 67% of respondents in 2007 and serves as proof positive that an online investor relations program is critical if you want to reach new investors.
  • 55.9% of Investors Surveyed Do All of their Research (95%+) into New Stocks Online. No online IR program means you immediately miss out on 56% of all investors.
  • 62.4% of Investors Surveyed Use Discussion Forums For Information and/or Research. This represents a 14.8% increase over 54.4% of respondents in 2007 and further supports our contention that you need to take control of your message online, or risk having it taken from you by potentially unscrupulous investors.

  • Almost Half the Investors Surveyed (48%) were Bullish on Gold compared to other minerals and metals.
  • AGORACOM brand recognition amongst retail investors has risen by 360% over the same period last year. With 95% of our market budget allocated online, we are an actual case study about the power of online marketing to small-cap investors.

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AGORACOM Lands Front Page Of AOL Finance Canada

Posted by AGORACOM at 10:00 AM on Wednesday, July 9th, 2008

Good morning to you all. As many of you know, AGORACOM has been an exclusive provider of small-cap content to AOL Finance Canada since 2003. However, until recently, we’ve only resided behind the “AOL Wall” serving AOL paying members.

Now that AOL has taken down the wall and moved to its free model, our content is fully available to all AOL members and AOL has seen it fit to reward us with front page placement.

This is great news for AGORACOM but even better news for both our clients and the entire small-cap industry. Our clients will have the benefit of reaching a far larger audience when they release important news, while the entire small-cap space benefits from significantly greater visibility.

I have to add that I’m impressed with the Web 2.0 direction in which AOL Finance is moving, a dramatic improvement over their previous offering.

The re-design is paying off in a big way. In the U.S., AOL Finance has now surpassed both Yahoo and MSN in terms of both unique visitors and page views. The Canadian side hasn’t implemented all of the new tools from the U.S. side but it should only be a matter of time.

In the meantime, if Marty Moe is reading this, we’re ready to become a small-cap partner on the U.S. side when you are!

Regards,
George

John Templeton Dies At Age 95

Posted by AGORACOM at 9:37 AM on Tuesday, July 8th, 2008

John Templeton, founder of Templeton Funds and whom Money Magazine called “arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century” died today at age 95.

Investopedia has a great write-up of him for those of you that want to learn more about what makes a truly great investor. Of note are the following 4 quotes:

“Rejecting technical analysis as a method for investing, Templeton says, “You must be a fundamentalist to be really successful in the market.”

“Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.”

“If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd.”

“When asked about living and working in the Bahamas during his management of the Templeton Group, Templeton replied, “I’ve found my results for investment clients were far better here than when I had my office in 30 Rockefeller Plaza. When you’re in Manhattan, it’s much more difficult to go opposite the crowd.”

Regards,
George

Boone Pickens Predicts Higher Gold Prices On CNBC

Posted by AGORACOM at 7:16 AM on Tuesday, July 8th, 2008

In a CNBC special feature this morning discussing solutions to America’s energy crisis, Boone Pickens (and Byron Wein, Chief Investment Strategist at Pequot Capital) predicted higher gold prices as Chinese and other large holders of US dollars “look for alternatives”.

Why? Their extensive dealings with investors around the world reveals they are beginning to feel “skiddish” about the size of the $US holdings and looking for alternatives. Gold was the first and only alternative they mentioned.

During the interview, Boone and Byron make it pretty clear they’ve been around and seen it all, including the oil shock of the early 70’s. As such, when they speak we should listen. To this end, you can view clips of his extensive energy solutions on Squawk Box this morning. Some interesting tidbits:

  • Cars Per Thousand People (USA = 750; World = 120; China = 4)
  • Barrels Per Person Per Year (USA = 25; China = 2)
  • $US 700 Billion Is Heading Out Of The USA This Year To Pay For Oil

Wow. China clearly has years of increased oil consumption in front of it.

Regards,
George

Small-Cap CEO Lesson: Dell Has An Investor Relations Blog – Why Don’t You?

Posted by AGORACOM at 9:32 PM on Monday, July 7th, 2008

If you need more evidence for the fact that you need a CEO / IR Blog, then look no further than the company whose products you might be using to read this very blog post – Dell.

According to IR Web Report, Dell launched DellShares about 9 months ago for the purposes of educating investors about the company. In fact, the tag line on the front page reads ” information and insight for the investor community”.

TELL YOUR LAWYERS TO RELAX AND ENTER THE 21ST CENTURY

This should also serve to quell the concerns of trigger happy lawyers that are quick to shoot down new communications tools such as blogs, rather than learning to work with them.

Remember – forums, blogs, podcasts, etc. are nothing more than new mediums for communicating with shareholders and potential shareholders. As long as you stick to the rules of full disclosure, they should not be feared any more than fax machines, e-mail and websites when they were first introduced.

If Dell and their multi-million IR budget feels that Web 2.0 tools are valuable IR tools for reaching retail investors, what do you think you should be doing? Calling AGORACOM hopefully 🙂

Regards,
George

SEC Looks To Scrap “Forms” System For 21st Century Disclosure

Posted by AGORACOM at 9:06 PM on Monday, July 7th, 2008

IR Web Report posted a story titled “SEC seeks to ‘blow up’ forms-based system”, the 75-year old system in which pubco’s, brokers, funds, etc. file disclosures via specific forms. That’s right, you may soon be saying good-bye to 8K’s, 10K’s, 15 2C-11’s and other such forms. According to an SEC press release on the matter, a team has been put together to re-think reporting from scratch, free of any attachment to current forms. To this end, SEC Chairman Chris Cox stated as follows:

“To encourage a fundamental rethinking, the project won’t proceed from the premises of the current reporting system. It will start from scratch, from the ground up, freed from any conventions”

TIME LINE

As far as a time line goes, the press release stated the following:

“The first phase of the study will be completed by the end of 2008, when a follow-on advisory committee will be appointed to consider the questions in more detailed fashion through a public and consultative process.”

That is fast. In my opinion, that is too fast for anybody to tear up an existing system of any kind and develop a new one based on out of the box thinking. Nonetheless, if they can pull it off, all the power to them…though implementation is an entirely different matter.

NEW DISCLOSURE SYSTEM WILL BE BASED ON NEW TECHNOLOGIES

What I really like about the 21st Century Disclosure Initiative is the fact that it will be incorporating new technologies for the purpose of providing investors with both an easier and simpler system:

“On the 75th anniversary of the SEC, with so much new technology available to improve the quality of information for investors as well as the way investors acquire it, we’re initiating a broad, introspective look at our business model,” said Chairman Cox. … “We’ll be examining how to improve the way disclosure works, including tapping the full potential of today’s technology…That could mean fewer confusing forms, and more useful information at investors’ fingertips in a form they can really use.”

According to IR Web Report, the eventual new system will probably be based on “eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL), which breaks down traditional document-based disclosures into individually tagged data elements that can be read and recompiled by software according to an investor’s preferred way of viewing the information.”

If you don’t get that, don’t worry. We’re going to provide XBRL info in a separate post. In the meantime, here is a powerful but layman’s description from Edgar-Online:

XBRL automates financial analysis, which is an historic accomplishment. Computers can intelligently “read” an XBRL report to select specific data, pull it into documents and spreadsheets, analyze it, exchange it with other computers, and present it in a variety of formats. This can all take place in real time, allowing users to instantly compare hundreds of companies, industry sectors, topics, and issues, with automatic updates.

Exciting stuff for good emerging companies – and scary for small-cap / micro-cap companies that are nothing more than empty pump-n-dump schemes that hide behind convoluted filings.

We’ll be sure to keep you up to date on this initiative.

Regards,
George