AGORACOM Small-cap Investor Relations Blog

On Friday afternoon at 3:42 PM EST, I wrote “I have never seen this kind of whipsaw trading in my life.” With Canada enjoying Thanksgiving today, I took a few minutes to tally up just how much of a whipsaw, roller coaster, break neck day it actually was … 3,374 Points.

Here is the graphical version, followed by the actual math.  Keep in mind, these are only tracking moves greater than 400 points, there are plenty more 200 – 300 point moves.

MOVE #1 (9:38 AM) 8,579 DOWN TO 7,882 =  697 Points

MOVE #2 (10:08 AM) 7,882 UP TO 8,646 = 764 Points

MOVE #3 (1:50 PM) 8,646 DOWN TO 7,996 = 650 Points

MOVE #4 (3:36 PM) 7,996 UP TO 8,855 = 859 Points

MOVE #5 (CLOSE) 8,855 DOWN TO 8,451 = 404 Points

In addition to my last post, I’m also watching North American Futures via Bloomberg.  US is looking good and Canada is not so good.  Mind you, a lot can over the next 34 hours, when NA stock markets open again after today’s respective holidays.  In the meantime, here is the snapshot.  Click on it anytime to be taken to the most updated numbers.

If you are looking for news to support the US Green, then have a look at the following Bloomberg story.

On the other side of the aisle, Paul Kedrosky is hearing a lot of rumors but refuses to give them too much weight -  but I’ll give them a little weight after a personal Senior VP contact at a Tier-1 US bank advised on Friday that he stored $50,000 cash and another $50,000 gold in his home in the event of “anything”.

Regards,
George

We recently announced the acquisition of www.Grandich.com and the merger of Peter Grandich into AGORACOM as Chief Commentator. I personally made this decision after interviewing Peter over the last 3 years and watching his uncanny ability to call tops and bottoms in markets and commodities.

For example, back in October of 2007, when markets were sitting at all-time highs, Peter went on the record several times and advised he was shorting US markets.

Today, via this post on his blog, Peter stated:

“While I do believe the worse is not yet over, especially for the economy,
I think it’s time to lock in tremendous profits and stand aside. I’m seeing
classic signs of a capitulation bottom.”

When Peter speaks, I listen and would suggest all of you have a read of his post.

Regards,
George

There it is.  I said it.  I will say what nobody else wants to say.  1987 was painful but Black Monday put it all to an end and we moved forward.

If you are a small-cap CEO and believe in the long-term future of your company, then you needn’t worry about a couple of days of panic selling. You’ll be far beyond this in a couple of years.

If you are a small-cap investor and believe in the long-term future of your holdings, then take advantage of capitulation, add to your position and thank-me in 2-3 years when you are paying your child’s college tuition in cash.

Now, let’s get it over with so we can move forward.

Regards,
George

Given the fact most American citizens view the Bailout Bill as exactly that, a bailout, who is going to explain the drop in markets on Friday and what is now looking to be a bad Monday?

More importantly, If they perceive the Bailout Bill as an outright failure right out of the gate, what kind of backlash can we expect from a very, very angry nation? Will they demand the Bill be repealed? Or, at the very least, demand no further infusions be made beyond what has already been made?

If the markets continue this morning’s trends throughout the week, we could be looking at a severe crisis of confidence within the United States.

Regards,
George

If the bailout bill was supposed to stabilize markets, somebody forgot to tell investors around the world.  I woke up this morning to find the following:

• Asian Markets – > Down 4 %- 5%
• Euro Exchanges – > Down 5.5%
• US Futures – > Dow, S&P, Nasdaq down 2.1 – 2.5%
  
• Overnight Dollar Libor – > 2.37% vs 2%

On the green side, gold is up $15 to $851.

On the green side (for the economy) oil has fallen below $90.

Regards,
George

Good morning to you all.  Following the SEC’s decision yesterday to ease mark-to-market accounting rules, there is now talk about a temporary or even permanent repeal of the mark-to-market rules.

First, whether you understand MTM rules or not, you need to know this woud be a big mistake that would haunt our economy for years.

“As Japan learned, not taking the write downs only delays the day of reckoning. They propped up insolvent banks, and suffered a decade long recession for it. That way disaster lay . . .” [Ritholtz]

Second, whether you understand MTM rules or not, you need to read the following article to both learn about MTM and learn why any repeal of MTM would be a disaster.

Simply put, you can’t solve your problems by pretending they don’t exist for a little while.  If you are an American, you need to call / e-mail your Federal Representatives and let them know how you feel.  You need to do it today.  You also need to spread this message as fast as possible via blog posts, blog comments and e-mail to your friends.

The US economy can take it’s medicine now and get over it…or lie in bed for 10 years to avoid pain.  Right now, politicians would prefer the latter for no other reason than self-interest. This isn’t being cynical, this is a proven fact following the “CYA” voting that took place in Bailout Bill Part 1.

Regards,
George