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12-Year Breakout in Mining Stocks Relative to Gold – SPONSOR: Labrador Gold $LAB.ca – $RIO.ca $WHM.ca $SIC.ca $NXS.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 3:34 PM on Friday, January 10th, 2020
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SPONSOR: Labrador Gold – Two successful gold explorers lead the way in the Labrador gold rush targeting the under-explored gold potential of the province. Exploration has already outlined district scale gold on two projects, including a 40km strike length of the Florence Lake greenstone belt, one of two greenstone belts covered by the Hopedale Project. Click Here for More Info

Excerpts from Crescat Capitals November Newsletter:

Precious Metals

Precious metals are poised to benefit from what we consider to be the best macro set up we’ve seen in our careers. The stars are all aligning. We believe strongly that this time monetary policy will come at a cost. Look in the chart below at how the new wave of global money printing just initiated by the Fed in response to the Treasury market funding crisis is highly likely to pull depressed gold prices up with it.

The imbalance between historically depressed commodity prices relative to record overvalued US stocks remains at the core of our macro views. On the long side, we believe strongly commodities offer tremendous upside potential on many fronts. Precious metals remain our favorite. We view gold as the ultimate haven asset to likely outperform in an environment of either a downturn in the business cycle, rising global currency wars, implosion of fiat currencies backed by record indebted government, or even a full-blown inflationary set up. These scenarios are all possible. Our base case is that governments and central banks will keep their pedals to the metal to attempt to fend off credit implosion or to mop up after one has already occurred until inflation becomes a persistent problem.

The gold and silver mining industry is precisely where we see one of the greatest ways to express this investment thesis. These stocks have been in a severe bear market from 2011 to 2015 and have been formed a strong base over the last four years. They are offer and incredibly attractive deep-value opportunity and appear to be just starting to break out this year. We have done a deep dive in this sector and met with over 40 different management teams this year. Combining that work with our proprietary equity models, we are finding some of the greatest free-cash-flow growth and value opportunities in the market today unrivaled by any other industry. We have also found undervalued high-quality exploration assets that will make excellent buyout candidates.

We recently point out this 12-year breakout in mining stocks relative to gold now looks as solid as a rock. In our view, this is just the beginning of a major bull market for this entire industry. We encourage investors to consider our new Crescat Precious Metals SMA strategy which is performing extremely well this year.

Zero Discounting for Inflation Risk Today

With historic Federal debt relative to GDP and large deficits into the future as far as the eye can see, if the global financial markets cannot absorb the increase in Treasury debt, the Fed will be forced to monetize it even more. The problem is that the Fed’s panic money printing at this point in the economic cycle may hasten the unwinding of the imbalances it is so desperate to maintain because it has perversely fed the last-gasp melt up of speculation in already record over-valued and extended equity and corporate credit markets. It is reminiscent of when the Fed injected emergency cash into the repo market at the peak of the tech bubble at the end of 1999 to fend off a potential Y2K computer glitch that led to that market and business cycle top.
After 40 years of declining inflation expectations in the US, there is a major disconnect today between portfolio positioning, valuation, and economic reality. Too much of the investment world is long the “risk parity” trade to one degree or another, long stocks paired with leveraged long bonds, a strategy that has back-tested great over the last 40 years, but one that would be a disaster in a secular rising inflation environment.

With historic Federal debt relative to GDP and large deficits into the future as far as the eye can see, rising long-term inflation, and the hidden tax thereon, is the default, bi-partisan plan for the US government’s future funding regardless of who is in the White House and Congress after the 2020 elections. The market could start discounting this sooner rather than later.
The Fed’s excessive money printing may only reinforce the unraveling of financial asset imbalances today as it leads to rising inflation expectations and thereby a sell-off in today’s highly over-valued long duration assets including Treasury bonds and US equities, particularly insanely overvalued growth stocks. We believe we are in the vicinity of a major US stock market and business cycle peak.

Source:”Running Hot”

Courtesy of Crescat Capital: https://www.crescat.net/running-hot/

Thanks to

Kevin C. Smith, CFA
Chief Investment Officer

Tavi Costa
Portfolio Manager

Gold’s Outlook for 2020 – SPONSOR: American Creek Resources $AMK.ca $TUD.ca $SII.ca $GTT.ca $AFF.ca $SEA.ca $SA $PVG.ca $AOT.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 2:20 PM on Friday, January 10th, 2020

This article is an overview of the economic conditions that will drive the gold price in 2020 and beyond. The turn of the credit cycle, the effect on government deficits and how they are to be financed are addressed.

In the absence of foreign demand for new US Treasuries and of a rise in the savings rate the US budget deficit can only be financed by monetary inflation. This is bound to lead to higher bond yields as the dollar’s falling purchasing power accelerates due to the sheer quantity of new dollars entering circulation. The relationship between rising bond yields and the gold price is also discussed.

It may turn out that the recent extraordinary events on Comex, with the expansion of open interest failing to suppress the gold price, are an early recognition in some quarters of the US Government’s debt trap.

The strains leading to a crisis for fiat currencies are emerging into plain sight.

Introduction

In 2019, priced in dollars gold rose 18.3% and silver by 15.1%. Or rather, and this is the more relevant way of putting it, priced in gold the dollar fell 15.5% and in silver 13%. This is because the story of 2019, as it will be in 2020, was of the re-emergence of fiat currency debasement. Particularly in the last quarter, the Fed began aggressively injecting new money into a surprisingly illiquid banking system through repurchase agreements, whereby banks’ reserves at the Fed are credited with cash loaned in return for T-bills and coupon-bearing Treasuries as collateral. Furthermore, the ECB restarted quantitative easing in November, and the Bank of Japan stands ready to ease policy further “if the momentum towards its 2% inflation target comes under threat” (Kuroda – 26 December).

The Bank of Japan is still buying bonds, but at a pace which is expected to fall beneath redemptions of its existing holdings. Therefore, we enter 2020 with money supply being expanded by two, possibly all three of the major western central banks. Besides liquidity problems, the central bankers’ nightmare is the threat that the global economy will slide into recession, though no one will confess it openly because it would be an admission of policy failure. And policy makers are also terrified that if bankers get wind of a declining economy, they will withdraw loan facilities from businesses and make things much worse.

Of the latter concern central banks have good cause. A combination of the turn of the credit cycle towards its regular crisis phase and Trump’s tariff war has already hit international trade badly, with exporting economies such as Germany already in recession and important trade indicators, such as the Baltic dry index collapsing. No doubt, President Trump’s most recent announcement that a trade deal with China is ready for signing is driven by an understanding in some quarters of the White House that over trade policy, Trump is turning out to be the turkey who voted for Christmas. But we have heard this story several times before: a forthcoming agreement announced only to be scrapped or suspended at the last moment.

The subject which will begin to dominate monetary policy in 2020 is who will fund escalating government deficits. At the moment it is on few investors’ radar, but it is bound to dawn on markets that a growing budget deficit in America will be financed almost entirely by monetary inflation, a funding policy equally adopted in other jurisdictions. Furthermore, Christine Lagarde, the new ECB president, has stated her desire for the ECB’s quantitative easing to be extended from government financing to financing environmental projects as well.

2020 is shaping up to be the year that all pretence of respect for money’s role as a store of value is abandoned in favour of using it as a means of government funding without raising taxes. 2020 will then be the year when currencies begin to be visibly trashed in the hands of their long-suffering users.

Gold in the context of distorted markets

At the core of current market distortions is a combination of interest rate suppression and banking regulation. It is unnecessary to belabour the point about interest rates, because minimal and even negative rates have demonstrably failed to stimulate anything other than asset prices into bubble territory. But there is a woeful lack of appreciation about the general direction of monetary policy and where it is headed.

The stated intention is the opposite of reality, which is not to rescue the economy: while important, from a bureaucrat’s point of view that is not the greatest priority. It is to ensure that governments are never short of funds. Inflationary financing guarantees the government will always be able to spend, and government-licenced banks exist to ensure the government always has access to credit.

Unbeknown to the public, the government licences the banks to conduct their business in a way which for an unlicensed organisation is legally fraudulent. The banks create credit or through their participation in QE they facilitate the creation of base money out of thin air which is added to their reserves. It transfers wealth from unsuspecting members of the public to the government, crony capitalists, financial speculators and consumers living beyond their means. The government conspires with its macroeconomists to supress the evidence of rising prices by manipulating the inflation statistics. So successful has this scheme of deception been, that by fuelling GDP, monetary debasement is presented as economic growth, with very few in financial mainstream understanding the deceit.

The government monopoly of issuing money, and through their regulators controlling the expansion of credit, was bound to lead to progressively greater abuse of monetary trust. And now, in this last credit cycle, the consumer who is also the producer has had his income and savings so depleted by continuing monetary debasement that he can no longer generate the taxes to balance his government’s books later in the credit cycle.

The problem is not new. America has not had a budget surplus since 2001. The last credit cycle in the run up to the Lehman crisis did not deliver a budget surplus, nor has the current cycle. Instead, following the Lehman crisis we saw a marked acceleration of monetary inflation, and Figure 2 shows how dollar fiat money has expanded above its long-term trend since then.

In recent years, the Fed’s attempt to return to monetary normality by reducing its balance sheet has failed miserably. After a brief pause, the fiat money quantity has begun to grow at a pace not seen since the immediate aftermath of the Lehman crisis itself and is back in record territory. Figure 1 is updated to 1 November, since when FMQ will have increased even more.

In order to communicate effectively the background for the relationship between gold and fiat currencies in 2020 it is necessary to put the situation as plainly as possible. We enter the new decade with the highest levels of monetary ignorance imaginable. It is a systemic issue of not realising the emperor has no clothes. Consequently, markets have probably become more distorted than we have ever seen in the recorded history of money and credit, as widespread negative interest rates and negative-yielding bonds attest. In our attempt to divine the future, it leaves us with two problems: assessing when the tension between wishful thinking in financial markets and market reality will crash the system, and the degree of chaos that will ensue.

The timing is impossible to predict with certainty because we cannot know the future. But, if the characteristics of past credit cycles are a guide, it will be marked with a financial and systemic crisis in one or more large banks. Liquidity strains suggest that event is close, even within months and possibly weeks. If so, banks will be bailed, of that we can be certain. It will require central banks to create yet more money, additional to that required to finance escalating government budget deficits. Monetary chaos promises to be greater than anything seen heretofore, and it will engulf all western welfare-dependent economies and those that trade with them.

We have established that between keeping governments financed, bailing out banks and perhaps investing in renewable green energy, the issuance of new money in 2020 will in all probability be unprecedented, greater than anything seen so far. It will lead to a feature of the crisis, which may have already started, and that is an increase in borrowing costs forced by markets onto central banks and their governments. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries is already on the rise, as shown in Figure 3.


Assuming no significant increase in the rate of savings and despite all attempts to suppress the evidence, the acceleration in the rate of monetary inflation will eventually lead to runaway increases in the general level of prices measured in dollars. As Milton Friedman put it, inflation [of prices] is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.

Through QE, central banks believe they can contain the cost of government funding by setting rates. What they do not seem to realise is that while to a borrower interest is a cost to set against income, to a lender it reflects time-preference, which is the difference between current possession, in this case of cash dollars, and possession at a future date. Unless and until the Fed realises and addresses the time preference problem, the dollar will lose purchasing power. Not only will it be sold in the foreign exchanges, but depositors will move to minimise their balances and creditors their ownership of debt.

If, as it appears in Figure 3, dollar bond yields are beginning a rising trend, the inexorable pull of time preference is already beginning to apply and further rises in bond yields will imperil government financing. The Congressional Budget Office assumes the average interest rate on debt held by the public will be 2.5% for the next three years, and that net interest in fiscal 2020 will be $390bn, being about 38% of the projected deficit of $1,008bn. Combining the additional consequences for government finances of a recession with higher bond yields than the CBO expects will be disastrous.

Clearly, in these circumstances the Fed will do everything in its power to stop markets setting the cost of government borrowing. But we have been here before. The similarities between the situation for the dollar today and the deterioration of British government finances in the early to mid-1970s are remarkable. They resulted in multiple funding crises and an eventual bail-out from the IMF. Except today there can be no IMF bail-out for the US and the dollar, because the bailor gets its currency from the bailee.

Nearly fifty years ago, in the UK gold rose from under £15 per ounce in 1970 to £80 in December 1974. The peak of the credit cycle was at the end of 1971, when the 10-year gilt yield to maturity was 7%. By December 1974, the stock market had crashed, a banking crisis had followed, price inflation was well into double figures and the 10-year gilt yield to maturity had risen to over 16%.

History rhymes, as they say. But for historians the parallels between the outlook for the dollar and US Treasury funding costs at the beginning of 2020, and what transpired for the British economy following the Barbour boom of 1970-71 are too close to ignore. It is the same background for the relationship between gold and fiat currencies for 2020 and the few years that follow.

Gold and rising interest rates

Received investment wisdom is that rising interest rates are bad for the gold price, because gold has no yield. Yet experience repeatedly contradicts it. Anyone who remembers investing in UK gilts at a 7% yield in December 1971 only to see prices collapse to a yield of over 16%, while gold rose from under £15 to £80 to the ounce over the three years following should attest otherwise.

Part of the error is to believe that gold has no yield. This is only true of gold held as cash and for non-monetary usage. As money, it is loaned and borrowed, just like any other form of money. Monetary gold has its own time preference, as do government currencies. In the absence of state intervention, time preferences for gold and government currencies are set by their respective users, bearing in mind the characteristics special to each. It is not a subject for simple arbitrage, selling gold and buying government money to gain the interest differential, because the spread reflects important differences which cannot be ignored. It is like shorting Swiss francs and buying dollars in the belief there is no currency risk.

The principal variable between the time preferences of gold and a government currency is the difference between an established form of money derived from the collective preferences of its users, for which there is no issuer risk, and state-issued currency which becomes an instrument of funding by means of its debasement.

The time preference of gold will obviously vary depending on lending risk, which is in addition to an originary rate, but it is considerably more stable than the time preference of a fiat currency. Gold’s interest rate stability is illustrated in Figure 4, which covers the period of the gold standard from the Bank Charter Act of 1844 to before the First World War, during which time the gold standard was properly implemented. With the exception of uncontrolled bank credit, sterling operated as a gold substitute.


Admittedly, due to problems created by the cycle of bank credit, these year-end values conceal some significant fluctuations, such as at the time of the Overend Gurney collapse in 1866 when borrowing rates spiked to 10%. The depression following the Barings crisis of 1890 stalled credit demand which is evident from the chart. However, wholesale borrowing rates, which were effectively the cost of borrowing in gold, were otherwise remarkably stable, varying between 2-3½%. Some of this variation can be ascribed to changing perceptions of general borrower risk and some to changes in industrial investment demand, related to the cycle of bank credit.

Compare this with dollar interest rates since 1971, when the dollar had suspended the remaining fig-leaf of gold backing, which is shown in Figure 5 for the decade following.


In February 1972 the Fed Funds rate was 3.29%, rising eventually to over 19% in January 1981. At the same time gold rose from $46 to a high of $843 at the morning fix on 21 January 1980. Taking gold’s originary interest rate as approximately 2% it required a 17% interest rate penalty to dissuade people from hoarding gold and to hold onto dollars instead.

In 1971, US Government debt stood at 35% of GDP and in 1981 it stood at 31%. The US Government ran a budget surplus over the decade sufficient to absorb the rising interest cost on its T-bill obligations and any new Treasury funding. America enters 2020 with a debt to GDP ratio of over 100%. Higher interest rates are therefore not a policy option and the US Government, and the dollar, are ensnared in a debt trap from which the dollar is unlikely to recover.

The seeds of the dollar’s destruction were sown over fifty years ago, when the London gold pool was formed, whereby central banks committed to help the US maintain the price at $35, being forced to do so because the US could no longer supress the gold price on its own. And with good reason: Figure 6 shows how the last fifty years have eroded the purchasing power of the four major currencies since the gold pool failed.

 

Over the last fifty years, the yen has lost over 92%, the dollar 97.6%, the euro (and its earlier components 98.2% and sterling the most at 98.7%. And now we are about to embark on the greatest increase of global monetary inflation ever seen.

The market for physical gold

In recent years, demand for physical gold has been strong. Chinese and Indian private sector buyers have to date respectively accumulated an estimated 17,000 tonnes (based on deliveries from Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults) and about 24,000 tonnes (according to WGC Director Somasundaram PR quoted in India’s Financial Express last May).

It is generally thought that higher prices for gold will deter future demand from these sources, with the vast bulk of it being categorised as simply jewellery. But this is a western view based on a belief in objective values for government currencies and subjective prices for gold. It ignores the fact that for Asians, it is gold that has the objective value. In Asia gold jewellery is acquired as a store of value to avoid the depreciation of government currency, hoarded as a central component of a family’s long-term wealth accumulation.

Therefore, there is no certainty higher prices will compromise Asian demand. Indeed, demand has not been undermined in India with the price rising from R300 to the ounce to over R100,000 today since the London gold pool failed, and that’s despite all the government disincentives and even bans from buying gold.

Additionally, since 2008 central banks have accumulated over 4,400 tonnes to increase their official reserves to 34,500 tonnes. The central banks most active in the gold market are Asian, and increasingly the East and Central Europeans.

There are two threads to this development. First there is a geopolitical element, with Russia replacing reserve dollars for gold, and China having deliberately moved to control global physical delivery markets. And second, there is evidence of concern amongst the Europeans that the dollar’s role as the reserve currency is either being compromised or no longer fit for a changed world. Furthermore, the rising power of Asia’s two hegemons continues to drive over two-thirds of the world’s population away from the dollar towards gold.

Goldmoney estimates there are roughly 180,000 tonnes of gold above ground, much of which cannot be categorised as monetary: monetary not as defined for the purposes of customs reporting, but in the wider sense to include all bars, coins and pure gold jewellery accumulated for its long-term wealth benefits through good and bad times. Annual mine production adds 3,000-3,500 tonnes, giving a stock to flow ratio of over 50 times. Put another way, the annual increase in the gold quantity is similar to the growth in the world’s population, imparting great stability as a medium of exchange.

These qualities stand in contrast to the increasingly certain acceleration of fiat currency debasement over the next few years. Anyone prepared to stand back from the financial coalface can easily see where the relationship between gold and fiat currencies is going. Most of the world’s population is moving away from the established fiat regime towards gold as a store of value, their own fiat currencies lacking sufficient credibility to act as a dollar alternative. And financial markets immersed in the fiat regime have very little physical gold in possession. Instead, where it is now perceived that there is a risk of missing out on a rise in the gold price, investors have begun accumulating in greater quantities the paper alternatives to physical gold: ETFs, futures, options, forward contracts and mining shares.

Paper markets

From the US Government’s point of view, gold as a rival to the dollar must be quashed, and the primary purpose of futures options and forwards is to expand artificial supply to keep the price from rising. In a wider context, the ability to print synthetic commodities out of thin air is a means of suppressing prices generally and we must not be distracted by claims that derivatives improve liquidity: they only improve liquidity at lower prices.

When the dollar price of gold found a major turning point on 17 December 2015, open interest on Comex stood at 393,000 contacts. The year-end figure today is nearly double that at 786,422 contracts, representing an increase of paper supply equivalent to 1,224 tonnes. But that is not all. Not only are there other regulated derivative exchanges with gold contracts, but also there are unregulated over the counter markets. According to the Bank for International Settlements from end-2015 unregulated OTC contracts (principally London forward contracts) expanded by the equivalent of 2,450 tonnes by last June, taken at contemporary prices. And we must not forget the unknown quantity of bank liabilities to customers’ unallocated accounts which probably involve an additional few thousand tonnes.

In recent months, the paper suppression regime has stepped up a gear, evidenced by Comex’s open interest rising. This is illustrated in Figure 7.


There are two notable features in the chart. First, the rising gold price has seen increasing paper supply, which we would expect from a market designed to keep a lid on prices. Secondly instead of declining with the gold price, open interest continued to rise following the price peak in early September while the gold price declined by about $100. This tells us that the price suppression scheme has run into trouble, with large buyers taking the opportunity to increase their positions at lower prices.

In the past, bullion banks have been able to put a lid on prices by creating Comex contracts out of thin air. The recent expansion of open interest has failed to achieve this objective, and it is worth noting that the quantity of gold in Comex vaults eligible for delivery and pledged is only 2% of the 2,446-tonne short position. In London, there are only 3,052 tonnes in LBMA vaults (excluding the Bank of England), which includes an unknown quantity of ETF and custodial gold. Physical liquidity for the forward market in London is therefore likely to be very small relative to forward deliveries. And of course, the bullion banks in London and elsewhare do not have the metal to cover their obligations to unallocated account holders, which is an additional consideration.

Clearly, there is not the gold available in the system to legitimise derivative paper. It now appears that paper gold markets could be drifting into systemic difficulties with bullion banks squeezed by a rising gold price, short positions and unallocated accounts.

There are mechanisms to counter these systemic risks, such as the ability to declare force majeure on Comex, and standard unallocated account contracts which permit a bullion bank to deliver cash equivalents to bullion obligations. But the triggering of any such escape from physical gold obligations could exacerbate a buying panic, driving prices even higher. It leads to the conclusion that any rescue of the bullion market system is destined to fail.

A two-step future for the gold price

It has been evident for some time that the world of fiat currencies has been drifting into ever greater difficulties of far greater magnitude than can be contained by spinning a few thousand tonnes of gold back and forth on Comex and in London. That appears to be the lesson to be drawn from the inability of a massive increase in open interest on Comex to contain a rising gold price.

It will take a substantial upward shift in the gold price to appraise western financial markets of this reality. In combination with systemic strains increasing, a gold price of over $2,000 may do the trick. Professional investors will have found themselves wrongfooted; underinvested in ETFs, gold mines and regulated derivatives, in which case their gold demand is likely to drive one or more bullion houses into considerable difficulties. We might call this the first step in a two-step monetary future.

The extent to which gold prices rise could be substantial, but assuming the immediate crisis itself passes, banks having been bailed in or out, and QE accelerated in an attempt to put a lid on government bond yields, then the gold price might be deemed to have risen too far, and due for a correction. But then there will be the prospect of an accelerating loss of purchasing power for fiat currencies as a result of the monetary inflation, and that will drive the second step as investors realise that what they are seeing is not a rising gold price but a fiat currency collapse.

The high levels of government debt today in the three major jurisdictions appear to almost guarantee this outcome. The amounts involved are so large that today’s paper gold suppression scheme is likely to be too small in comparison and cannot stop it happening. The effect on currency purchasing powers will then be beyond question. Monetary authorities will be clueless in their response, because they have all bought into a form of economics that puts what will happen beyond their understanding.

As noted above, the path to a final crisis for fiat currencies might have already started, with the failure by the establishment to suppress the gold price through the creation of an extra 100,000 Comex contracts. If not, then any success by the monetary authorities to reassert control is likely to be temporary.

Perhaps we are already beginning to see the fiat currency system beginning to unravel, in which case those that insist gold is not money will find themselves impoverished.

Source: Goldmoney Insights

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/gold-s-outlook-for-2020

Gold-Backed ETF Holdings Hit All-Time High in 2019 SPONSOR: American Creek Resources $AMK.ca $TUD.ca $SII.ca $GTT.ca $AFF.ca $SEA.ca $SA $PVG.ca $AOT.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 5:48 PM on Thursday, January 9th, 2020

American Creek owns a 20% Carried Interest to Production at the Treaty Creek Project in the Golden Triangle. 2019’s first hole averaged 0.683 g/t Au over 780m in a vertical intercept. The Treaty Creek property is located in the same hydrothermal system as the Pretivm and Seabridge’s KSM deposits.

https://www.mining.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/bank-vault-gold-900.jpg
Low-cost gold-backed ETFs in the US have seen positive flows for 18 of the past 19 months

Global gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and similar products had $19.2 billion or 400 tonnes of net inflows in 2019 after holdings rebounded in December, the World Gold Council (WGC) reports. In the fourth quarter, ETF holdings reached an all-time high of 2,900 tonnes.

Overall, gold-backed assets under management (AUM) grew by 37% in dollar terms during the year owing to positive demand and an 18.4% increase in the gold price.

From a regional perspective, North American funds led the way with inflows of 206 tonnes ($10.1 billion, 14.4% AUM). SPDR Gold Shares – the world’s biggest gold ETF—and iShares Gold Trust accounted for nearly half of last year’s inflows.

Low-cost gold-backed ETFs in the US have seen positive flows for 18 of the past 19 months and increased their collective holdings by 60%, according to the latest WGC data.

Elsewhere, holdings in European funds increased by 188 tonnes ($8.8 billion, 13.6%), while funds listed in Asia were nearly flat, recording an outflow of 0.1 tonnes ($12 million, 0.3%). The remaining regions had combined inflows of 6.3 tonnes ($311 million, 16.3%).

Looking ahead, WGC analysts said that they expect investor demand to remain robust through 2020.

“The strength of gold was mainly the byproduct of a dovish shift in monetary policy. Our research indicates that a shift from a hawkish or neutral stance to a dovish one has historically led gold to outperform,” a WGC analyst said.

About American Creek

American Creek is a Canadian mineral exploration company with a strong portfolio of gold and silver properties in British Columbia. Three of those properties are located in the prolific “Golden Triangle”; the Treaty Creek and Electrum joint venture projects with Tudor Gold/Walter Storm as well as the 100% owned past producing Dunwell Mine.

More information about the Treaty Creek Project can be found here: https://americancreek.com/index.php/projects/treaty-creek/home

An exploration program is ongoing on American Creek’s 100% owned Dunwell Mine property located near Stewart. More information can be found here: https://americancreek.com/index.php/projects/dunwell-mine

The Corporation also holds the Gold Hill, Austruck-Bonanza, Ample Goldmax, Silver Side, and Glitter King properties located in other prospective areas of the province.

For further information please contact Kelvin Burton at: Phone: 403 752-4040 or Email: [email protected]. Information relating to the Corporation is available on its website at www.americancreek.com

Source: https://www.mining.com/gold-backed-etf-holdings-grew-14-in-2019/

Will 2020 Be Junior Mining’s Year? SPONSOR: Loncor $LN.ca $ABX.ca $TECK.ca $RSG $NGT.to

Posted by AGORACOM at 1:55 PM on Thursday, January 9th, 2020
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Sponsor: Loncor is a Canadian gold exploration company focused on two projects in the DRC – the Ngayu and North Kivu projects, both have historic gold production. Exploration at the Ngayu project is currently being undertaken by Loncor’s joint venture partner Barrick Gold. The Ngayu project is 200km southwest of the Kibali gold mine, operated by Barrick, which produced 800,000 ounces of gold in 2018. Barrick manages and funds exploration at the Ngayu project until the completion of a pre-feasibility study on any gold discovery meeting the investment criteria of Barrick. Click Here for More Info

Another year of covering commodities and select junior mining stocks is all but done and dusted. 

We’ve seen palladium prices more than double those of platinum, its sister metal, on tight supply and high demand for catalytic converters in gas-powered vehicles, as smog-belching diesel cars and trucks get phased out to meet tighter air emissions standards particularly in Europe and China. 

Indonesia advanced a 2022 deadline for banning the export of mineral ores, including nickel, prompting a massive surge in the price of the stainless steel and electric-vehicle battery ingredient. In September, nickel powered past $8 a pound, before slipping back to around $6/lb after the resumption of Indonesian ore exports and weaker demand from the stainless steel industry.  

Palladium and nickel are both in-demand metals for the foreseeable future, nickel for its use in batteries and stainless steel, and palladium as an important ingredient of catalytic converters found in gas-powered/ hybrid vehicles.

Zinc inventories in February fell to the point where there were less than two days worth of global consumption locked in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses. The paucity of the metal used to prevent rusting caused prices to spike to the highest since June 2018. 

Gold started off the year around $1,300/oz, and didn’t do much for the first half on account of higher interest rates holding prices down. In July though, gold started to run when the US Federal Reserve reversed course and began cutting interest rates instead of raising them. The ECB and a number of other central banks followed suit, wanting to keep interest rates low to try and boost flagging economic growth. 

The yellow metal advanced to $1,550 in early September due to a combination of factors including negative real interest rates (always good for gold), a sluggish dollar, and safe haven demand owing to US tensions with Iran, impeachment, Brexit fears, etc.

Silver followed a similar, though more bumpy trajectory. The white metal used more for industrial than investment purposes traded in a tight range (~$1.50) from January to May, bottoming out at $14.38 before jumping Sept. 4 to within two bits of $20 ($19.57). 

Copper had an off year in 2018 over fears of slowing Chinese growth and the US-China trade war, but as we at AOTH have always maintained, the market fundamentals are solid. Over 200 copper mines currently in operation will reach the end of their productive life before 2035. Most of the low-hanging copper “fruit” has been picked. New copper mines will be lower-grade and farther afield, meaning higher capex and production costs.

Although copper prices suffered in the second and third quarter, things are looking up for the essential base metal needed for plumbing and wiring, power generation, communications, 5G networks, and electric vehicles, which use around four times as much copper as a conventional car or truck. 

Energized by a rip-roaring fourth quarter, copper bulls are back on board. From its 52-week low in August of $2.51/lb, the red metal gained an impressive 11%, reaching a pinnacle of $2.83/lb Dec. 12, on expectations of a trade war resolution between the world’s number one and two economies, and the improved economic growth prospects that would entail. Copper has risen 7% in December alone. 

Proven right 

Our predictions for all of these metals have been bang on. We were right to say, as we did last January, that Commodities are the right story for 2019

We pinned our thesis on three key points: 1/ Commodities are cyclical, and the timing is right to get in now; 2/ The US dollar is falling, and will likely continue to fall or be range-bound going forward. A resolution to the trade war between the US and China, and a looser monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (both of which are likely) will weigh on the dollar and be good for commodities; 3/ The need for infrastructure spending is not going to let up. 

Close to a year later, our commodities hypothesis rings true. The dollar’s upward march in 2018 (DXY moved from 89 to 97) did stop in 2019, helping commodities priced in US dollars. The US-China trade war escalated but as we predicted, there was a resolution – not a complete trade deal – but enough hope for one, to send copper, the most important base metal, soaring in recent weeks. 

At the beginning of the year, as stock markets bounced back from their awful fourth-quarter 2018, everyone thought that the US economy was roaring. We weren’t so sure, and presented evidence of a less sanguine picture including negative fallout from the trade war with China and a yield curve inversion which is a very accurate indicator of a coming recession. 

The US Federal Reserve appeared to agree. Worried about low growth, globally and in the US, the Fed slammed the brakes on the interest rate hikes it started in 2015, and began lowering them in July, 2019. That immediately juiced gold and silver. Investors piled into precious metals as an alternative to near-zero or negative-yielding sovereign bonds. Looser monetary policy, check. 

In later articles we showed the bullish cases for zinc, nickel and palladium. 

The palladium price tripled from the start of 2016 to spring of 2019, beating gold just under a year ago for the first time in 16 years. Palladium has been in deficit for eight straight years, because of low mined output and smoking-hot demand from the auto sector. So far in 2019 it has gained 47%. 

Battery companies have been developing nickel-rich batteries in two of the dominant chemistries for EVs, the nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) battery used in the Chevy Bolt (also the Nissan Leaf and BMW i3) and the nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA) battery manufactured by Panasonic/Tesla. Added to Indonesia’s on and off export ban, a demand boost from nickel’s growing use in electric-vehicle batteries, and dwindling global stockpiles, have helped support nickel prices.

According to the USGS, despite new zinc mines opening in Australia and Cuba, supply failed to keep up with consumption. Some very large zinc mines have been depleted and shut down in recent years, with not enough new mine supply to take their place. As a result, the zinc market was in deficit in 2018. 

Tighter environmental restrictions in China are lessening the amount smelters can produce. National production of refined zinc in 2018 fell to just 4.53 million tonnes, the sharpest downturn since 2013. The result has been a record amount of refined zinc imported by the world’s largest metals consumer, 715,355t in 2018. The high demand in China has also pulled a lot of zinc out of LME warehouses.

In October zinc prices hit a four-month high due to falling zinc stocks – inventories in London Metal Exchange-registered warehouses plunged to 57,775 tonnes – a smidgen higher than the 50,425t in April, the lowest since the 1990s, Reuters said. 

Tough market for explorers

It’s good to see we were right about so many metal markets. 

Regrettably however, the valuations of mineral exploration companies have yet to follow the prices of the metals they are hunting. 

Indeed the junior mining sector has been in a funk since around 2012. 

The juniors’ place in the mining food chain is to provide projects to be turned into mines for larger mining companies whose reserves are running low. This is becoming a growing problem as all the low-hanging, high-grade deposit fruit has been picked. Such is the case for gold, silver, copperpalladium, zinc and nickel, all of which are encountering, or will shortly encounter, supply deficits, amid booming demand for battery metals and precious metals. 

Finding the kind of grades at amounts that will make a mine profitable usually requires going farther afield or deeper – greatly adding to costs per ounce or tonne.

Here’s the problem juniors have been facing: At the same time as investment capital has been pulled out of the mining majors and mid-tiers – by investors tired of seeing falling or stagnant stock prices/ red ink balance sheets – there’s been a dearth of speculative capital flowing into exploration companies.

The ascendance of index funds has also made it harder for juniors to attract money, because they are too small to be in the funds that these vehicle track. 

According to a 2019 report by PDAC – the association that puts on the annual mining show in Toronto – and Oreninc, a junior financing tracker, equity financing in 2018 was 35% less than in 2017 – a decade-low $4.1 billion. 

A good chunk of that cash went to marijuana stocks, as dozens of companies emerged to take advantage of the pot legalization bill passed by the Canadian federal government. Whereas weed stock IPOs attracted $491.1 million in investment dollars in 2018, mining IPOs only accounted for $51.6 million, a startling drop from the $830 million in 2017.

That’s a lot of speculative capital pulled out of resource stocks. However it’s not all gloom and doom, according to TD Securities mining investment bankers, who say “current market conditions and historical precedents make them optimistic generalist investors will return in greater numbers to mining stocks,” Bloomberg reported:

“The current market is reminiscent of the late 90’s and early 2000’s, [TD Securities’ Deputy Chairman Rick] McCreary says. At the time, investors had low interest in mining, and companies found it hard to raise capital. That was followed by waves of consolidation and a mining bull run. A similar trend may be building as this ‘period of consolidation’ rolls on.”

Gold M&A 

As far as that goes, mining companies, especially in the gold space, have realized since the vicious 2012-16 bear market, they have cut as much as they can and the next step is to bring assets and companies together. On top of that, the top gold miners are running out of reserves, and are looking to replace them with high-margin projects that have the right combination of grade, size and infrastructure.

This explains Barrick combining with South Africa’s Randgold, the Barrick-Newmont joint venture in Nevada, the fusing of Newmont and Goldcorp, a $1-billion deal for Lundin Mining to acquire a Brazilian copper-gold mine from Yamana Gold, Newcrest’s 70% purchase of Imperial Metals’ Red Chris mine in British Columbia, and other recent examples of gold mining M&A.

Among December’s gold deals are Zijin Mining’s cash purchase of Continental Gold’s Buriticá project in Colombia, for CAD$1.3 billion; and a $770 million merger between two mid-tier gold miners, Equinox Gold and Leagold Mining. The latter arrangement will keep the Equinox name and create a company valued at $1.75 billion with six mines spread across Brazil, Mexico and the United States. 

Junior resource M&A? 

The goal of every junior resource investor is for the company(ies) they are invested in to get bought out, resulting in a 5, 10, even 20-bagger.

The question is, will the current round of mergers and acquisitions at the major and mid-tier level trickle down to the juniors? PwC appears hopeful. In its 2019 report â€˜Shifting Ground’ the mining consultancy states, 

The heightened level of deal activities, most of which have been in the gold sector, may well spark further moves among intermediate players seeking to grow into multi-project companies. A new phase of industry consolidation could pave the way for more exploration and mine development and boost investor interest and activity.

Another optimistic opinion comes from Tom Palmer, chief operating officer at Newmont, who told the Wall Street Journal that smaller players are waiting to see what the bigger miners sell once they have completed their mergers before they start their own M&A.

“Fast forward two or three years, there will be countless more” mergers, he said.

In fact we are already starting to see this happening. Nevada has witnessed the return of junior gold explorers, and majors, after a lull in activity between 2012 and 2016. According to an industry report, exploration in Nevada increased by 15% in 2017, with 19,040 new claims. The tide has continued to turn in mining’s favor, with 198,337 active claims as of January, 2019 – 7% more than in 2018.

In 2018 Idaho-based Hecla Mining snapped up Klondex Mines for US$462 million, delivering three more Nevada properties – Fire Creek, Midas and Hollister – to Hecla’s stable of mines and adding 162,000 gold-equivalent ounces to its annual production. 

Also in Nevada, last year Alio Gold paid Rye Patch Gold $128 million for the Vancouver-based company and its past-producing Florida Canyon mine. 

The 2019 creation of Nevada Gold Mines (the Barrick-Newmont JV) has piqued the interest of other companies looking to discover and develop new ounces in the golden state. Major miners with new projects include AngloGold Ashanti, Coeur Mining and Kinross Gold. For the details read Getchell’s Gold 

And for an inspiring story of junior mining success in Canada, look no further than Great Bear Resources. Working the historic Red Lake gold camp in Ontario, Great Bear’s drills discovered the “LP Fault Zone” this past May. That eureka moment, the realization that most of the gold on its property is structurally controlled, prompted a massive 90,000m drill program aimed at identifying the parameters. The discovery of three new gold zones with high-grade intercepts, along with the earlier nearby Hinge-Dixie Limb discoveries, caught the market’s attention; within 18 months, Great Bear’s stock catapulted 2,000%. 

Conclusion

I firmly believe that 2019 has been a pivotal year for junior mining. Coming out of 2018’s slump in several commodities, due mostly to the uncertainty associated with the US-China trade war, this year we saw very strong performances from gold, silver, copper, palladium, nickel and zinc – having correctly predicted price corrections for each.

While it’s disappointing not to see a rising tide of junior miner stock prices to accompany these bullish calls, we continue to believe.

After all, we want to own the cheapest most in demand metals we can find to reap the maximum coming rewards. That means buying it while it’s still in the ground.

The fact is junior resource companies – the owners of the world’s future mines – are on sale. If you like their management teams, their projects and their plans for 2020, perhaps now is the time to be acquiring a position.

Courtesy of Richard (Rick) Mills:
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https://aheadoftheherd.com/Newsletter/2020/Will-2020-be-junior-minings-year.html

Labrador Gold $LAB.ca Provides Review of 2019 Exploration and Outlines Plans for 2020 $RIO.ca $WHM.ca $SIC.ca $NXS.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 9:52 AM on Thursday, January 9th, 2020
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Labrador Gold Corp. (TSX-V: LAB) (“LabGold” or the “Company”) is pleased to provide a review of its exploration activities completed during 2019. During 2020, LabGold intends to test the continuity of recently discovered mineralization at its Hopedale Project with a drilling program.

Roger Moss, President and CEO stated: “Exploration on both of our Labrador Projects during 2019 continued to successfully define areas of gold mineralization. These include the discovery of a new gold showing with assays from 1.67 to 8.26 g/t gold in grab samples at the Hopedale Project. This is located 500 metres along strike from the known Thurber Dog gold showing within a broader three kilometre stretch of anomalous gold in rock and soil. We look forward to continuing our systematic exploration, including drilling, of this mineralized system in 2020.”

 2019 Hopedale Project Highlights

  • Discovered a new gold showing north of the Thurber Dog gold occurrence, grab samples from which assayed between 1.67 and 8.26 g/t Au.
  • The Thurber Dog gold occurrence has assays in grab and channel samples from below detection up to 7.866 g/t Au, with 5 samples greater than 1 g/t Au and 16 samples assaying greater than 0.1 g/t Au.
  • The discovery extends the potential strike length of gold mineralization by approximately 500 metres along strike to the north.The new showing occurs within a larger 3km trend of anomalous gold in rock and soil associated with the contact between mafic/ultramafic volcanic rocks and felsic volcanic rocks.

 2019 Ashuanipi Project Highlights

  • Discovered a gold enriched zone near a high grade (8,973ppb) soil sample taken in 2018.
  • The zone is defined by anomalous gold in both soil (below detection up to 1,746ppb Au and including 12 samples over 100ppb Au) and grab rock samples (below detection up to 2.35 g/t Au) that cover an area of 450 metres by 450 metres.A second area of gold mineralization associated with garnet-bearing gossanous gneiss also shows potential.
  • Grab rock samples show values from below detection to 0.68 g/t Au with 10 samples showing values greater than 0.1 g/t Au over an area of 200m by 120m within a larger anomalous area of gold in soil samples.

 Note that grab samples are selected samples and are not necessarily representative of mineralization on the properties. 

Location of the new showing, Thurber Dog, Thurber North and Thurber South occurrences within the 3km long mineralized Thurber trend:

New Showing with rusty zones due to the presence of pyrite and arsenopyrite:

What to expect in 2020

Hopedale Project

Exploration at Hopedale during 2020 will focus on determining the extent of the Thurber Dog mineralized trend. Such work would aim to fill in the gaps between showings over the three-kilometre strike length with sampling and VLF-EM surveys. LabGold also intends to carry out an initial drill program targeting prospective areas along this trend, including the new showing.

Ashuanipi Project

LabGold’s priority at Ashuanipi is to reach an agreement with the Matimekush-Lac John First Nation to enable continued exploration of the property. The 2019 election of the new Chief and Council has been challenged in Federal Court in Quebec with a court date scheduled for the end of February. As such, community engagement and negotiations are on hold until the court case is settled.

Borden Lake Extension Project

During 2019, Newmont Goldcorp announced the start of commercial production at their Borden Mine. The Borden Lake Extension project is located less than five kilometres from the Borden Mine along the southeast trend of the Borden Gold zone. Note that mineralization hosted on nearby properties is not necessarily indicative of mineralization that may be hosted on the Company’s property.

Given the start of mining at Borden, follow up of past results at the Borden Lake Extension project will be undertaken in 2020. Such work will likely include additional till sampling and geochemical surveys to better define the previously outlined anomalous zones as well as a reinterpretation of VLF-EM data using the latest inversion software. Due to the glacial cover in the area, overburden drilling, guided by results of this work, would be the best means to define targets for follow up diamond drilling.

Location of the BLE property and anomalous gold zones along trend to the southeast of Newmont-Goldcorp’s Borden Gold Zone.

 All samples were shipped to the Bureau Veritas laboratory in Vancouver, BC, where they were crushed and split and a 500g sub sample pulverized to 200 mesh. Samples of 30g were analyzed for gold by fire assay with an atomic absorption finish and another 15g sample for 36 elements by ultratrace ICP-MS (inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry) following an aqua regia digestion. Over limit samples (greater than 10g/t Au) are re-assayed using fire assay with a gravimetric finish. In addition to the QA-QC conducted by the laboratory, the Company routinely submits blanks, field duplicates and certified reference standards with batches of samples to monitor the quality of the analyses.

Roger Moss, PhD., P.Geo., is the qualified person responsible for all technical information in this release.

The Company gratefully acknowledges the Newfoundland and Labrador Ministry of Natural Resources’ Junior Exploration Assistance (JEA) Program for its financial support for exploration of the Ashuanipi property.

About Labrador Gold:

Labrador Gold is a Canadian based mineral exploration company focused on the acquisition and exploration of prospective gold projects in the Americas. In 2017 Labrador Gold signed a Letter of Intent under which the Company has the option to acquire 100% of the Ashuanipi property in northwest Labrador and the Hopedale property in eastern Labrador.

The Hopedale property covers much of the Florence Lake greenstone belt that stretches over 60 km. The belt is typical of greenstone belts around the world but has been underexplored by comparison. Initial work by Labrador Gold during 2017 show gold anomalies in soils and lake sediments over a 3 kilometre section of the northern portion of the Florence Lake greenstone belt in the vicinity of the known Thurber Dog gold showing where grab samples assayed up to 7.8g/t gold. In addition, anomalous gold in soil and lake sediment samples occur over approximately 40 kilometres along the southern section of the greenstone belt (see news release dated January 25, 2018 for more details).

The Ashuanipi gold project is located just 35 km from the historical iron ore mining community of Schefferville, which is linked by rail to the port of Sept Iles, Quebec in the south. The claim blocks cover large lake sediment gold anomalies that, with the exception of local prospecting, have not seen a systematic modern day exploration program. Results of the 2017 reconnaissance exploration program following up the lake sediment anomalies show gold anomalies in soils and lake sediments over a 15 kilometre long by 2 to 6 kilometre wide north-south trend and over a 14 kilometre long by 2 to 4 kilometre wide east-west trend. The anomalies appear to be broadly associated with magnetic highs and do not show any correlation with specific rock types on a regional scale (see news release dated January 18, 2018). This suggests a possible structural control on the localization of the gold anomalies. Historical work 30 km north on the Quebec side led to gold intersections of up to 2.23 grams per tonne (g/t) Au over 19.55 metres (not true width) (Source: IOS Services Geoscientifiques, 2012, Exploration and geological reconnaissance work in the Goodwood River Area, Sheffor Project, Summer Field Season 2011). Gold in both areas appears to be associated with similar rock types.

The Company has 57,039,022 common shares issued and outstanding and trades on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol LAB.

For more information please contact:
Roger Moss, President and CEO
Tel: 416-704-8291
Or visit our website at: www.labradorgold.com
Twitter: @LabGoldCorp

SPONSOR: Affinity Metals $AAF.ca – 12-Year Breakout in Mining Stocks Relative to Gold $SII.ca $TUD.ca $GTT.ca $AMK.ca $OSK.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 2:39 PM on Wednesday, January 8th, 2020

Sponsor: Affinity Metals (TSX-V: AFF) a Canadian mineral exploration company building a strong portfolio of mineral projects in North America. The Corporation’s flagship property is the Drill ready Regal Property near Revelstoke, BC. Recent sampling encountered bonanza grade silver, zinc, and lead with many samples reaching assay over-limits. Further assaying of over-limits has been initiated, results will be reported once received. Click Here for More Info

Excerpts from Crescat Capitals November Newsletter:

Precious Metals

Precious metals are poised to benefit from what we consider to be the best macro set up we’ve seen in our careers. The stars are all aligning. We believe strongly that this time monetary policy will come at a cost. Look in the chart below at how the new wave of global money printing just initiated by the Fed in response to the Treasury market funding crisis is highly likely to pull depressed gold prices up with it.

The gold and silver mining industry endured a severe bear market from 2011 to 2015 and have formed a strong base over the last four years.

The imbalance between historically depressed commodity prices relative to record overvalued US stocks remains at the core of our macro views. On the long side, we believe strongly commodities offer tremendous upside potential on many fronts. Precious metals remain our favorite. We view gold as the ultimate haven asset to likely outperform in an environment of either a downturn in the business cycle, rising global currency wars, implosion of fiat currencies backed by record indebted government, or even a full-blown inflationary set up. These scenarios are all possible. Our base case is that governments and central banks will keep their pedals to the metal to attempt to fend off credit implosion or to mop up after one has already occurred until inflation becomes a persistent problem.

The gold and silver mining industry is precisely where we see one of the greatest ways to express this investment thesis. These stocks have been in a severe bear market from 2011 to 2015 and have been formed a strong base over the last four years. They are offer and incredibly attractive deep-value opportunity and appear to be just starting to break out this year. We have done a deep dive in this sector and met with over 40 different management teams this year. Combining that work with our proprietary equity models, we are finding some of the greatest free-cash-flow growth and value opportunities in the market today unrivaled by any other industry. We have also found undervalued high-quality exploration assets that will make excellent buyout candidates.

We recently point out this 12-year breakout in mining stocks relative to gold now looks as solid as a rock. In our view, this is just the beginning of a major bull market for this entire industry. We encourage investors to consider our new Crescat Precious Metals SMA strategy which is performing extremely well this year.

“This is just the beginning of a major bull market for this entire industry”

Zero Discounting for Inflation Risk Today

With historic Federal debt relative to GDP and large deficits into the future as far as the eye can see, if the global financial markets cannot absorb the increase in Treasury debt, the Fed will be forced to monetize it even more. The problem is that the Fed’s panic money printing at this point in the economic cycle may hasten the unwinding of the imbalances it is so desperate to maintain because it has perversely fed the last-gasp melt up of speculation in already record over-valued and extended equity and corporate credit markets. It is reminiscent of when the Fed injected emergency cash into the repo market at the peak of the tech bubble at the end of 1999 to fend off a potential Y2K computer glitch that led to that market and business cycle top.
After 40 years of declining inflation expectations in the US, there is a major disconnect today between portfolio positioning, valuation, and economic reality. Too much of the investment world is long the “risk parity” trade to one degree or another, long stocks paired with leveraged long bonds, a strategy that has back-tested great over the last 40 years, but one that would be a disaster in a secular rising inflation environment.

With historic Federal debt relative to GDP and large deficits into the future as far as the eye can see, rising long-term inflation, and the hidden tax thereon, is the default, bi-partisan plan for the US government’s future funding regardless of who is in the White House and Congress after the 2020 elections. The market could start discounting this sooner rather than later.
The Fed’s excessive money printing may only reinforce the unraveling of financial asset imbalances today as it leads to rising inflation expectations and thereby a sell-off in today’s highly over-valued long duration assets including Treasury bonds and US equities, particularly insanely overvalued growth stocks. We believe we are in the vicinity of a major US stock market and business cycle peak.

Source:”Running Hot”

Courtesy of Crescat Capital: https://www.crescat.net/running-hot/

Thanks to

Kevin C. Smith, CFA
Chief Investment Officer

Tavi Costa
Portfolio Manager

Lomiko Metals $LMR.ca 2020s: The Decade of the Electric Vehicle Revolution $CJC.ca $SRG.ca $NGC.ca $LLG.ca $GPH.ca $NOU.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 2:03 PM on Wednesday, January 8th, 2020

SPONSOR: Lomiko Metals is focused on the exploration and development of minerals for the new green economy such as lithium and graphite. Lomiko owns 80% of the high-grade La Loutre graphite Property , Lac Des Iles Graphite Property and the 100% owned Quatre Milles Graphite Property. Lomiko is uniquely poised to supply the growing EV battery market. Click Here For More Information

Graphite Market to hit $27.03 Billion by 2025 – Analysis by Demand, Size, Share, Price, Growth Drivers and Business Opportunities: Adroit Market Research

The staggering growth in hybrid and fully electric vehicles to be an influential driving factor for the futuristic graphite industry expansion. Synthetic graphite market is projected to account for a revenue share of >85% of the total market in 2025

The global graphite market projected to be valued at around USD 27.03 billion by 2025. Furthermore, global graphite demand is anticipated to grow at a remarkable pace at a CAGR of 6.3% over the forecast period. Graphite finds numerous applications in refractories, steel making, foundries, as lubricating agent among many others. Presently, usage of graphite in car batteries for electric and hybrid electric vehicles is estimated to significantly boost the demand for graphite over the forecast period.

The Adroit Market Research recently published its research study on the graphite industry. The report covers all the major aspects of the graphite industry. The study is a comprehensive dataset which also includes qualitative aspects pertaining to the graphite industry. The market data is provided from 2015-2025 where 2015 to 2017 is the historic data, 2018 is considered as the base year and forecast period is from 2019 to 2025. The report provides a holistic view of the supply chain of the graphite industry which includes insights relevant to all the players in the graphite market value chain.

The research report on global graphite market is segmented on the basis of type, application, and region. The report includes the industry landscape in the form of market drivers, restraints and market opportunities. The study also highlights the impacts of related industries on graphite and analyses the market for various aspects using the Porter’s five forces analysis, PESTEL analysis and value chain.

Graphite is a naturally occurring allotropic form of carbon. It is a non-metal with several beneficial properties such as high melting point, thermal resistance, and high electrical and thermal conductivity. Also, graphite is available in adifferent form, owing to which it finds high usage across several industry verticals.

Graphite is either derived naturally or produced synthetically. Natural graphite mines are majorly found in China which is followed by Brazil and India. Flake, amorphous, and vein graphite are the major types of natural graphite forms which are commercially available at present. Flake graphite accounts for the highest demand in the global graphite industry with ~1.6x times growth expected further during the forecast period.

Synthetic graphite is produced by using several processes such as pyrolitic process and graphitization owing to which price of this type is much higher than natural graphite. Synthetic graphite is of high purity which is used in graphite electrodes, carbon fibers, and carbon blocks among other applications. Graphite electrode is projected to continue its dominance owing to the high degree of usage in steel making process.

By application, the batteries segment is projected to offer substantial growth owing to its applicability for new generation electric and hybrid electric vehicles. Constant technological innovations for making fully autonomous cars is projected to emerge as the biggest application which will drive the future demand for graphite. The battery segment is estimated to show a staggering growth with a 7.9% CAGR over the forecast period.

By region, Asia Pacific is estimated to continue its dominance owing to high demand from end use segments such as construction, automotive, and packaging industries. Increasing spending power is projected to further support the growth. North America and Europe are projected to show positive growth owing to high demand for hybrid and fully electric vehicles. Middle East is also projected to offer lucrative opportunities owing to high demand in the automotive industry.

The global graphite market is expected to be highly competitive, owing to a significant fragmentation in the industry. Large number of players are present across the value chain which are into manufacturing of synthetic graphite types. Boom in the natural graphite has also led to a growth in number of mining companies outside China. Showa Denko K.K., Toray Industries, Inc., Teijin Limited, Northern Graphite Corporation, Asbury Carbons are some of the key players in the graphite industry. Acquisition and capacity expansion are the key strategies followed by these players to maximize their presence in market.

For more information on the Company, please visit our website at www.lomiko.com, contact A. Paul Gill at 604-729-5312 or email: [email protected]

Loncor $LN.ca – Gold Closes at Nearly 7-Year High $ABX.ca $TECK.ca $RSG $NGT.to

Posted by AGORACOM at 10:22 AM on Tuesday, January 7th, 2020
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Sponsor: Loncor is a Canadian gold exploration company focused on two projects in the DRC – the Ngayu and North Kivu projects, both have historic gold production. Exploration at the Ngayu project is currently being undertaken by Loncor’s joint venture partner Barrick Gold. The Ngayu project is 200km southwest of the Kibali gold mine, operated by Barrick, which produced 800,000 ounces of gold in 2018. Barrick manages and funds exploration at the Ngayu project until the completion of a pre-feasibility study on any gold discovery meeting the investment criteria of Barrick. Click Here for More Info

  • Recent strong price gains are a bullish upside technical ‘breakout’ from recent trading levels, to suggest still more price gains are very likely in the coming weeks and months, or longer
  • Bullion’s price has benefited from heightened political tensions but also has enjoyed softness in the dollar,

Gold futures on Monday marked their highest settlement since April of 2013, as the killing last week of a top Iranian military commander, Qassem Soleimani, reverberated through financial markets, momentarily upending appetite for assets considered risky and boosting traditional haven assets like gold.

February gold GCG20, +0.23%  on Comex added $16.40, a gain of 1.1%, to settle at $1,568.80 an ounce, after it briefly touched $1,590.90 in intraday action. The most active contract saw its highest settlement since April 9, 2013, according to FactSet data. Gold also rose for a ninth consecutive session, its longest period of straight gains since an 11-day streak that ran from December 2018 to January 2019.

March silver SIH20, +0.28%  edged up by 2.8 cents, or 0.2%, to finish at $18.179 an ounce, pulling back from a high of $18.55, which was the highest intraday level since late September.

Last week, the most-active gold contract gained 2.3%, its second week of gains, while silver prices added 1.1%, also landing it higher for two consecutive weeks.

Read: Why geopolitical events are not a good reason to buy gold

“History shows that a big spike up in prices amid higher volatility tends to produce near-term market tops sooner rather than later, after that initial spike up,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco.com. “That means in the coming days the gold market could put in a ‘near-term’ top that will last for a moderate period of time.”

“However, for the longer-term investors in gold, it’s important to note that the recent strong price gains are a bullish upside technical ‘breakout’ from recent trading levels, to suggest still more price gains are very likely in the coming weeks and months, or longer,” he said in daily commentary.

On Sunday, the Iraqi parliament passed a nonbinding resolution to expel American troops in the wake of the U.S. drone strike that killed Soleimani, leader of the foreign wing of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, on Iraqi soil.

That act has intensified tensions in the Middle East, boosting the appeal of assets considered safe during global political conflicts.

Trump has threatened harsh sanctions against Iraq if it expels U.S. troops, and doubled down on earlier comments threatening to target Iranian cultural sites if Iran strikes back. Iran has said it would no longer honor the 2015 nuclear deal with a group of world powers, which the U.S. backed out of in 2018.

Oil prices climbed and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.30%  and S&P 500 index SPX, -0.27%  opened broadly lower but turned mixed in Monday dealings.

Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.24% was up at 1.7917%, after tapping a four-week low on Friday after the Iranian military leader’s killing.

Bullion’s price has benefited from heightened political tensions but also has enjoyed softness in the dollar, which has occurred as investors shift to Swiss franc USDCHF, +0.3719% and Japanese yen USDJPY, +0.09%  amid the potential for political turmoil.

The U.S. ICE Dollar Index DXY, +0.33%, a measure of the buck against a half-dozen currencies, was down 0.2% at 96.661 and has posted weekly declines in the last two weeks.

A weaker buck can make gold more attractive to buyers using other currencies, and lower bond yields can also help boost the comparative appeal of gold against government debt.

“Gold continues its breakout higher as it is now at the highest level since April 2013,” wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, in a Monday research report.

“I remain bullish but caution not to buy it on geopolitical concerns because as stated they are usually temporary. Buy it instead because the dollar continues to weaken and real yields continue to fall,” he said.

Among other metals, March copper HGH20, -0.11%  added 0.1% to $2.79 a pound. April PLJ20, -0.34%  shed 2.4% to $966.20 an ounce, but March palladium PAH20, +0.87%  added 1.7% to $1,989.60 an ounce. Palladium futures notched a record high, as they’ve done each day so far this year and many times throughout 2019.

The platinum group markets are “not concerned that recent geopolitical events could derail the global economy and therefore demand for auto catalysts,” analysts at Zaner Metals, wrote in daily note. “Instead, it is apparent that platinum and palladium are being considered as safe haven instruments, with classic physical market fundamentals being pushed to the sidelines.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-price-flirts-with-1600-and-highest-settlement-in-nearly-7-years-2020-01-06

American Creek Resources $AMK.ca Recognises 2019 as a Major Turning Point; Looks Forward to Major Developments in 2020 $TUD.ca $SII.ca $GTT.ca $AFF.ca $SEA.ca $SA $PVG.ca $AOT.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 9:35 AM on Tuesday, January 7th, 2020
  • American Creek has strengthened its position both financially and strategically
  • Treaty Creek will be advancing in a major way
  • Eric Sprott made two separate investments of $1,000,000 making Mr. Sprott the largest external investor in Treaty Creek

American Creek Resources Ltd. (TSXV: AMK) (OTC Pink: ACKRF) (“American Creek”) (“the Corporation”) is pleased to report that 2019 was a pivotal year for the company which is now positioned to take full advantage of the precious metals bull run that many experts believe we are only in the early stages of, even though gold hit a 7 year high of $1,580 this week. Looking back, on the first day of trading in 2019 AMK closed at $0.03 and on the last day of trading in 2019 AMK closed at $0.09 representing a significant annual increase. Management envisions positive developments to continue in 2020 through the geological advancements of its properties including the potential for a world class resource on the Treaty Creek JV project located in the “Golden Triangle” of Northwestern British Columbia.

Darren Blaney, CEO of American Creek stated: “This past year was a significant turning point for the company and will be the catalyst for more exciting developments in 2020. The company has strengthened its position both financially and strategically and is poised to benefit from not only a strengthening gold and silver market but also from the investment community becoming more aware of the company’s projects and potential. The Treaty Creek project will be advancing in a major way and several of our other projects including the Dunwell and Gold Hill will also be the focus of attention this year. We very much look forward to 2020 and wish all of our shareholders the very best this upcoming year!”

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Image of the Goldstorm Zone found along the base of this hill at Treaty Creek.

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Financial Position

The company raised over $3.3 million in 2019 through common and flow-through shares along with the exercise of warrants. Through these events the company was able to strengthen existing alliances and create a number of new highly strategic relationships bringing strength, credibility and future increased exposure to American Creek.

Of note, Canadian billionaire Eric Sprott made two separate investments of $1,000,000 into American Creek as well as an additional $8,400,000 investment in our JV partner Tudor Gold for the development of the Treaty Creek property. This makes Mr. Sprott the largest external investor in Treaty Creek. He recently stated that he is “very excited about the opportunity there as the project has a great shot at having 20 million ounces.”

Geological Position

TREATY CREEK

The 2019 drilling at Treaty Creek was very successful and produced some of the most significant gold intercepts in the exploration industry. The focus has been on the gold enriched Goldstorm Zone which is on trend with, and part of, the same geological system as Seabridge Gold’s neighboring KSM deposits. With approximately one billion tonnes of gold enriched rock identified (potential for a resource calculation in 2020), the Goldstorm has potential to become a world class gold deposit. The 2019 drilling was designed to define a gold deposit with the potential of being open pit mined. The upcoming 2020 drilling is designed to significantly expand the deposit as the system is open to the north, the east and at depth.

The Treaty Creek Project is a joint venture with Tudor Gold owning 3/5th and acting as project operator. American Creek and Teuton Resources each have a 1/5th interest in the project. American Creek and Teuton are both fully carried until such time as a Production Notice is issued, at which time they are required to contribute their respective 20% share of development costs. Until such time, Tudor is required to fund all exploration and development costs while both American Creek and Teuton have “free rides”.

DUNWELL MINE

A maiden drill program was initiated in 2019 on the 100% owned Dunwell Mine project located in the heart of the Golden Triangle a few kilometers outside of Stewart, BC. This past producing high grade mine (gold, silver, lead, zinc) holds tremendous potential and may have the best logistics found in the Golden Triangle. Assays from the program are currently pending.

GOLD HILL AND OTHER PROJECTS

The Gold Hill property is believed to contain the principle source lode for Canada’s fourth largest placer deposit located downstream (Wild Horse River Gold Rush) which produced over 48 tonnes gold (and is still producing). Work is planned for 2020 which will advance this highly prospective project.

American Creek also holds several other high potential projects in other prospective areas of BC such as the Austruck-Bonanza, Ample Goldmax, Silver Side, and Glitter King.

Marketing

American Creek will be going to great lengths in 2020 to increase the Corporation’s exposure and recognition. Near future events including attending many conferences including the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference (Vancouver), AME Roundup (Vancouver), Red Cloud (Toronto), Raise Capital (Toronto), and the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention (Toronto).

About American Creek

American Creek is a Canadian mineral exploration company with a strong portfolio of gold and silver properties in British Columbia. Three of those properties are located in the prolific “Golden Triangle”; the Treaty Creek and Electrum joint venture projects with Tudor Gold/Walter Storm as well as the 100% owned past producing Dunwell Mine.

More information about the Treaty Creek Project can be found here: https://americancreek.com/index.php/projects/treaty-creek/home

An exploration program is ongoing on American Creek’s 100% owned Dunwell Mine property located near Stewart. More information can be found here: https://americancreek.com/index.php/projects/dunwell-mine

The Corporation also holds the Gold Hill, Austruck-Bonanza, Ample Goldmax, Silver Side, and Glitter King properties located in other prospective areas of the province.

For further information please contact Kelvin Burton at: Phone: 403 752-4040 or Email: [email protected]. Information relating to the Corporation is available on its website at www.americancreek.com

CLIENT FEATURE: Vertical Exploration $VERT.ca Partners with AREV Brands to Distribute Wollastonite to the Cannabis and Hemp Industries $TORR.ca $FA.ca $WEED.ca $CGC $ACB $APH $CRON.ca $HEXO.ca $TRST.ca $OGI.ca

Posted by AGORACOM at 7:52 PM on Monday, January 6th, 2020
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  • Definitive distribution agreement to partner on the sale of Vertical’s wollastonite from its world-class St-Onge Deposit in place.
  • Supplying the fast growing cannabis and hemp industries.
  • Vertical’s high quality Wollastonite has been shown to be beneficial to cannabis plants in a variety of ways
  • In every case the most optimal results occurred with an admixture rate of 10% to 15% wollastonite to the growth medium.
  • The high-grade St-Onge Wollastonite deposit has pit-constrained mineral resources of: 7,155,000 tonnes Measured@ 36.20% Wollastonite & 6,926,000 tonnes Indicated@ 37.04%
  • B.C. Buds Testing Confirmed Wollastonite is critical to marijuana growers
  • Engaged AGRINOVA over the past year to conduct research and testing of Vertical’s St-Onge wollastonite on a range of important agricultural end uses.

WOLLASTONITE

  • St-Onge-Wollastonite Deposit located approximately 90 kilometres Northwest of the city of Saguenay, in St-Onge township, in the Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean region of Quebec, Canada.
  • Wollastonite is a calcium inosilicate mineral that may contain small amounts of ironmagnesium, and manganese substituting for calcium
  • Research and testing in the Phase 1 program for use in cannabis growth was managed and monitored by AGRINOVA, a highly-regarded Center for Research and Innovation in Agriculture in Quebec

St-Onge-Wollastonite Deposit:

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